Mark Ungewitter
@mark-ungewitter
Specialist
Classic high in mid-July? Or trust the thrust, three months gone by? Perhaps both.
How sharp were the five drawdowns? Here’s a look at all seven cases during the major bull market since 2009. 2/2
Great study from @leutholdgroup.bsky.social. Worth noting that 5 out of 7 recent cases featured sharp drawdowns from July signal date. Upshot? Breadth is constructive but don’t be surprised by choppy sailing ahead. 1/2
Good question. Here's a closeup through July 10th, putting us in January 2000. I'm highly skeptical of analogs but this one has been amazing, and there are of course parallels to tech mania, valuations, etc.
CPI on deck tomorrow morning, followed by Warsh congressional testimony. Key levels are 3.8% headline and 2.9% core.
Adding to precarious conditions in tens, UST30Y has again breached the psychologically important 5% level, raising the perennial question: Good buy or goodbye?
Charts aren’t necessarily predictive, but it’s hard to gauge supply and demand without them. Resolution of UST10Y multi-year sideways will provide the next directional clue.
Phil D. Gapp has been particularly busy in QQQ land. Tuesday’s downside gap was filled this morning while generating a fresh upside gap and a small island bottom. Gaps within congestion are less meaningful than other varieties, IMO, but still worth noting.
ITB is on my radar. Don’t neglect the housing sector given its outsized role in the market economy.
Old saying: “The market never discounts the same thing twice.” Renewed tensions are testing this adage.
Can small-cap withstand hypothetical mean-reversion in semiconductor space? It’s possible, but wasn’t the case immediately following the March 2000 top. The initial reaction was broad selling, with SML beating SPX only after breaching its own 40-week trend.
Post-1998 analog suggests choppy sailing ahead. At some point the pattern will fail, as all analogs eventually do.
Gold's multi-month drawdown resembles the corrective structure of 2006, suggesting a potentially constructive setup into favorable July seasonals.
The NYSE Advance-Decline Line has typically led SPX to new highs. Different this time?
Today’s SOX melt-up loosely resembles turn-of-century behavior, promoting risk management despite buoyant earnings.