Justin Wolfers
@justinwolfers
Econ professor at Michigan ● Senior fellow, Brookings ● Intro econ textbook author ● Chief economist & Deputy platypus ● Find me:
Ceasefire is over. Energy markets noticed. Notice that this isn't a one or two month story: It's concern about higher prices over a period of several years.
Today's calmer inflation report reduces the pressure on the Fed to raise rates. The next move is likely up, but future hikes may be later or smaller than many feared.
Real wage growth has fallen sharply, and is just -- only just! -- barely positive.
Glass half-full: Inflation came in below expectations, and perhaps it's not as entrenched as we fear. Glass half-empty: Inflation remains high, is well above the Fed's target, and the ceasefire with Iran is over. Both sets of statements are true.
The Strait of Hormuz isn't simply open or closed. It's been more like my dog going in and out of the house all day. The real risk is uncertainty: if shippers lose confidence that the route will stay open, oil prices could jump—even before anything actually happens.
For most of the economy, the bigger issue isn't that prices move too fast. It's that they often move too slowly. Costs change, demand changes, but the prices we pay frequently lag behind.
Stocks at record highs can coexist with a pretty ordinary economy. Why? A handful of AI-linked firms are driving much of the market's gains. Strip them out, and the rally looks a lot less impressive.
Does GasBuddy make the gas market more competitive—or less? It helps consumers find bargains. But it also lets gas stations see each other's prices instantly. Could that make price competition less fierce? https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/could-price-comparison-apps-be-making
Trade used to be simple: find someone you want to do business with and make a deal. Today, many firms first have to ask whether Washington approves. What happens when government moves from referee to player?
Modern war isn't won by counting bodies or dollars. Increasingly, it's about turning modest resources into precise, inexpensive weapons. Drones are weakening the old connection between economic size and military power. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/trump-made-billions-on-crypto-his
Gas stations don’t need a smoky back alley. They’ve got something better: giant signs and binoculars. When prices should fall, each waits for the other bloke to move first. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/the-hidden-pattern-in-gas-prices
People notice this because it affects their wallets almost immediately. Oil prices drop, but the pump doesn't seem to get the memo. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/the-hidden-pattern-in-gas-prices
Good morning. Back to war. Higher energy prices. Stocks are also falling, signaling concern about the broader economic impact. Somewhat depressing: Markets had already priced in much of this possibility.
Trouble in Iran = Turmoil in global energy markets = Expect higher gas prices to follow.
Baby bonds are adorable. But a policy that expires in 2028 looks more like a campaign onesie than a savings plan.
The question isn't whether this month's number is exciting. It's whether the labor market is still in good shape. For now, it mostly is.
Past tech revolutions substituted for brawn. AI substitutes for cognition. That's a different kind of disruption, and it doesn't favor men. Worth thinking about where the labor market goes from here. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/feel-your-feelings-jobs-trump-accounts
What happens when more Americans own a piece of the economy? It's an idea that's been around for years—one that's attracted support from economists across the political spectrum. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/feel-your-feelings-jobs-trump-accounts
The made up numbers are now being imagined to 3 significant figures and compared to a non-existent historical time series.
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America in 1776 had about 2.5 million people. What surprised us even more wasn't the population—it was how much living standards have changed since then. That's the power of 250 years of economic growth. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/feel-your-feelings-jobs-trump-accounts
Just like Paul Revere. But with a sharper focus on economics. And platypuses. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/july4
Celebrate July 4 with a platypus. And 17.76% off. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/july4
90% of new jobs created since January 2025 have gone to women. The data tell a very different story from the headlines. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/the-latest-jobs-report-is-disappointingbut
"This is not a guy who's creating a better widget that enriches people's lives... the company wins when the customer wins." That's the difference between creating value and extracting it.
60,000 jobs was below expectations—but context matters. Earlier job gains were revised down, and the economy still appears to be creating enough jobs to keep unemployment broadly stable. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/the-latest-jobs-report-is-disappointingbut
Inflation is awake and your cash is having a nap. Bad portfolio strategy, mate. If rates are up, money sitting in a zero-interest account is volunteering for a pay cut. More on how to navigate inflation: https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/a-users-guide-to-living-with-inflation
I'm not saying it's cause and effect, but I'm also not not saying it. Either way, the manufacturing revival never came.