Independent Voices
@indyvoices
Producer of pro-independence information, quotes & references. Adopted Dad & Cancer survivor. Proud to be Woke (alert to injustice in society). Occasionally ranty!
Remember when supporters of Palestine Action rampaged through the city streets intimidating innocent people and damaging shops? No. Me neither. Who exactly are the terrorists right now?
Looking at changes in Westminster voting intention since the SP election, there are 2 interesting points: 🔵Reform UK have dropped by almost 5 pts, but most of their loss has gone to the Tories not Labour 🟡The SNP vote share has survived the Murrell fiasco (they've even nabbed 1pt from the Greens)
Hoping this very Scottish weather in Massachusetts continues for the Scotland game tomorrow 🏴🌧️🏴 #SCOvMAR
Staying in Manchester by the Sea, and have visited Gloucester, Salem and Rockport too. The friendliness and hospitality of the locals has been incredible. Everyone says hello and most want to stop and chat.
Looking at unweighted samples from Panelbase/ Norstat polls gives us insights into demographic changes since 2014 #indyref. These changes are over-exaggerated, possibly due to ‘buyers’ regret’ among No voters, but still illustrate the variation in mortality rates between Yes and No.
BRIAN TAYLOR ‘They’re scared they’ll lose it, that’s why (the UK Government) won’t allow it.’ #Indyref2
Down at the bottom of the page there's an option to change location.
Finally got round to doing my projection for #SP26 result. Based on various analysis including: @devolvedelections.bsky.social @ballotbox.scot, the Yougov MRP regional list figures (sample size) and a few hunches. A bit pessimistic regarding RUK, who I have winning Ayr. Good for Greens though!
An unscientific dip into #SP26 election day based on my morning 6km walk around Newlands, Cathcart & Battlefield. Posters: Newlands: 2x SNP Cathcart: 0 Battlefield: 3x Greens Activists: Newlands: 0 Cathcart: 2x Jehovah’s Witnesses Battlefield: 1x Green outside polling station
Had a look at the #Survation #SP26 MRP. There are multiple oddities which clash wildly with #Yougov MRP. ➡️RUK winning Airdrie but 10 pts off winning Banffshire 🥀LAB winning Paisley (Yougov has SNP by 18pts) 🔵CON coming 3rd in Eastwood (Yougov has them win) 🟡SNP winning Ed N (LibDems 3rd!) Bizarre!
The final Yougov MRP #SP26 poll with fieldwork up to yesterday and a sample of 6,543 suggests a pro-independence majority is very likely. 'In 99% of our simulations, the SNP and their fellow pro-independence Greens combined have more than enough seats to govern.' Several seats on a knife edge.
FFS Another MRP from dodgy pollster More in Common! Take with a lorry load of salt!
Only six in ten independence supporters plan to vote for the two main pro-indy parties in #SP26. And nearly a quarter of Yes supporters say they'll put their cross against a unionist party. This data is from the April Norstat poll.
The latest Norstat #Indyref2 poll shows a lead for Yes. However, it underestimates the scale of that lead by applying weighting based on the 2014 referendum. If we reweight for realistic current demographics, the Yes lead is 13 points, with No dipping below 40%. Excluding D/K it's: 👍Yes 57% 👎No 43%
Nice work, Allan, as always! I finally got round to chucking you some money for your fundraiser. Apologies for the delay! can I just check is this a standard Survation weighted poll, like the Diffley one?
UK Labour's woes look to be benefiting Reform UK as they become the main unionist challenger to the SNP across large swathes of Scotland. But it will be John Swinney who is quietly ordering the champagne. An SNP v RUK head to head on average sees a 6pt net SNP boost from tactical voting. #SP26
Unionist tactical voting is more evident where it’s a SNP v Labour fight. While Green voters still back the SNP in large numbers, less than a third of unionist tactical voters would support the SNP against UK Labour.
So, it seems tactical voting won’t help Reform UK very much. The data from the Diffley poll shows that nearly half of the tactical votes from unionist parties would go to the SNP in a 2-horse race with Reform. The trick for the SNP will be to big Reform up as the main challenger.
Fascinating to delve a bit deeper into the tactical voting data in that Diffley poll. In a scenario where it’s a fight between SNP and Reform UK, the SNP adds 17pts to its vote, while RUK adds 13pts. Supporters of unionist Lab & LibDems break about 2 to 1 for SNP. Tories back RUK, Greens back SNP.
Net favourability has declined over the past 6 months for all party leaders, but Sweet Jesus! look at those Starmer figures! He's overtaken Farage in unpopularity. He's also dragged poor Branch official Sarwar down with him. Sarwar is now more unpopular than the (not exactly stellar) Kemi Badenoch.
No sign of any erosion in support for the SNP. Latest Yougov Westminster polling shows the biggest lead since October 2025. Reform UK continuing to drop.
Some very interesting figures from Survation about the potential for tactical voting. SNP can benefit from seats where they can highlight the threat of RUK. For all unionist parties, the threat of SNP winning maximises their votes. Easier for Tories and LibDems than Labour (due to 3-ways with RUK)
Looks like Scotland in Union ran a poll during early March, which (according to the Survation contents page) includes SP voting intention. The Tables for the SP questions aren't published though.
Yes but what do Labour voters think about Scottish Government policies? Wait..., what? Interesting that as Labour Government has not yet fully implemented any of these policies in England.