Constitutionally, the economically insecure are more likely to favour independence over other constitutional settlements, with supporters of the status quo and abolish feeling the most secure. This is true across all ages but particularly large gap in middle age.

Insecurity was predictive of moving away from Labour and the Tories to Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in May 2026. Plaid and Reform voters feel equally insecure, but feel very different about politics 👇

Insecurity peaks sharply in middle age, echoing the British-wide pattern. Renters, disabled adults, and those with no savings are hit hardest. Social renters with no savings: 60%+ economically insecure. Children in household also a strong predictor of insecurity

🚨New research for the Bevan Foundation on economic (in)security in Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Full report, based on framework of @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al with @jrf-uk.bsky.social, here in English: tinyurl.com/2prrsdpj & Cymraeg: tinyurl.com/mwavt63a Thread below on a couple of things that stood out:

One I keep coming back to: Reform voters think Wales's problems have simple solutions (median score: ~2/10). Labour and Plaid voters think they're pretty complex (median: ~6/10). Does this mean Plaid support will be a little more resilient to incumbency?

Attitudes to language also matter, seemingly making switching easier for some. Lab -> Plaid switchers much happier for family to speak Welsh than those who stuck with Lab

Plaid voters aren't distinctive because they feel strongly Welsh — Reform voters often do too. What separates them is the absence of Britishness. Plaid's coalition is defined less by Welsh pride than by a declining attachment to Britain.

The headline is simple & well-established now: Welsh voters consolidated behind the dominant party of the bloc they were already in. About 40% of 2021 Labour voters went to Plaid. 56% of 2021 Tory voters went to Reform.

Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

Labour down 30 points in two constituencies declared so far @itvcymruwales.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk MRP looking pretty good at the moment across board on vote shares

Record turnout in Wales with Senedd & Westminster turnout converging. Unthinkable a few years ago but still nearly half of registered voters staying home Competitiveness always helps, as well as the growing understanding that decisions Welsh Government takes has an impact on day-to-day lives

Notable that much of the variation in Welsh polling has disappeared in the final days of the campaign. The standard deviation in Plaid Cymru estimates across firms fell from 4.3 to 1.8 percentage points since autumn; for Labour, from 5.6 to 2.3 Most convergence happening in last 10 days (1/2)

Referendums meant to resolve constitutional questions can erode the very identities that hold a state together — Brexit may be doing exactly that, while creating new polarised ones in their place (see @sarahobolt.bsky.social & Tilley)

Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇

Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

On leaders, Rhun ap Iorwerth is favourite for First Minister in head to head comparisons, with caveat that a clear majority just aren't sure Will be doing some more on next few days on attitudes to government formation and issues with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social

Tactical voting likely to play a big role in driving vote choice (yes, you can tactically vote in this system) Majority want to stop a Reform government and see Plaid as best placed to stop them, but progressive fragmentation remains Reform's route to being largest party (though not government)

Welsh polling remains very noisy Reform has dropped off in other polling but steady here 29% would be Plaid's worst Senedd VI from YG since Nov 24 (sceptical of this given other trends both in Wales and UK) Lab bounce driven by MiC polling, but some small hope for them

NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇

Finally, there is some evidence now that Reform's rise in Wales is plateauing

With the full range of constituency estimates YouGov provides (including effective confidence intervals) a simulation of seat projections look something like this

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

This is great

Why consolidate within blocs? Labour→Plaid switchers: 40% say Plaid better "stands up for Wales", 30% tactical. Tory→Reform: 37% immigration, 25% protest. Different motivations, same pattern: consolidation not conversion.

Current polling shows the scale: Plaid & Reform both ~30%, Labour & Conservatives both ~10%. But crucially, the total size of each bloc hasn't really dramatically shifted. Few voters are crossing ideological divides - they've concluded different parties better represent their existing values.

The evidence: In 2021, Labour dominated Welsh-identifying progressives; Plaid held perhaps a quarter. Today those proportions have nearly inverted. Mirror image on the right: Conservatives commanded British-identifying voters in 2021; Reform has now absorbed most of that support.

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

The seat projections are pretty dramatic. Allowing for movement of a few points in many directions: Plaid Cymru ~38 seats, Reform UK ~35 seats, Labour ~11 seats, Conservatives ~6 seats, Lib Dems ~3 seats, Greens ~ 1 🧵

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