Joost van Spanje
@joostvanspanje
Professor of Political Science, RH University of London elections | new parties | cordons sanitaires | hate speech | militant democracy | political communication Bitcoin and politics, media & public opinion ERC Consolidator Grant | NWO Veni & Vidi
This weekend in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: @uva.nl (and @ascor.bsky.social) stars (and role models) @pmvalkenburg.bsky.social and @claesdevreese.bsky.social... on one page! The front page of the science supplement. Patti because of her valedictory lecture, Claes because of his Stevin award.
This case is also interesting because Discriminatie.nl hints at an "association with Nazi imagery". Several (experimental & non-experimental) studies by Wouter van der Brug (UvA), by myself, & by others suggest that systematic association of the far right with Nazism (and the like) has effects too.
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: Dutch Muslim organizations want to have PVV leader Geert #Wilders prosecuted for distributing a controversial image. What are the effects of such hate speech prosecution of politicians? See the 2025 book by Rachid Azrout & me for evidence from 9 countries.
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl, journalist Peter de Waard: "If hackers obtain private data from citizens, politicians scream bloody murder. But if banks do it, politicians encourage it. The BKR records every debt. Banks are going further, claiming to want to stay ahead of changing laws".
Right now at the #politicologenetmaal in Gent, Belgium: Rachid Azrout presents a paper, co-authored by myself, on reactions to the PVV and their electoral effects 2017-2025. We analyse media and survey data to assess our theoretical model. @vpw-politicologie.bsky.social @gasparugent.bsky.social
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: Great article by @arnoutleclercq.bsky.social on Hungary, also starring @zsolt.bsky.social: "Particularly in smaller towns and within vulnerable groups, people did not dare to vote for another party for fear of losing their jobs or missing out on state aid."
Your regular reminder that the far right has no incentive to solve problems. Only to make things worse. Just as Trump and Le Pen before, Wilders kills a strict immigration bill. Ignoring many who voted for him. For example, the 23.5% of 2023 voters, ~87% of whom voted PVV because of immigration.
Shocking, fascinating documentary. "The Propagandist" by @human.nl . About Jan Theunissen (1898-1975), the Dutch 'film czar' during the Nazi occupation. Interviewed about his films and personal life, contrasted with investigative research. Watched via @npostart.bsky.social . Highly recommended.
Recalculated results of the Dutch local elections are in. Yet another signal: opposition to immigration. It is a key reason voters support the 4 largest winners, especially FvD and PVV. Also some local parties successfully rallied on immigration. Moreover, the biggest loser has a different stance.
Important and clear contribution. Remarkably well written. Its key argument is elegant and forceful while evidently core to political science. Highly recommended.
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl: "Who wants the CBDC?" For an answer to that question, I have carried out high-quality surveys among Dutch and UK citizens since 2024. Of course, the first answering option was "I do not know what CBDCs are". Those who know could indicate their position to it.
Yesterday in @volkskrant.nl: "Discriminatory statements by politicians about certain groups are strong predictors of discriminatory social media reactions" For such study of 9 countries by Rachid Azrout & me, see "Prosecuting Politicians for Hate Speech & the Consequences for Democracy" (OUP 2025)
Vandaag in @volkskrant.nl, een interessant interview met voormalig directeur @leefomgeving.bsky.social Klaas van Egmond.
Ouch! The D66 communications crowd are having a bad day. Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: "D66 the PM, VVD the policies (..) Comparing the government coalition agreement with each of the three party manifestoes leads to the conclusion: the VVD receives a lot while D66 gets just a little".
Vandaag in @volkskrant.nl: "Cijfers over hoeveel Nederlanders (..) direct cryptomunten in bezit hebben zijn beperkt beschikbaar." Die heb ik, sinds 2020, en daarbij antwoorden op vragen omtrent percepties, houdingen, (beleids)voorkeuren, prijsverwachtingen en koopintentie. Plus vragen over CBDCs.
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl: 2% of working people in the Netherlands live in poverty. Half of these 175,000 working poor live well below the poverty line. Even for people with average salaries, it can be difficult to make ends meet. And, it is often impossible to find affordable housing.
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: Impeached South Korean President Yoon Sok Yeol sentenced to 5 years imprisonment. This is the first of several court cases surrounding his 2024 coup attempt. Just as, for instance, Jair Bolsonaro's plans in Brazil, this coup attempt will not go unpunished.
You may have a rough day, but imagine winning the Nobel Peace Prize, then dedicating that award to a U.S. President who had already illegally bombed countries, and even lauding his illegal bombing of your own country, only to get trashed by him before an audience of millions worldwide that same day.
Vlotjes geschreven, vaak leerzaam, altijd interessant: het boek met de geweldige titel "Het kon minder: De lessen van Johan Remkes" door Thijs Broer en Peter Kee (2025). Vele dossiers waar Remkes zich sinds de jaren zeventig, gevraagd of (soms) ongevraagd, tegenaan heeft bemoeid passeren de revue.
Yesterday in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: "The world's 25 richest families have gained another $358.7 billion this year, thanks in part to their oil and gas reserves. (..) ultra-rich burden the environment many times more than others (..) role of inheritances is becoming increasingly important".
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: The European Commission wants to get rid of the 2035 ban on combustion engine cars. Ignoring concerns among tens of millions citizens, the EC keeps protecting the bankrupt business model of the dirty part of the car industry despite its failures & scandals.
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl, profs Wille & Bovens: "Many have been calling for more control over migration since the 1990s. As parties do not deliver on this issue, voters shift to the far right. D66 ran a less elitist campaign: Dutch flag, emphasis on migration—progressive patriotism."
Today 25 years ago, Al Gore delivered his concession speech: "Just as we fight hard when the stakes are high, we close ranks and come together when the contest is done (..) now is the time to recognize that that which unites us is greater than that which divides us." Conclusion of a key 'what if'.
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: "The entrepreneurs are planning new destinations, including Frankfurt, Basel, Munich, Bruges and Paris. They've been in talks with the Dutch Railways (NS) "for years" about selling its tickets through the NS app but according to the NS that's not possible."
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl: First Dutch company to issue €uro-pegged stablecoins launched. May become alternatives to credit cards and int'l bank payments. Around $ 400 billion has already been issued in stablecoins in the US. The €uro stablecoin market is less than 1% of the total.
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl: On 27 March, a British man overpowered a man on Dam Square, who had stabbed 5 passersby. Yesterday, the Londoner made a one-time appearance. He asks that his last name be withheld. "I'm not on social media either. I don't care for all that attention-seeking."
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl, @diederiksamsom.bsky.social: "Europe has every opportunity to become a prosperous global leader in sustainability (..) a revolution greater than the invention of the wheel (..) What's happening in China with the growth of wind, solar and electrolysis is insane."
A better analogy? The Dutch "1917 Pacificatie" offered something to both sides: the socialists got universal suffrage, the religious bloc public school funding. The Green Deal addresses only worries of the higher educated. It must not be weakened but expanded to also offer change to other groups.
The Green Deal is incomplete. The analogy is the US New Deal. But that deal addressed economic worries that everyone shared. Today's EU sees the higher educated worry about climate change while others worry about immigration. The deal addresses only the former. We need a Green-Immigration Deal.