LeRaffl
@leraffl
Math dude, doing math with BEV market shares
Austria seems to have peaked in transition time. I expect their transition to become faster now.
🇦🇹 Austria - TTM Market Split Aug24–Jul25 vs Aug25–Jul26 +2.3pp BEV (20.9% → 23.2%) +2.7pp PHEV (8.5% → 11.2%) +1.9pp HEV (28.1% → 30.1%) −7.0pp ICE (42.5% → 35.5%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would overtake ICE in 2027-08.
July in Austria was a record month. Record high BEV share Record high PHEV share Record low ICE share 119 more HEV units than BEV units, so HEV was still the biggest fuel type, but barely.
🇦🇹 Austria - July 26 - BEV Trajectory 27.4% BEV 13.7% PHEV 58.9% ICE (of which 27.9%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 23.2% BEV 11.2% PHEV 65.6% ICE (of which 30.1%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
Cons is back to slight acceleration of BEV adoption while PHEV are more or less stuck (including EREV)
🇨🇳 China - TTM Market Split Aug24–Jul25 vs Aug25–Jul26 +5.6pp BEV (30.7% → 36.3%) −0.6pp PHEV (15.8% → 15.2%) +0.0pp HEV (0.0% → 0.0%) −5.0pp ICE (53.5% → 48.5%) PHEV peaked at 16.0% in 2025-06 (declining for 13 months).
Just China doing China things. 2027 will all in all probably come in at >50% pure battery electric vehicles already. With a little luck they'll get a first >50% outlier month this year.
🇨🇳 China - July 26 - BEV Trajectory 44.3% BEV 20.8% PHEV (of which 5.8%p were EREV) 34.9% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 36.3% BEV 20.5% PHEV (of which 5.3%p were EREV) 43.2% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
Brazil shows big fluctuations in transition time - as is natural for a market in an early phase. Their actual speed however never went to slow levels, not even at peak slowness.
🇧🇷 Brazil - TTM Market Split Aug24–Jul25 vs Aug25–Jul26 +3.2pp BEV (2.5% → 5.7%) +1.9pp PHEV (3.2% → 5.0%) +2.3pp HEV (3.1% → 5.4%) −7.4pp ICE (91.3% → 83.9%)
Brazil, currently still dominated by so-called "Flex Fuel", is shifting towards BEV at quite the cast rate. With 2.8 million units a year The are also one of the biggest markets in the world, slightly bigger than Japan even, just below Germany.
🇧🇷 Brazil - July 26 - BEV Trajectory 9.7% BEV 7.2% PHEV 83.1% ICE (of which 6.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 5.7% BEV 5.0% PHEV 89.3% ICE (of which 5.4%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
The recent slowdown of the transition to BEV was exaggerated immensely in New Zealand, so the transition time will come down quite a bit in the upcoming months. Unless something major changes systematically of course, like specific anti-BEV choices by politics (like in the recent slow down phase).
🇳🇿 New Zealand - TTM Market Split Aug24–Jul25 vs Aug25–Jul26 +3.0pp BEV (4.4% → 7.4%) +1.9pp PHEV (3.2% → 5.1%) −0.2pp HEV (37.3% → 37.1%) −4.6pp ICE (55.2% → 50.5%)
Seems like (finally!) the BEV drought in New Zealand is over. Things seem to be returning to what is expected to happen in terms of fuel type market share developments, which is obviously the takeover of BEV globally.
🇳🇿 New Zealand - July 26 - BEV Trajectory 11.5% BEV 7.7% PHEV 80.8% ICE (of which 33.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 7.4% BEV 5.1% PHEV 87.6% ICE (of which 37.1%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
This acceleration of the trajectory is significant not only because of how fast it is occurring, but also because of two other factors: 1. it is happening in a market with a maturity rate that doesn't usually show this 2. it is happening in a big market
🇦🇺 Australia - TTM Market Split Aug24–Jul25 vs Aug25–Jul26 +7.3pp BEV (7.4% → 14.7%) +4.4pp PHEV (3.6% → 8.0%) +1.2pp HEV (15.6% → 16.7%) −12.8pp ICE (73.4% → 60.6%)
Major readjustment of the transition curve towards BEV happening in Australia right now. Seems like within 2 years ICE will fall below 50% while BEV is switching to an insane pace in getting the market share up there.
🇦🇺 Australia - July 26 - BEV Trajectory 23.6% BEV 17.5% PHEV 58.9% ICE (of which 9.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 14.7% BEV 8.0% PHEV 77.3% ICE (of which 16.7%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
In 2-3 years, Uruguay will be done switching from combustion vehicles to battery vehicles and it'll have taken them more or less only half a decade.
🇺🇾 Uruguay - TTM Market Split Aug24–Jul25 vs Aug25–Jul26 +21.0pp BEV (19.4% → 40.4%) +2.8pp PHEV (0.7% → 3.6%) −0.9pp HEV (8.9% → 8.0%) −23.0pp ICE (71.0% → 48.1%) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
Uruguay shows one of my favorite transitions. It's just such a beautiful fit to the S shapes and such a fast switch. Uruguay is the textbook example of how things should go worldwide.
🇺🇾 Uruguay - July 26 - BEV Trajectory 52.7% BEV 6.2% PHEV 41.1% ICE (of which 5.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 40.4% BEV 3.6% PHEV 56.0% ICE (of which 8.0%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
Luxembourg is taking a bit longer than others to readjust to the new trajectory than some other countries, but I believe we'll see transition time fall again before the year is over.
🇱🇺 Luxembourg - TTM Market Split Aug24–Jul25 vs Aug25–Jul26 +3.2pp BEV (26.6% → 29.8%) −2.2pp PHEV (8.4% → 6.3%) +3.3pp HEV (27.9% → 31.2%) −4.4pp ICE (37.1% → 32.7%) If the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2026-10 leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
Currently it looks like in about 2 years BEV will overtake all ICE varieties combined in about 2 years. I expect this to shift closer to the present as acceleration sets in.
🇱🇺 Luxembourg - July 26 - BEV Trajectory 32.4% BEV 6.7% PHEV 60.8% ICE (of which 29.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 29.8% BEV 6.3% PHEV 63.9% ICE (of which 31.2%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
Germany has now entered acceleration again. BEV adoption is speeding up and things are getting steeper. Nobody knows how much steeper, but it seems to me the recent slowdown was an overcorrection, so I expect Germany to be able to shave off several years. How many? No clue.