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John R Raymond (@johnrraymond) · DIRTY

John R Raymond

@johnrraymond

Slava Ukraini🇺🇦 #BelieveWomen "Trump is Putin's puppet." How Trump Operates:

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John R Raymond@johnrraymond· 19d

Republican members are now being required to gamble their careers, their constitutional responsibilities and the welfare of their constituents upon all of those wagers succeeding simultaneously.

They will not.

Preston Stewart has explained the trap with admirable clarity. He simply stopped one sentence before stating its unavoidable political consequence.

Non-MAGA Republicans must abandon President Trump now — not merely to save themselves, but because their country requires them to remember that they were elected to serve the American people rather than to accompany one man into a war he cannot win and a political collapse he can no longer prevent.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· 19d

The crisis may have been an avoidable mistake. It may have been an initial mistake that President Zelenskyy converted into an opportunity.

Or it may have been a controlled disruption intended to force Fedorov, Syrskyi, the military establishment, and the public to reveal the actual balance of power.

The available evidence cannot yet prove which interpretation is correct.

But any analyst who does not even recognize the second and third possibilities is not performing serious game theory.

He is watching pieces move across a board while failing to understand that even in a democracy the players can redraw the board beneath them.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· 21d

When citizens and billionaires demand incompatible futures, who is required to compromise?

Until the answer changes, Vexler’s ideal democratic politician risks becoming the eloquent front-office representative of a government whose real owners are meeting somewhere else.

That is because the politicians can hear us, but then they ignore us and obey the billionaires.

Sadly, no amount of strategically compassionate language can repair the crisis of trust until they stop.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· 22d

Syrskyi was correct about one thing: Ukraine is bigger than both men.

He should consider the full implications of his own sentence. He really should.

Ukraine does not need Oleksandr Syrskyi to explain why Ukraine cannot survive without Oleksandr Syrskyi.

It needs a commander who understands that the ultimate proof of his success is an army capable of succeeding even after he is gone.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· 25d

And somehow, Dracula returned.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· 25d

No secret contract bearing President Putin’s signature is required. Intelligence analysis concerns observable behavior, incentives, effects, and repeated alignment. President Trump’s conduct has consistently protected his own regime and advanced Russian interests at America’s expense.

President Trump wanted his intelligence release to prove that the American government had lied about him. Instead, the documents confirmed Russian support for him and exposed his description of the evidence as false.

Whoopsy.

The Russian attack was real. The Russian assistance was real. It was the “Russia hoax” that was the fraud.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· 26d

We saw similar catastrophizing during the confrontation over NABU and SAPO. A serious political dispute was immediately treated as evidence that Ukraine had crossed an irreversible threshold. Ukraine’s political system responded, the outcome changed and the terminal predictions failed.

The same discipline is required here.

Fedorov may have been valuable. President Zelenskyy may have felt the pull of regime security. Syrskyi may be resistant to necessary reform. All three propositions can be true without making Fedorov indispensable.

Ukraine is a nation of millions fighting an existential war through distributed intelligence, technological improvisation and collective sacrifice. Its success does not hinge on one defense minister.

If it did, Ukraine would already have lost.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jul 12

One group is saying exactly what it believes, however offensive those beliefs may be on the very fringe.

The other is performing grief while exploiting a colleague’s death to advance unrelated political objectives.

Authenticity is not the same thing as virtue. And honest cruelty is still cruelty. But performative mourning deployed as a legislative sales pitch is something else entirely. It is calculated. It is inorganic. It is craven astroturfed politics at its purest.

That — and not the predictable outrage over people making tasteless jokes — is the real story.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jul 2

Jessica, I wish you well. I hope you flourish. I hope you find a platform worthy of your intelligence and less dependent on using you as proof that the madhouse allows visitors. I hope you keep making arguments. I hope you keep annoying bad people. I hope you keep saying true things in public.

Just please, for the love of God, say them somewhere else.

Because I cannot keep getting tricked into hearing Peter Fucking Doocy.

Because enough is enough of that smug and useless turd burglar.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 28

President Trump successfully started the war. That is the indictment, not the accomplishment.

The question now is not whether he can start one. He has proved that. The question is whether he can end one without leaving America weaker, allies more nervous, enemies more adaptive, and the world more dangerous.

