... even before the full impacts of the Middle East conflict on construction products cost inflation & rise in financing costs affect site viability, which again, was already a problem, so house builders & developers are being hit on both the demand & supply side. (15/end) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... before we see activity from the government's Social & Affordable Homes Programme, which officially started in April 2026 but we are only expecting activity down on the ground from it at the backend of this year or more likely next year at the earliest. (13/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... I don't have the time & space to get into all the major problems at the 2nd largest house builder, Vistry, but its share price is currently more than 80% lower than it was at the recent peak. (10/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

Speaking of H2 and the Middle East conflict impacts on the housing market & house building, we're only just starting to see the effects start to come through in areas such as May's 15% monthly fall & 11% annual fall in mortgage approvals. (6/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... Effectively, I am just warning in advance that monthly deliveries in 2026 Q3 may not be as useful as a proxy for the official house building starts data ahead of the Building Safety Levy deadline. (20/end) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... this would be in MHCLG house building starts figures but not in deliveries or house building activity (as we saw with a spike in starts in 2023 Q2 ahead of upwardly revised building regulations so house builders could build out later under the old regulations). (19/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

Deliveries year-to-date (January to May) in 2026 were 8.0% lower than a year ago & 32.8% lower than at the recent peak in 2022 but just note that if I'm right about a temporary spike in starts in Q3 as house builders get ahead of the Building Safety Levy, then... (18/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... & government's list of additional costs on house building will keep getting longer in the next 12 months due to the Building Safety Levy (Autumn 2026) & the Future Homes & Building Standards (March 2027) & this will hit site viability & house building even more. (15/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... site viability for house builders was already a key problem for them, primarily due to all the additional costs on house building from government, which includes the government's new 50% import tariff on steel imports, which started today, &... (14/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

.... the bigger impacts of the conflict are currently feeding through into construction products cost inflation, through double-digit price rises in oil-based products, energy-intensive products & imported products, at a time when... (13/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

We have only just started to see the early impacts of recent higher mortgage rates on the general housing market, through mortgage approvals, which in May, which were 14.9% lower than in April & 10.8% lower than a year ago & this... (4/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... overall, government's key problem is not its 1.5 million homes in England in 5 years target. Government's key problem will be to try & stop house building falling further in the next 12 months, & a resulting loss of 000's of jobs & millions of £ of capacity. (13/end) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

The HBF estimated last month that cost of building a low-rise house has risen by £76,000 over the last 5 years already (& that it is around £98,000 for a new home in high-rise). (10/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction www.hbf.co.uk/documents/15...

... the government intends to add even more extra costs onto house building in the next 12 months, including a 50% import tariff on steel from 1 July, the Building Safety Levy in Autumn & the Future Homes Standards from March 2027. (9/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... it is worth noting that even though construction products price inflation has slowed since 2022 peaks, the level of prices still remains high (in April 2026 prices were 45% higher than in January 2020), so price inflation in H2 will be from a high base already. (7/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to energy & commodity price spikes & construction products price inflation peaked at 25%. We aren't expecting construction products price inflation to rise as much in 2026, as demand is substantially more subdued but... (6/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... we are not likely to see the full impacts of the sharp rise in mortgage rates on major house builder demand until the second half of the year as most majors have forward sales already in place until the end of June & cancellations have remained low so far. (4/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

Deliveries & starts in April 2026 were expected to be higher than in March & double-digit above rain-affected January & February. House builder demand in April was due to mortgages approved before the sharp rise in mortgage rates due to the Middle East conflict &... (3/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

As for the long-term age-demographic workforce issue in UK construction, the recent peak of UK construction employment was in 2019 Q1 & there has been a sharp fall in the old-age demographic (50-64 year old) in the UK-born construction workforce & the younger EU-born construction workforce. (2/2)

... the Middle East conflict leads to a spike in CPI inflation in 2026 H2 & 2027 H1 & even sharper falls in UK construction real wages over the next 12 months. (12/end) #ukconstruction #ukhousing

In terms of UK construction wages, Total Construction Pay (including bonuses) in March 2026 were 3.1% lower than a year ago & they have been falling on an annual basis for 3 consecutive months already &, again, this is... (10/n) #ukconstruction #ukhousing

So, this means when house building demand does finally recover then we will not have the workforce (& will have substantial construction workforce cost inflation) even if we want to just build 2021/22's levels of house building, nevermind any government ambitions. (9/n) #ukconstruction #ukhousing

There were 2.07 million people employed in UK construction in 2026 Q1, which was 0.6% higher than in Q4 but 3.4% lower than a year ago, 14.5% lower than the recent peak in 2019 Q1 & it remains at its lowest levels since 2001, according to the ONS. (1/n) #ukconstruction #ukhousing

Plus, whilst social & some affordable new house building may be sheltered from the impacts of mortgage rate rises, they will be affected by double-digit cost rises in 2026 H2 & 2027 H1, so the value may be spent but it will deliver fewer units. (9/end) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... being very cautious on what they publicly say on demand, starts, completions & cost inflation in 2026 H2 & 2027 H1 when the Middle East conflict will hit affordability, through higher mortgage rates, & construction product costs. (6/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

Overall, it is a 'perfect storm' for house builders due to all the demand & cost impacts that are either hitting them now or will hit them in the next 12-18 months. And note that house building completions have fallen for 3 consecutive years already. (14/end) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... some small house builders in some localised parts of the country, not as dependent on first-time buyers, report that demand has so far been sustained (although it is difficult to know exactly how reflective that is of the overall situation. (13/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... which means government is increasingly regulating site viability out of house building. Unsurprisingly, the cost rises affect all house builders but SME house builders & small specialist sub-contractors will be more affected than major house builders as... (8/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... these cost rises will be in addition to all of government's extra costs on house building, which made site viability a major problem before the Middle East conflict effects & government is increasing costs further in the next 12 months... (7/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

... construction product prices in March 2026 were still 43.4% higher than in January 2020, pre-pandemic. So, the double-digit construction price inflation that will hit house building over the next 12-18 months will be coming from a high cost base already &... (6/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction