Free Movement
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Updates, commentary and analysis on UK immigration and asylum law. Sign up to our weekly email newsletter here:
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Looks like we’re gonna have to update this one again 🙄 freemovement.org.uk/general-grou...
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Onto returns, voluntary returns have continued to decrease and enforced returns to increase, the latter saw a 22% year on year increase. This is attributed to factors including the reallocation of 1,000 staff to immigration enforcement last year (from where, i am curious?)
There was a 17% increase in the number of people being detained (22,661) in the y/e Sept 2025. Over half of the people who left detention were released on immigration bail and just under half (43%) of people leaving detention were removed from the UK
Looking at students, in the y/e March 2025 there has been around one dependant for every 20 main applicants. This is a decrease from around 6 dependants for every 20 main applicants in y/e September 2023. To watch: what if any impact will the new levy have? www.gov.uk/government/c...
Interesting to note that the Home Office attributes the fall in work route grants not just to fewer applications but also a drop in grant rate (interesting to me because I am currently working on a challenge to a very poor refusal)
The earned settlement consultation makes clear that the government also has access to citizenship in its sights. Too early to see now of course, but I would like to see a significant spike in naturalisation grants starting next year - people who can and want to apply should probably do so.
Of the non-EUSS cases, the biggest group is work, then family and then refugee. If the earned settlement changes are applied people who are already here then the refugee figures would be expected to drop significantly and immediately, size of potential decrease in other groups is currently unclear
One to start monitoring more closely given last week's news: settlement www.gov.uk/government/s... Vast majority are via the EUSS
Anyway, here's the main chart. That peak in partner applications was rush before the minimum income requirement was increased
Moving on to family applications (www.gov.uk/government/s...) as noted above, the data here was already poor but they seem to have managed to make it worse
There has been a 13% year on year increse in people claiming asylum. 41% (45,183) arrived via the Channel, 11% (12,176) arrived via other irregular routes, 38% (41,461) were able to enter with a visa for another route
There has been a 40% year on year increase in irregular arrivals. Most are people arriving across the Channel, there have been decreases in people detected arriving by other methods