On that question, his own words are the evidence against him.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 27

So, dear MAGA-lite, donor obsessed, establishment Democrats: the numbers are not on your side.

The donors may be. The consultants may be. The lobby groups may be. The old Washington consensus may be. But the country is not.

And when the country is on one side and the donors are on the other, the side calling itself “mainstream” should be asked a simple question:

Mainstream of what?

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 26

Strategy shows the system.

The system says this: the Ukraine war ends when Russia’s reusable war architecture is broken. Iran is part of that architecture. Belarus is already showing what forced surrender of a support node looks like. President Trump’s role has been to poison the pathway. The future turn comes when a new president, Zelenskyy, NATO, and the EU make Iran answer.

That is the Iran war — if you care to understand it.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 25

Russia thought size would protect it. But size can become exposure. A large country with many valuable, vulnerable systems is not merely deep. It is target-rich.

That is the lesson.

Do not begin a war if your enemy can use the war to learn how to hurt you.

Do not begin a long war if every additional day gives your enemy more targets.

And above all, do not begin a war when you are made out of nothing but targets.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 23

And that is the article. Adam James is a dumbass because he made a prediction he was never competent to make. David Pakman is a dumbass because he platformed the prediction, then treated its failure as content rather than as an epistemic breach.

The public deserves transparency about presidential capacity.

It does not need a physical therapist in scrubs pretending that YouTube clips can tell him when a man will die — because that is nothing but pure dumbassery.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 22

Fourteen million dollars lets people see it. Not because it is the worst of the corruption.

Because it is the piece of corruption still small enough to count. Because it is five working lifetimes.

Because five people could give their entire adult lives to the economy, and President Trump could still waste all that value of labor on a stupid whim — which his shit eating sycophants will still call genius.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 21

Viewed through that lens, Zelenskyy’s ultimatum is not surprising at all. It is a shaping operation.

Ukraine is teaching Belarus a lesson that every state eventually learns: if your territory is used to support attacks, your territory eventually becomes part of the battlefield.

And in World War Three, that lesson is increasingly delivered by drones.

The clock establishes the deadline. The drone enforces the deadline. And the logic of this war connects the two.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 19

The coward waits. The coward studies the room. The coward counts allies. The coward measures risks. The coward searches for permission.

Then — only once the outcome begins to reveal itself — the coward steps forward and asks to be remembered as brave.

Mike Pence’s defenders will always point to January 6. I point to every day before January 6. That is where his character was revealed.

And that is the last word on Mike Pence.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 17

The Kremlin’s preferred world is one in which nobody can trust anyone, every accusation sounds plausible, every denial sounds corrupt, every institution sounds captured, and every citizen retreats into faction. That is not just polarization. That is Byzantine failure.

So the task is not to become double-minded.

The task is to become trustworthy.

Correct in speech. Correct in action. Precise in accusation. Firm in defense. Able to identify defective nodes without surrendering the possibility of democratic consensus.

That is how a body politic survives when the battlefield is trust itself.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 17

If they want to talk, let them talk. But grill them.

Make them account for themselves. Make them show what they know. Make them prove what can be proved. Make them explain why they missed what millions of ordinary people saw without access, titles, proximity, or insider status.

That is the core question every interview with these people should expose:

Why did your judgment fail when it mattered?

Until Don Lemon and Pyotr Kurzin understand that, they are not interviewing insider-defectors. They are helping them rebrand.

And fuck that noise!

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 10

That is the central fact. Iran does not have to make President Trump lose in one dramatic act. It only has to make the harm accumulate. It only has to keep the war from becoming the clean, theatrical victory he promised. It only has to make every new “deal” claim sound weaker than the last one. It only has to make time itself look like Iranian leverage.

Americans are still waiting for the deal. Iranians are counting the cost of the waiting. That is what Americans do not know — but Iranians certainly do.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 7

The United States remains militarily powerful. Its enemies know that. But they are increasingly betting that American power is politically brittle. Ukraine, Iran, and Taiwan are not separate questions. They are linked tests of whether the United States can still convert force into durable strategic outcomes. If America uses force without preparation, without public explanation, without allied coherence, and without an end state, then even successful strikes can become evidence of decline.

That is the warning Paul Warburg is trying to give.

