James Mackintosh
@jmackin2
Writer of Streetwise column in the Wall Street Journal www.wsj.com/streetwise Here for FinTwit c. 2012. Ex FT
UK vs G7 GDP growth: lack of any sign of weaker UK growth is another reason to raise rates, says Bank of England's Huw Pill www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
@johnauthers.bsky.social Question on your ERP chart: Is it trailing earnings yield or forward earnings yield? My chart using forward earnings yield still has +ve ERP, and much lower at start of last year. Trailing is -ve, again was much lower in Jan 2025. Wonder if Bbg diff to LSEG/Factset data?
In case anyone is misled by the NYT saying today that London house prices are down 20% since 2015, they should have specified that was only for £5 million+ homes. For the London housing market as a whole, average property prices are *up* 32%, chart in £:
Pretty sure Tullett yesterday moved its 10 year benchmark from the 2026 gilt to the Jan 2039 gilt, breaking everything that relies on Factset for data. Here's Factset's benchmark chart of the benchmark. Matches Tullett's data for the 2039 yield
And what the reality was like in America. Improvement since the '50s:
Green policy is unilateral nuclear disarmament and a commitment to NATO. That would increase reliance on US nuclear umbrella to deter Russia, or hope the French will help.
Ironically enough, it was the US that led to the end of the last maritime toll on a sea passage (Denmark's Sound Dues). This from the Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1857
But vehicle weight is also an issue (says anti SUV group). Fatal per million by weight:
Seems pretty solid (negative) correlation and normal for middle east war, last couple of days: not perfect but broadly oil up, S&P futures down
Not convinced permabear Albert Edwards makes a good case for why he should be offering this career advice
Fund managers *really* want Big Tech to pare back the spending, BofA survey shows:
Amid all the data centre capex excitement, worth noting that in Q3 (latest data) US total capital expenditures fell to the lowest share of GDP since the pandemic
How gold and silver "protected" you during 2008: % changes since the start of 2008
I think this is true of most companies most of the time: the cost of capital (payouts to equity and debt) is higher than the capex/assets ratio. When it isn't, it's because investors are anticipating it will return to normal in future - you invest in expectation of one day getting money
K-shaped stock market on first trading day: Basically if you aren't a tech stock, forget it.