James Pettus
@pettuswx
I make cool stuff / Weather Enthusiast and Storm Chaser / Photographer / Graphic Designer / Live Streaming + Graphics Guy for Team Dominator
A significant severe weather outbreak is likely today with damaging winds being the primary concern. Pending on what the ongoing morning round of storms does to the environment, a corridor of intense tornado potential could be realized, likely somewhere in southern Wisconsin or eastern Iowa.
Another severe weather outbreak is expected tomorrow across a good chunk of the eastern US, focused around Appalachia. All hazards are possible but as of now it looks like damaging winds will be the main threat.
Aside from our tropical activities, a severe weather outbreak is expected to take place tomorrow across parts of the Midwest. All hazards including the threat for strong tornadoes, strong damaging winds, and large damaging hail exist.
Looking at our 1,000 member Google Deepmind ensemble, all members max out at tropical storm strength, but also now 30% of members max out at hurricane strength. Something to watch and see how these probs trend. I do expect this to be a relatively slow development.
18z models with #91L had a pretty decent uptick overall, now I am starting to get more confident in us seeing at least a tropical storm out of this. The NHC has upgraded development probs to 50%, and our super ensemble plot also has a little more than 50% of its members reaching TS strength.
Invest #91L has been designated and is currently swirling over the gulf right now. Most of that spin is in the mid levels and not at the surface, so a tropical cyclone is not imminent by any means, but still needs to be watched. The NHC still gives this a 30% chance of development.
New guidance from the Google Deepmind 1,000 member ensemble, only 18% of members maximize at tropical storm strength. Still a pretty low probability of any sort of organized tropical storm, but still *possible*. Also still a lot of spread on where this storm actually tracks. Stay tuned.
Addressing the elephant in the room, our AOI in the gulf. It has deteriorated a bunch today but that was as expected as convection inland will likely remain more dominant until the sun sets tonight. However, even then it did not and continues to not show real signs of imminent development.
GOES-19 will be DOWN until further notice... Yesterday, GOES-19 went into an unexpected safehold (a protective operational state that a spacecraft automatically enters when it detects a critical system malfunction or external threat) and is now completely offline.
Wildfire smoke from multiple severe wildfires ongoing in Canada will continue to invade parts of the northeast quadrant of the CONUS through the end of this week. Just like we saw in 2023, we will see an eerie orange hue during the daytime in some areas. Air quality will also be impacted.
A SIGNIFICANT QLCS/Derecho is LIKELY this evening into tonight. Significant wind gusts up to 100MPH are expected within the line along with damaging hail up to 5 INCHES with cells and clusters out ahead of the line. A few tornadoes (a few in which could be intense) can not be ruled out either.
A new tornado watch has been issued. Probs are 70/40 for the nerds. Stay weather aware today.
A 10% hatched risk has been added in parts of western Texas and extreme eastern New Mexico for today. A few strong tornadoes are likely.
Tropical Storm Oscar has formed in the Caribbean and boy does it look healthy. We went from a 60% invest to a pretty high end TS in *checks notes* 4 HOURS.
Per the NHC: Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Expected to Bring Heavy Rainfall to Portions of Belize and Mexico. Tropical Storm Nadine is likely in the coming hours.
Invest #95L has been organizing steadily today and the NHC has bumped development probabilities with this up to 70%. Nadine could be coming soon. Recon is scheduled to investigate tomorrow morning.
Check out thus Multi-Vortex tornado last week spawned by Hurricane Milton in Tequesta, FL as seen from a FL511 traffic camera.
NOAA has released there 2024-25 winter outlook. And no, we don’t know how much snow you are going to get.