Henry Fung
@henryfung
transit, gambling, and sustainable suburbanism
Not really because I think they are going off prediction markets are too complicated + weird ass parlays that pay big and also can’t really be constructed on a prediction market, which also have high house edges. I think prediction markets are great for yes/no bets though.
These are the rules. I guess there is a risk Utah could call themselves into session between now and November 1, redistrict, and not have a court strike them down. But given the primaries were a month ago I don’t see it happening. I don’t trust them enough to drop four figures on this though.
For this market literally it seems like one random day someone read the rules more closely, decided the market should resolve NO rather than the YES everyone else was assuming, and that momentum led to the current price.
The other Kalshi risk is settlement risk. For instance, by rule this should settle NO because the courts drew the lines and not the legislature. But why is this trading at 85 cents when it should be closer to the 97 cents of California?
My public comment career has now gone to the next level since on Friday morning I will be testifying to the IRS regarding the definition of “reporting period” for purposes of calculating gambling wins and losses, and the 90% loss limitation.
The 6,470,104 people who voted for Gavin Newsom should take away Murrieta's power and disincorporate them back into Riverside County.
The chuds in Murrieta apparently have put on the agenda to ask their colleagues to use taxpayer dollars to draft a "local control" ballot initiative in the 2028 statewide election. murrieta.legistar.com/MeetingDetai...
They used to send catalogs in the mail to tell teenagers to start something
Love the house that uses the Skelly Halloween decoration as an all purpose hook for any holiday or celebration.
This was me for the MONTH. The AC is broken but I have a blade fan running much of the time I’m in the house.
Riverside Transit Agency “celebrates” Juneteenth by making sure no one that needs their service can use it.
Interestingly at first they used traditional pan African flag colors of red yellow and green before switching to red white and blue.
Victor Valley Transit Authority in California (serving roughly a half million people) is celebrating “freedom, unity, and progress”… by not running buses that day and even putting a wrap on their bus stating so!
Here is an example of a red shift in LA County. The former mayor of Pomona, Elliott Rothman, who was endorsed by the Democratic Party, may have lost his bid to get back on the dais in his council district as Yvonne Cobarrubias has taken the lead from 228 votes down to up by 8 (!)
Can this position please pay out soon rather than me waiting until November???
What is going on in Beverly Hills where two of the three vote centers with over a 45 minute wait are?
Carls Jr combos are easily 50% more expensive than equivalent combos at McDonald’s or Wendy’s for a similar quality. $17 for a medium combo of mediocre fast food after tax is absurd.
Another silly Wikipedia fight, this time adding Chad Bianco's legal first name, which is Johnny, according to his tax returns and Transparent California. People keep deleting it thinking that I am deadnaming him.
I guess Bob Dylan is doing the casino circuit now that he is in his 80’s.