Did Scotland’s 48% income tax really lose revenue rather than raise it? Our Co-Director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social spoke to Holyrood Sources podcast about why the claim doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Watch the full discussion (from 20 mins): youtu.be/j03__bAAOGk?...

This matters because small, entirely plausible changes to the model's assumptions can substantially change the estimated revenue effect. Under some scenarios, the estimated revenue loss disappears altogether.

Using an alternative HMRC dataset leads to the same conclusion. Growth in Scotland's highest incomes has historically been much more volatile than elsewhere in the UK.

Historical HMRC data show that growth in Scotland's top incomes has often differed markedly from the rest of the UK - including before Scotland adopted different income tax rates. That makes simple comparisons much less reliable.

“Much of the reporting on this has been quite misleading.” Our co-director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social spoke to BBC ScotCast on claims that Scotland’s 48% tax rate has lost money.

Without a more compelling vision for economic renewal, Andy Burnham will struggle to succeed where his predecessors have failed, our co-director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social writes in @opendemocracy.net. Read the article in full: www.opendemocracy.net/scotland-has...

Scotland's new Parliament will be decisive for the country's just transition. Our new briefing sets out five priorities on climate and nature to move beyond ambition towards delivery. 🧵

Devolving power away from London is Andy Burnham’s big idea. In our new blog, we look at how devolution has benefited Scotland — and what it could deliver for England ⬇️

🚨 NEW: Devolution is Andy Burnham’s big idea for Britain — but critics argue Scotland is proof it doesn’t work. Our new blog debunks the myths and identifies key lessons for England. 👇 Link below

The transition to net zero represents one of the greatest economic opportunities Scotland has seen in generations. But will Scotland’s new MSPs seize it? Now is the time to close the gap between bold ambition and delivery. Our new briefing sets out how. www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...

For Scotland's new Parliament to succeed, it must move from long-term ambition to credible implementation. What should its priorities be? Read our new blog by @hannawheatley.bsky.social: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/520-wh...

NEW: May’s election reaffirmed Scotland's commitment to delivering a just transition. What must the new Parliament do to deliver this in practice? Our new briefing identifies the key policy priorities for the new parliamentary term 🧵

This is why Scotland shifted from annual targets to carbon budgets in its new Climate Change Plan. But slow progress in recent years means a lot of ground must now be made up. Success depends on turning ambition into delivery across transport, buildings, land use and industry.

Our research shows that a just transition could create 40,000 more energy jobs than will be lost, but it won't happen by accident. 🎥 Watch our 1-minute summary by @jujupepe.bsky.social 📗 Read our report: www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...

Scotland’s new parliament faces major questions on climate action, economic security and public investment. Future Economy Scotland will continue publishing analysis and commentary on the challenges ahead. Read our latest newsletter & sign up for updates👇 mailchi.mp/736475c7cbe5...

If we want a fairer and greener Scotland, we must be honest about how we pay for it. As members of #TaxJusticeScotland, we’re urging the First Minister to use the powers he has to tax wealth more fairly. Read the open letter: taxjustice.scot/wp-content/u...

Watch @lmacfarlane.bsky.social explain more, and read the full report: www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...

Polling was clear: the defining issue of this election was a broken economy. If the new Parliament is serious about economic renewal, it must embrace a far bolder approach to policymaking. 📖 Read our latest blog: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/489-a-...

The SNP have secured a fifth consecutive election victory — but what does this mean for Scotland’s just transition? In short: The SNP committed to net zero, renewables and support for workers in transition, but questions remain around delivery, funding and long-term investment.

The Scottish election campaign is over. The difficult part starts now. Scotland’s new parliament faces: - Squeezed public finances - Pressure on public services - Mounting climate pressures - Political fragmentation - Persistent poverty and inequality

Today's Scottish election comes at a pivotal moment for Scotland’s just transition to net zero. We've looked at the manifestos of Scotland’s main political parties to assess how credible & deliverable their plans are in responding to the challenge. Read here: www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...

It’s election week 🗳️ Our report compares party manifestos across four areas: 🌍 Climate and nature 🏦 Funding the transition ⚖️ Poverty and inequality 👷‍♀️ Labour market and economy Read the full analysis: www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...

£17,000 - roughly how much more the average full-time worker in Scotland would be earning today if pre-2008 wage trends had continued. Instead, weak pay growth has coincided with steep rises in essential costs. Read our latest Election Spotlight for more: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/488-el...

Our analysis shows that if wages had instead grown as normal since 2008, the average worker would be nearly £17,000 a year better off. For many households, this is the difference between economic security and living on the breadline. Read our analysis in full: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/488-el...

Since 2021, median earnings have risen by 31%. But the price of many essentials has increased far faster. 🥚 Eggs: +61% 🍫 Chocolate: +54% 🥩 Beef: +66% 🔥 Natural gas: +70% 🫒 Olive oil: +119%

For many households, £320 a week is not abstract. It is the difference between financial security and constant pressure. Read the full analysis by @jujupepe.bsky.social, @hannawheatley.bsky.social and @lmacfarlane.bsky.social. 👉 www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/488-el...

Today, the average full-time worker in Scotland earns £40,238 a year. If wages had continued to grow at their pre-2008 trend, that figure would be £56,918. A gap of nearly £17,000 a year.

🚨Scotland’s wages have been stuck for nearly two decades. In our latest Election Spotlight, we calculate Scotland's missing pay rise, examine why living standards have stalled, and show why pay is central to the coming election. 🧵

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🌱 It's time to accept reality - private finance isn't going to fix Scotland's nature crisis. It's time for a reset in Scotland’s approach to nature restoration. New blog by @hannawheatley.bsky.social www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/460-ti...

EXCLUSIVE in @theguardian.com: a £100m nature finance deal collapsed - & MSPs weren’t told. Featuring our work on nature restoration and a new guest blog, it’s clear: private investment isn’t going to deliver the nature restoration Scotland needs. Read coverage: www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...