🇳🇱 Netherlands is going to drop to 7th, losing a Champions League ticket to 🇵🇹 Portugal. While technically they are still ahead, League Stage bonus points will change this. 🇳🇱 will likely see 5/6 (!) teams eliminated in the group stage, 🇵🇹 instead, will see 4/4 teams qualify.

Just to drive home what a great format the new Champions League is — with 1 game to go 30 out of 36 teams still have something to play for.

Champions League update! 🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca. 🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round. 🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination. 🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.

Battle for Top 10, good for direct UCL ticket: 78% —🇹🇷 Turkey (-12%) 60% —🇵🇱 Poland (+5%) 36% —🇨🇿 Czechia (-1%) 26% —🇬🇷 Greece (+8%) Battle for Top 15, good for 1 extra European ticket: 51% — 🇨🇾Cyprus (+18%) 37% —🇦🇹Austria (-13%) 8% —🇨🇭Switzerland (-7%) 5% —🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland (-2%)

🇩🇪 Germany climbing up the ranks of the yearly Coefficients ranking — good for a bonus Champions League ticket. Two wins this week sees them rise from 5th to 3rd most likely to grab a ticket. England and Italy still favourites.

Here's the consequences for 🇳🇱 the Netherlands after 5 losses in 5 games. 🔹 From 80% of 6th down to almost 50%. 🔹 Even chances of dropping below Belgium, up from <0.1% to now 1.7%. All that while the Netherlands still have 6/6 teams, while Portugal have lost 1 and Belgium already lost 2!

New year, new coefficients simulation! ⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany. Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.

Finally, here's our Conference League predictions. Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year. Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!

In the Europa League, English teams are once again favoured to make an impression. Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.

A new #ChampionsLeague season is upon us! Here's each team's likelihood of qualifying for Top 8 or 24, according to our predictions:

First place is lava!

I love using em dashes (—) whenever I write something, but now it seems people will just think I'm using an LLM. 💀

Not many changes on the coefficients table: 🇳🇴 Bodo/Glimt win means Norway overtakes Greece 🇵🇱 Both Polish teams lose, and 🇦🇹 Rapid Wien with a win, which means places 13-15 look mostly set. 🇸🇪 Djurgården lose and thus Sweden less like to overtake Croatia or Cyprus.

After Lazio's 2-0 loss last night, the battle for the Champions League bonus ticket is just about over. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket 🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.

[NEW] First blog in a long time! In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds. This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models. mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...

I've been catfishing you all for too long — I've actually been bald for quite some years now so figured it was time to update my profile picture accordingly as well...

The battle for Top 15 in the UEFA Coefficients ranking is done! 🇵🇱 Poland overtakes Denmark into 15th. At the same time, both 🇩🇰 Denmark and 🇨🇭Switzerland lose their final teams, meaning they can't retake 15th. This also guarantees Top 15 for both 🇦🇹 Austria and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland.

🇨🇿 Czechia ends the season in 9th, after Fenerbahçe's exit on penalties last night means 🇹🇷 Türkiye can no longer overtake them. 🇳🇱 Netherlands ends this year with the 8th highest coefficient, behind 🇵🇹 Portugal and 🇧🇪 Belgium — but maintains 6th in the 5-year ranking for now.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England need 1 more win (or 2 draws), in any of the 3 leagues, to be mathematically sure of a bonus Champions League ticket next season. 🇪🇸 Spain also very close after Bilbao eliminated Roma in a direct match-up. Some really weird results need to happen for Spain to miss out.

Poland getting even closer to Top 15 finish, which gives 2 UCL tickets. Only one extra win away from overtaking Denmark. Likelihood of Top 15: 99.8% — 🇦🇹 Austria (+0.1%) 99.4% — 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland (+5.4%) 80.0% — 🇵🇱 Poland (+15.0%) 16.9% — 🇩🇰Denmark (-11.6%) 3.9% — 🇨🇭Switzerland (-8.9%)

Both 🇨🇿 and 🇹🇷 lose their only game, which is great news for Czechia. A 1-0 win for Fenerbahçe next week will NOT be enough for 🇹🇷. It will put both countries on 43.9, but 🇨🇿 has the better year coefficient which is the next tiebreaker. Only a Fenerbahçe comeback can save 🇹🇷

Bonus Champions League ticket update: 🇮🇹 Italy grabs the last lifeline with 3/4 wins, among one a win against a Spanish team. 🇪🇸 Spain still favoured however with 6 teams still playing for now. England can start partying, only a miracle collapse can see them miss out.

The race for the UCL bonus ticket as it has progressed so far. While 🇮🇹 Italy messed up in the KO-round of the Champions League, it was always an uphill battle, having 8 teams playing rather than 7 for Spain/England. Hence, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England / 🇪🇸 Spain were favourites from the start.

🇮🇹 THREE Italian teams got eliminated this week, in matchups they were expected to win or at least have a good shot. This has significantly hurt their chances of ending in the yearly Top 2 Coefficients Ranking, which gets you a bonus UCL ticket next year.

Post-draw update for the Coefficients Ranking. 🇳🇱 Netherlands has all but successfully held off Portugal and maintains 6th. Twente's exit (and Ajax' missed points) mean it's unlikely they will overtake 🇫🇷 France. 🇨🇿 Plzen makes a comeback and keeps Czechia in the race for 9th.

🇪🇸 Spain overtakes 🇮🇹 Italy in the battle for the Champions League bonus ticket (although barely...) Spain with a measly 0.3 point lead over Italy — and about as many expected points in the remainder of the season. This could really go either way at this point.

Three spots remaining for Top 15 (and 2 UCL tickets): 🇵🇱 Jagiellonia with a big win, putting Poland on track for Top 15, at the cost of Denmark. Odds: 99.8% — 🇦🇹 Austria (+0.8%) 94.6% — 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland (+1.4%) 65.5% — 🇵🇱 Poland (+33.4%) 25.9% — 🇩🇰Denmark (-40.4%) 14.3% — 🇨🇭Switzerland (+4.8%)

Time for some "coëfficiëntenpolonaise" for the Dutch 🇳🇱! 4W1L in the first round of knockouts, puts them in a great spot and it's unlikely 🇵🇹 Portugal will overtake them before the end of the season. Still an outside shot of overtaking 🇫🇷 France, though very unlikely.

Knockout stage season is upon us! Here's the countries most likely to get a bonus Champions League ticket for next season. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England already 3+ points ahead of the rest, and 7/7 teams remaining. They'll likely get the 1st ticket. Other ticket between 🇮🇹 Italy and 🇪🇸 Spain, who both lost 1 team.

🇳🇴 Norway as good as certain of Top 15! Likely to end in 12th. 🇬🇷 Greece already certain of Top 15. Others: 99% — 🇦🇹 Austria (+0.7%) 93.2% — 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland (+10.9%) 66.3% — 🇩🇰Denmark (+1.4%) 32.1% — 🇵🇱 Poland (-3.4%) 9.5% — 🇨🇭Switzerland (-9.5%)