He should give it faster.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· Jun 2

So no, Starmer is not as bad as Farage. That is true, and it is nearly meaningless.

The real question is whether Starmer’s government can be trusted with the ideals of the wider West. On this evidence, it cannot. It has shown that its commitment to free expression is conditional, that its defense of democracy is selective, and that its instinct under pressure is not to expand the public square but to police its borders.

That is the signal.

And once a leader gives you that signal, you should believe it.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· May 28

The tech billionaires know you hate AI. Fine. Just make sure you hate the right thing.

Do not hate the machine because they told you it is a monster. Hate the cage they are building around it.

Then help tear that cage wide open.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· May 28

The firestorm may come because the autocrats are weak enough to fear defeat and ruthless enough to answer that fear with death. The task now is not panic. It is preparation: moral, political, civic, strategic. The anti-democratic forces are still dangerous. They are still armed with states, propaganda systems, money, police powers, missiles, courts, and mobs. But they have not forced history into their shape.

That is the opening.

The summer ahead may be hot, fiery, and murderous. More people may suffer before this cycle breaks. But the important fact remains: the autocratic axis is not creating a stable future. It is burning through lives to delay its own failure.

And that distinction is everything.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· May 22

Because Colbert was not the danger President Trump thought he was. Colbert was the pressure valve. Colbert let people laugh in the face of Trumpism. Colbert let them feel, for a few minutes each night, that democratic sanity still had a stage.

Now the stage is gone.

The laughter will not be replaced by obedience.

It will be replaced by an unquenchable, fucking rage.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· May 18

The test now is whether Europe can think clearly before it is forced to act desperately. President Trump has made the lesson visible. Putin has made the cost of delay visible. NATO’s own evasions have made the institutional weakness visible. The question is no longer whether Vexler is right. He is. The question is whether Europe’s leaders can bear the psychological pain of admitting that the house key is now in hostile hands — and whether they have the courage to change the locks before the next authoritarian learns to use them better.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· May 13

TL;DL:
Russia’s actions today mattered more than anyone’s “peace” words: 800 drones, NATO-border stress, and a sharper test of whether Europe can compensate for weakening U.S. reliability. Domestically, the Senate again declined to meaningfully constrain executive war power and confirmed a new Fed chair under clear politicization pressure. Highest-leverage move for the Blue Wizards: hammer the gap between rhetoric and outcomes, especially on Ukraine, war powers, and institutional independence.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· May 5

Centrality tells us where the weight is. It does not tell us everything. It does not replace judgment. It does not replace evidence. It does not replace the Raymond Method. It gives the method a quantitative skeleton.

The analyst’s task is to keep that skeleton honest: define the edge, name the layer, test the priors, perturb the weights, and then ask the minimax question. What harm does this structure enable?

When the answer is Western paralysis, authoritarian resilience, Ukrainian vulnerability, energy pressure, alliance distrust, and democratic exhaustion, the graph is no longer an abstraction. It is a warning.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· May 4

The nobody is the new somebody because the old somebody was too often a credentialed fiction pushed by money and its toadies.

Jake Broe did not become valuable when the internet discovered him. He was already valuable. The internet made that value visible. It allowed millions of people to see what the old prestige order would likely have missed: a joyful, serious, persistent, morally grounded communicator with the unusual capacity to make war, democracy, and authoritarianism legible to ordinary people. That is not an accident. That is not a fluke. That is the new battlefield selecting for traits the old hierarchy routinely undervalued.

Jake may still describe himself as a nobody. But history may remember him differently: as one of the early democratic communicators who understood that the old media world was dying, stepped into the new one, and helped prove that the microphone no longer belonged only to those born near it.

John R Raymond@johnrraymond· May 3

So yes: Vexler strikes back here. More importantly, he proves he can do strong moral-strategic analysis.

He identifies a psychological mechanism. He locates the institutional failure. He ties the Trump problem to the wider authoritarian age. He rejects passivity. He sees the Ukraine parallel. And he arrives at the only defensible conclusion: democratic leaders must play offense, not because offense guarantees safety, but because passive drift guarantees strategic deterioration.

That is the lesson. The boat is already in rough water. The choice is not between rocking it and keeping it still. The choice is between steering it and being carried wherever the storm wants it to go.

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