Julia Coronado
@jc-econ
Founder MPP (yeah you know me), UT Austin Prof, former chief economist various financial firms, Fed economist, Prez NABE. Passionate about family, macro, cats and freedom
Fresh off birdwatching in the Amazon, former Atlanta Fed Prez Bostic urges the task forces to start with what problem/ challenge each communication policy & policy practice was seeking to address then consider if there are better approaches at the @nabe-econ.bsky.social Economic Measurement Seminar
I have been delighted at all the animals on my feed this weekend, let there be light! #caturday #catsofbluesky
Housing demand continues to grind along near the lows--mortgage lock from the level shift up in rates, weakening demographics from immigration + millennials completing their homebuying years, and lack of affordability make it hard to see where momentum will come from
Yes it’s #Caturday, the rains have passed and Stevie is enjoying a gorgeous summer day
To put June core CPI in context--this is the weakest reading since the deflation at the height of the pandemic in April 2020
...but software is another story--that came in strong again and is a concentrated market where Microsoft/Google/Adobe can charge more for embedded AI in their products whether you like it or not, where are you going to go?
Car insurance is an interesting example of inflation expectations in action--insurers boosted premiums anticipating rising car/car repair costs on tariffs/war but that didn't materialize so in a competitive market they are giving some of that back...
A pretty remarkable and broad based downside surprise on June core inflation with declines in hotels, wirelsss phone servies, and soft gains in rent
They have not been well synched up post pandemic (few things have been). 3m avg is still statistically significant & improving and that is my view of trends--some clear improvement but NFP still must come back down to earth--demoraphics just don't support sustained 100k+ on NFP
Gotta say this seems like a win/win/win--invest in good nutrition for kids, get them to public libraries, parks & pools and build community. Details for NYers www.schools.nyc.gov/school-life/...
As a new Fed Chair casts doubt on offical statistics after the Aministration drastically cut their funding, it is worth remembering how and why we created federal statistics agencies in the first place...they reduce scope for gaslighting the public www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf...
The drop in 25-34 year of labor force particiaption is most likely a big dose of noise that will largely reverse in July
The jobs report is noisy but confirms 1) the last 3m of NFP were overstated 2) hiring remains on a solid trajectory 3) the UR remains in the range it has been in for the past 2y 4) cooling wage growth says conditions are on the loose side of balanced w/ cautious demand balanced by falling supply
We *LOVED* technology in the 90s b/c it was making our lives better AND our wages and opportunities were booming, simply not the envionement we are in. Is that around the corner? That is decidedly not what companies are saying in their earnings reports H/T @courtneyshupert.bsky.social
IDK maybe, that feels like a 90s template where productivity is accretive to & broadens growth, but what we have now has a flavor of AI Dutch Disease--it gobbles up capital at the expense of other sectors & concentration means profits come at the expese of labor leaving consumers feeling glum
Could be a leading indicator, or could be a reflection of churn as one segment (anythign related to AI) thrives while other segments (autos/cosumer goods) lay people off--the hiring rate and net NFP in mfg are pretty flat still
There is some uptick in job openings but consumers are reporting jobs are harder to get at the highest rate since 2020
Will the narrative on the consumer get updated with the data? It is not longer, wow look at the teflon US consumer but rather the consumer got the year off to a slow start and is tracking a modest gain around 2% in Q2 despite tax cuts reflecting the crunch on purchasing power from rising inflation
Core inflation is trending higher, it is in market based measures, supercore services, goods. Manifesting the 1990s Goldilocks era of strong growth and low inflation likely requires more than just a bunch of technology investment
Grateful to have been raised by and to have partnered with kind, strong, supportive, hilarious men who give their children wings to fly. Happy Fathers Day to the good ones ❤️
Business fixed investment was MUCH broader based in the 90s--right now ALL we are doing is building out AI capacity, everything else is crowded out. In the 90s we were going great guns on tech and everythign else, the productivity boom reflected a super growth positive macro environment
Ending slavery was the single greatest achievement in US history followed by our leadership in defeating Nazis. Fighting oppression is incredibly hard work especially when it comes from within #Juneteenth
The Business Roundtable survey of CEO sentiment edged up in Q2 after a Q1 rebound that is mirrored in capital spending plans. The employment index showed flat demand after exiting contraction territory in Q1. Employment continues to show a wider than usual disconnect to overall conditions
Most respondents to our Shadow Survey of Market Participants expect the Fed to release the Summary of Economic Projections as usual after the FOMC meeting this week, but only half are confident that incoming Chair Warsh will submit a forecast
The 97 market participants in our Shadow Survey do not agree w/ incoming Chair Warsh's (& Bessent's) argument that the Fed has lost credibility and is in need or reform/regime change...should make for an interesting relationship b/w the new Chair & markets @laurarosner.bsky.social