Mike Flannigan
@mikeflannigan
fire guy, weather guy, researcher, professor and research chair. Thompson Rivers University Canadian 5-10 day fire weather outlook at
Our 2026 fire season was quiet, and just like the rapid transition from winter to summer (bypassing spring) in much Canada, our fire season went from quiet to crazy full on. Rapid increase in area burned (and smoke) from fires in the NWT and QC and more recently ON. See hot spot graph below
Brunswick Creek complex showing signs of life this afternoon with extreme fire weather conditions (hot, dry (rh=9%) and windy). GOES-West geocolor image showing the smoke plumes from the complex.
Off the charts fire activity in northwestern Ontario today. GOES-East mid-ir showing numerous large fires that are burning aggressively (white and red areas). The geocolor image is also below showing massive of smoke.
Another day and another pyrocumulonimbus (Pyrocb - fire generated thunderstorm) in Canada. Today, the pyrocb is in the NWT. GOES-West geocolor loop below. South of Great Bear Lake there are some pyrocu to the west side and in the center with the pyrocb on the east side.
Very active fires in NWRN ON and NRN MN again today. GOES-East geocolor image (lots of smoke plumes) and mid-ir hot spots (white=active & red = very active) as temperatures break 38C (100F) mark in many areas. Notice smoke from yesterday's fire over Lake Superior - smoke on the water.
Lots of fire and smoke in northwestern Ontario and northern Minnesota this evening. GOES- East geocolor loop below. #wildfires
Lots of lightning activity across Canada this afternoon (ECCC lightning map below). Those areas where the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) is 26 or higher (higher the DMC, the drier the fuel) could see new fire starts today or in the coming days due to a holdover effect.
Lots of active fires in Ontario and Minnesota today. GOES -East 3.9 micron loop showing active fires (white) and very active fires (red). Expect more fire starts due to lightning in the coming days.
Potential for more significant (explosive) growth on the Fraser Valley fires (Brunswick Creek & Ainslie Creek) today. Classic hot, dry and (very) windy conditions. Winds forecast today south 50 G70 km/h. The fires are already very active this morning. Be prepared and keep safe.
Possible pyrocumulonimbus (pyrocb - fire generated thunderstorm) near Fort Simpson NWT. GOES-West geocolor loop below.
Canada has passed the 1 million ha area burned mark. Still below the 10 year normal for area burned for this time of year. However, 2026 just passed 2024 that turned out to be a very active year. Expect an active summer fire season and possibly an extended fire season going well into Autumn.
Numerous fires in northern SK and MB, southern NWT and Nunavut generating enormous amounts of smoke. GOES - East geocolor loop below. #wildfires
The south is wet along the SK-MB but dry in the north. Recent GOES-West geocolor showing numerous active fires in northern MB, SK and Nunavut.
Fire weather outlook for Canada July 4 - July 9 is now available. Canada is on fire with over 500 out of control fires. Expect fire activity to remain high for the foreseeable future especially northern areas of Canada from Labrador - QC-ON-MB-NT-SK-NWT. www.tru.ca/wildfire/res...
The Senate report - Canada on Fire - came out a few weeks ago. Now, Canada is on fire with over 400 active fires with about 300 of those out of control. Fortunately, most fires are in remote areas and some of these are being monitored (purple circles in the map below) and not being extinguished.
Lots of new fire starts in Canada recently. Most of them are lightning-caused fires. Lightning forecast for this afternoon - & a snapshot of observed lightning. Finally, a Duff Moisture Code (DMC - high DMC = drier fuel) map. Expect lots more new lightning-caused fires today & the next few days.
GOES-East Geocolor loop shows smoke plumes from numerous fires in northern QC. Expect these fires to continue to grow as there is little or no rain for the next week.
Lots of lightning in the NWT and YK this afternoon - see below. The duff moisture code (DMC) is very high in parts of the NWT & YK meaning the fuels where lightning fire sstart is very dry and conducive to new starts. I expect lots of new fire starts in these regions over the next few days.
Fire weather outlook for Canada June 27 - July 2 is out. Roller coaster weather continues for Canada except for northern Canada where I expect increased fire activity due to a persistent ridge. If these outlooks are of interest - subscribe -link -end of the page below www.tru.ca/wildfire/res...
Active wildfire west of Provo UT this afternoon. Some pyrocumulus (pyrocu/pyrotcu but not a pyrocb yet) can be seen on the GOES- West geocolor loop.
Some active fires in the NWT today near Norman Wells. GOES-West geocolor shows the smoke and some pyrocumulus. The mid-ir channel - white and red cells indicate an active fire. The fires are around 65N latitude so the pixel sizes from a geostationary satellite are very large.
Active fire (SLK-001) in Northwestern Ontario this afternoon/evening. GOES-East Geocolor shows a massive smoke plume. From FIRMS the estimated fire size is 10,000 ha.
Active fire in NE Ontario this evening. GOES-East geocolor shows a large plume from Timmins Fire -009. The mid-ir shows a very active fire (red and white areas)
The Canadian weekly fire weather outlook is now outfor June 6-11. The action may be shifting further east - take a look. Lots of active fires today in Manitoba and NW Ontario (GOES - East Geocolor showing the ON fires) www.tru.ca/wildfire/res...
Very active fire (Swede Creek C10467) in the Cariboo (central BC). GOES West mid-ir - red and white areas represent a very active fire. wildfiresituation.nrs.gov.bc.ca/incidents?fi...
Fair bit of lightning last evening in the southern Northwest Territories and Saskatchewan (see below). Also, the Duff Moisture Code (DMC - what we use to estimate fire starts from lightning - the higher the code the drier the fuel) was receptive for new lightning-caused fires.
Perhaps our first pyrocumulonimbus (Pyrocb - fire generated thunderstorm) of the season in central Saskatchewan. GOES-West mid-ir image showing an active fire SW of Prince Albert (Red and white cells) and a Geocolor image shows the pyrocb.
Some lightning-caused fires possible (likely) in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and southern NWT. Lightning map below as well as the duff moisture code (DMC) - the higher the DMC the drier the fuel making it more likely to ignite.
First big fire of the season in Canada and it is in the Northwest Territories (fires 2026WB3 and WB4 though guessing they have merged). Over 5 k ha via the NASA Firms measure feature - see below (check ALT as well).
The 2026 fire season has started in the Northwest Territories. GOES-West mid-ir loop below. White areas are an active fire and red areas are very active fire( fire above the gold line). The black ares are clouds that are partially obscuring the fire.