! While some jurnos are reporting Zelensky in 4th place in KIIS’s trust ratings -this is not new or news- that’s where he was! Real story? - Zaluzhnyi’s trust rating seems to have fallen from 73-66% - Budanov’s 70-61% Has Fedorov’s campaign hurt establishment Military figures?

Now 2014 - this was a case of what we with Henry Hale have called "Rallying Round The Oligarch" a matter of elite coordination.

As always I would not the be social scientist I am if I didn't warn that voter preferences/intentions can change very rapidly - especially in an actually electoral campaign context. Here are reminders of the 2014 and 2019 election campaigns against results 2019 "The dark horse"

Here is a comparison using the same survey providers for data covering the whole of the last 12 months.

This is not to say that replacement of Fedorov (after power struggle with Sirskyy) - was right or wrong. But suggesting that choice was made entirely because of a rapid rise of Fedorov in polls does not add up. As of July 2026 he is polling at 3/4% with no significant rise.

That is also why we are thrilled to host the first BASU @thebasuorg.bsky.social Conference at UoM @uomhums.bsky.social @uomsoss.bsky.social @uompols.bsky.social @duncanivison.bsky.social with leading political figures and policy makers and journalists engaging with UK's top scholars on Ukraine.

On a personal note - UoM regularly supports & encourages my own impact in relation to our research on Ukraine & democracy in wartime - thank you!

& just like that, in the midst of a serious diplomatic misstep by Nawrocki, Zelensky returns the Order not by diplomatic pouch but by Nowa Poshta … just like millions of ordinary Ukrainians. Proving that although he is tired, imperfect, and makes mistakes, in many ways he is still just one of them.

11th century Lavra Monestary (built in 1051) set on fire as a result of Russian air raid this night. Also on fire was a section of Art Arsenal Building. Four victims on sites thus far.

It’s Europe Day! Being a supporter of democracy increases the likelihood that a Pole would want Poland to stay in the EU by 12 percentage points at a statistically significant level. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... @jcms-eu.bsky.social

It is Europe day! Democrats in Belarus (those who identify democracy as the best system for the country) are more likely to want Belarus to join the EU! Being a democrat in Belarus increases the likelihood of wanting to join the EU by 22 percentage points! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

It’s Europe day! If someone didn’t support democracy in 2019 but became a supporter of democracy by 2021 the likelihood that they came to want Ukraine to join the EU increased by 20 percentage points!! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

It’s Europe day! In Ukraine - employing panel data - we can see that if somebody wasn’t yet a democrat, their becoming a democrat increases the likelihood that they come to support joining the EU in one year, by 12 percentage points! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Great to host @tymofiibrik.bsky.social Kyiv School of Economics @uomsoss.bsky.social after a productive day discussing possible research & teaching collaborations & a tour de force presentation we celebrated with @uompols.bsky.social - here is to future co-authorships & friendship UoM and KSE

How can we understand society navigating ongoing & crisis ridden political and economic development and reforms? How long-term social trends help explain Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russia’s full-scale invasion? How do societies adapt under conditions of prolonged political & social stress?

HOT OFF THE PRESS @EEPolitics Symposium ‘Understanding Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war’ tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

CHECK IT OUT @eepolitics.bsky.social Symposium ‘Understanding Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war’ tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

New !! @eepolitics.bsky.social Symposium ‘Understanding Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war’ tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

Last BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST, "(Anti)corruption and conditionality in the geopolitical enlargement: Ukraine’s EU accession in comparative perspective" @popovaprof.bsky.social @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Next, "Predicting budget robustness of Ukrainian local self-government during Russia’s war against Ukraine" Maryna Rabinovych @tymofiibrik.bsky.social Igor Piddubny Andrii Darkovich Myroslava Savisko @ValentynHatsko Serhii Tytiuk @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Next, "Predicting budget robustness of Ukrainian local self-government during Russia’s war against Ukraine" Maryna Rabinovych @tymofiibrik.bsky.social Igor Piddubny Andrii Darkovich Myroslava Savisko @ValentynHatsko Serhii Tytiuk @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Next, "Beyond the rent-seeking: resilience and civic transformation of Ukrainian business" by Inna Melnykovska @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Next, "Beyond the rent-seeking: resilience and civic transformation of Ukrainian business" by Inna Melnykovska @eepolitics.bsky.social tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Next, "Ukrainian public opinion and the path to peace with Russia" tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... by @alinanychyk.bsky.social and Paul D'Anieri

Next, "Ukrainian public opinion and the path to peace with Russia" tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... by @alinanychyk.bsky.social and Paul D'Anieri

First up "A duty to defend: survey analysis of citizen wartime engagement in Ukraine" doi.org/10.1080/2159... @oonuch.bsky.social @emmamateo.bsky.social

First up "A duty to defend: survey analysis of citizen wartime engagement in Ukraine" doi.org/10.1080/2159... @oonuch.bsky.social @emmamateo.bsky.social

The @eepolitics.bsky.social symposium introduction highlights new theoretical, empirical, and methodological lessons of studying war whilst the war unfolds and rages on. How do we study war? tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

The @eepolitics.bsky.social symposium on Russia's war in Ukraine answers key questions about how does a country at war - resist whilst pursuing major reform simultaneously... tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...

This @eepolitics.bsky.social symposium is the product of five years of diligent social science research on Ukraine’s resistance, resilience and reform in the face of Russia’s war tandfonline.com/toc/fjcs21/4...