Mikkel Stein Knudsen
@mikkelsknudsen
Researcher | Futures | Foresight. Danmark | Turku | Finland.
Sparta on Turun seudulla ja Peloponnesos on Jyllanti. Miksi ei?
Politikens leder 11. juli 2026: Der er ikke brug for mere air condition i Europa. vs. Politiken 13. juli 2026: Over 10,000 ekstra døde i Europa pga to ugers hedebølge.
Dagens overraskende historie, hvor storpolitik møder hverdagen: Iranerne kører Ali Khameinis lig rundt i gaderne i en finsk supermarkedslastbil angiveligt købt i Irak.
Sure, this is going to be great. Nothing has ever been greater than this. So much fair play that strong men will be crying, nothing will ever have been this fair before.
Freuchen famously lost his foot (immortalised in a well-known Danish song) after an incident where he got stuck in an avalanche without any tools - he quickly decided to poop in his pants, mold the feces into a dagger and wait for it to freeze, before using it to dig a way out. Survival skills.
Jeg så tilfældigt i går denne fra UK, en meningsmåling fra '21. På det tidspunkt støttede hver femte (efter eget udsagn) udgangsforbud efter kl 22 og 35% 10 dages karantæne efter udlandsbesøg - begge vel at mærke ***også når pandemien er overstået***. I bakspejlet var folk jo vanvittige.
Present today at #Shiftbusinessfestival with colleagues. Some draw bigger crowds than me.
Hvis det her er deres game plan i en kamp, der *skal* vindes, så er det en modig én. Men det ændrer ikke på, at den sagtens kan ende med at virke.
And finally, a curious fugure. 🇩🇰 isn't the biggest market for AI, the median value of public contracts on AI is the highest. Circling back again to the CO2 emissions, the new cycling combination of a 🇩🇰 IT company aimed at the public sector and two fossil fuels companies seems, well, prescient.
Since I'm working with this in another context, I also find it remarkable to see the application of AI for drug discovery (publications), medical devices, and the plausible coming flood of medical digital twins.
Another aspect of AI diffusion. While US bets the house on LLMs, China is betting on applied AI. Especially for industrial and humanoid robots. A very, very notable trend to follow in the next few years.
AI diffusion by country. Not sure what to make of the figure, but I'm surprised to see the difference between Denmark and Finland on the on hand, and Norway on the other. Any ideas explaining that?
If there is an economic AI bubble, it wasn't in 2025 that it burst. On the contrary, rather. However, CAPEX has already doubled since ChatGPT went mainstream. Is the trend sustainable?
Data centers (excl. crypto) already has a higher electricity demand than France. And the electricity demand for bitcoin mining remains mind-blowing.
Anyway, more compute requires more data center power capacity. From Q1 2024 to Q4 2025, cumulative power capacity grew six-fold. It now exceeds peak demand of all of New York State. God knows where we'll be by Q4 2027.
But we've reached a remarkable breaking point where AIs are trained more on AI-generated content than on human content. Training AIs to generate content to train AIs to generate content to train AIs to ... #Signalsforchangingworlds 40
Compute required for AI training still follows logarithmic growth.
Anyway, back to the report. AI is almost exclusively American and Chinese territory. Well known, but not without implications.
Is there *any* way this isn't going *wildly wrong* in the very near future?
There's a ton of interesting findings, facts, and figures in the 2026 Stanford AI Index Report which came out a few weeks back. Here's a few of the more remarkable ones 🧵 First of all, the remarkable speed of diffusion of GenAI. #Signalsforchangingworlds 39
Well, things are changing. 2023 may soon be a long time ago. (Graphs from @cleanpowerdave.bsky.social )
"I Speak For The Trees (and they say: get your act together)". From the presentation of Future Generations Commissioner of Wales Derek Walker at #PolyFutures here today and tomorrow in Brussels.
Et eksempel: Den letteste vej til at undersøge dagens strømpris? Åbn appen og ét klik. Ingen reklamer, andre forstyrrelser, eller lignende. Old school, men på den gode måde.
ESPAS Signals of Change, March 2026: "The question remains: will we prioritise depth and complexity in our culture and education, or continue down the path of simplification?" #Signalsforchangingworlds 36
Man skal score i sine gode perioder. Især når de er få og korte.