So when you are trapped inside because of dangerous air quality from wildfires that are getting worse because the planet is burning, you can pass the time betting on the Air Quality Index on Polymarket using crypto that has been mined using massive energy and water resources. Dystopian AF.

Important article from @highcountrynews.org -- must-read for anyone interested in catastrophic risk, prediction markets, or the danger & depravity of "arson markets." I wrote about Polymarket wildfire markets and it is horrifying to see some of my worst fears realized... aeon.co/essays/what-...

Here's a free story idea for The Atlantic: Who are thePolymarket bettors in both the "Is the earth flat?" market and the "Human moon landing in 2026?" market? And what can they tell us about the state of American politics today?

As the death toll rises and the search for survivors of the Venezuela earthquakes continues, Polymarket users are adjusting their earthquake bets. The idea that disaster betting is "hedging" catastrophic risk is ridiculous. How is this not a "death market"? It is gambling on death and destruction.

My kids asked if we could get a dog and I said no. So then they turned me into a prediction market meme...

Back from a terrific "Money Talks: Futures for the Economic Humanities" conference at U of Edinburgh Business School. So much exciting interdisciplinary work across literature/sociology/history. Thanks to organizers Paul Crosthwaite & Rachel Muers and also @beetroot.bsky.social for great feedback!

The NCEI database of billion-dollar US weather & climate disasters provides the framework for my course on disaster history. Every semester we analyze this graph of sharply increasing catastrophic events. This database is critical for disaster preparedness and research in the US. 1/2

Reminded of this photo of San Fran Earthquake & Fire (1906) and @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social 's concept of the "joys of disaster." The Pasadena selfie photos are jarring (& dangerous) & echo earlier catastrophes. Hoping for survival & safety of all those impacted. cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/UUna...

Discussed @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social 's dazzling River of Shadows: Eadweard Muybridge & the Technological Wild West in grad enviro hist course I teach w @tobycjones.bsky.social @ruhistorydept.bsky.social -- & how the Ghost Dance-as-technology idea upends our assumptions about modernity itself... 1/2

Not unless you count Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups & Downs in Prices... (My book is about the late 19th/early 20th c., but Walter Friedman's book Fortune Tellers, on early economic forecasting, has some great material on metaphors & models.)

So the betting markets are bullish on the Doomsday Clock moving closer to midnight in Jan 25 (the election & cabinet-pick bounce to 90% quite frankly seems conservative...) h/t @jmburns.bsky.social for the savvy finance-history of the future connection cc: @ariskomporozos.bsky.social

Ironic, I suppose, to discover that my book was used without my consent to train AI only because I was on social media taking a break from dealing with a ChatGPT submission in one of my undergrad classes... theatlantic.com/technology/a...

Drop something blue from your gallery.