Julius Kölzer
@juliusk
Doctoral Researcher in Political Science @dynamics.bsky.social & Research Associate @hertieschool.bsky.social | Sometimes data journalism| Interested in political geography, inequality and elections.
All that research into the decline of social democracy in Germany, and somehow everyone missed the most important factor: SPD campaign posters used to go insanely hard
This view but die Große Koalition zerbricht im März 1930 im Streit über höhere Beiträge zur Arbeitslosenversicherung
After months spent at the desk, finally some time to enjoy the Berlin summer with this really cool book by @stephanieternullo.bsky.social
Die Linke recorded significantly larger gains in more urban municipalities, in places with younger and more immigrant-origin populations, and where more residents hold academic degrees. Gains were also somewhat stronger in municipalities with larger student populations and a higher share of women.
Still, the importance of younger, urban, and more educated constituencies is also visible when examining which local characteristics predict stronger gains for Die Linke in 2025. A municipality-level model suggests that the party’s electoral gains followed a marked geographic pattern.
Although much reporting on Die Linke’s growing programmatic appeal to younger, more urban, and more educated constituencies has focused on the 2025 election, the figures point to a longer-term and continuing change in the party’s electoral base that has been unfolding for some time.
At the same time, Die Linke’s support has become increasingly correlated with urbanity. The party now also performs better in places with younger populations and larger student populations. Support also seems to be growing where academic degrees and immigrant-origin populations are more common.
However, since then, the relationship between the party’s vote share and local characteristics such as unemployment, low incomes, child poverty, and welfare receipt has become considerably weaker. Put differently, local economic hardship now seems to be much less linked to support for Die Linke.
These patterns point to a continuing erosion of the traditional East–West divide in Die Linke’s electoral support. As the figure shows, the party’s East–West support gap has narrowed substantially over time: from around 20 percentage points in 2005 to roughly 5 today.
By contrast, support stagnated or even declined in many of Die Linke’s historical strongholds from the 1990s and 2000s. Across rural communities and mid-sized towns in East Germany, the party often lost ground compared to 2021 — a pattern that is also visible in Saarland in western Germany.
Die Linke pulled off a surprise win in Germany’s most recent federal election and has suddenly become one of the most closely watched parties in Europe’s progressive politics. Behind the success lies a continuing structural transformation of its geographic support base. A short thread🧵
Wird der ländliche Raum zur Hochburg der AfD? In welchen ländlichen Gegenden gelingt der AfD der Durchbruch – und in welchen nicht? Darüber spreche ich nächste Woche Donnerstag in Göttingen, hosted by @abusch.bsky.social. Der Vortrag ist öffentlich und alle herzlich eingeladen! shorturl.at/Cm1t9
By contrast, most West German municipalities gained population. Growth concentrates again in commuter belts of metropolises like Hamburg/Munich. Losses cluster in some areas of rural Hesse and the Rhineland, and in old industrial areas like the Ruhr, the Palatinate, Saarland and Upper Franconia.
81 % of eastern German municipalities have fewer residents today than in 1985. Losses cluster especially in Pommerania and rural Sachsen-Anhalt, where towns often shrank by a third or more. Growth is almost entirely confined to larger cities like Berlin & Leipzig and their commuter belts.
In dem AfD-Gutachten steckt viel wichtige Arbeit. Umso befremdlicher ist der Aufruf, Abgeordnete mit Ergebnissen zu konfrontieren, die zudem teils als der Wahrheit letzter Schluss auf eine vermeintlich einfache Frage geframed werden. Kredibilität und Außenwirkung hilft das nicht unbedingt.
I am always struck by how much of the spatial inequality within East Germany is obscured when Germany is considered as a whole. The disparities between Mecklenburg and the Pomeranian parts of the same federal state are particularly revealing.
Undav: "Ich bin ein großer Fan von stabilen Demokratien mit einer gut gemachten Verfassung" Nagelsmann:
Das ist die perfekte Welle Das ist der perfekte Tag Lass dich einfach von ihr tragen Denk am besten gar nicht nach
I used to create chances like Prime Beckenbauer. Now I just create plots in RStudio and can barely run for 20 minutes 😮💨 #GameIsGone
Obviously, there are already plenty of good explanations for why there is no right-wing populist party in Ireland, but no one has yet considered that the country also has some cute coastal railway lines (which is a very important variable)
