Jason Davidson
@profjwdavidson
Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council/ Prof at U of Mary Washington Research on NATO/ Transatlantic Security Trying not to suck at bike racing
Iran War increasingly unpopular even with the MAGA base, which historically thinks whatever Trump tells them to think.
Americans who learn geography from wars the US fights may have a new strait to learn about very soon: Bab el-Mandeb
Among the challenges in the move toward European defense independence are 1. countries where there is no real public perception of a conventional military threat 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 2. countries where there is a perception of threat, but there is _still_ a refusal to make the hard budgetary tradeoffs 🇩🇪 to ⬆️spending
I rarely agree with the WSJ editorial board, but this is 100% correct.
I agree with Hofreiter. At this point, the question of the 🇺🇸 commitment to defend an attacked ally is far more important than a reduction (even a significant one) of air assets.
Turns out if you eliminate a government agency that is made up of people on leave from other government agencies, you don't actually "eliminate bureaucracy."
For those who think that the Greenland story ended with Trump's Davos back down, be assured that it will continue to adversely affect transatlantic relations for years to come.
Trump doing his best to escape the two-level game trap of negotiations with Iran, meanwhile digging Republicans a massive domestic political hole.
Not the best picture for seeing the bike but here's a Medici track bike in purple and pink (pic from 1990ish frame built roughly 3 years earlier).
If Trump was genuinely concerned with the threats from China or Russia, he would not be waging this war against Iran.
US threats to seize the territory of a NATO ally by force drastically reduced the value of the US as an ally, contributing to allies' refusal to assist the US in the Iran war. Apparently, Trump's takeaway was that allies should have forced Denmark to concede?
This NATO poll suggests a high degree of public support for the alliance's nuclear deterrent. It fails, however, to show the extreme variation within the alliance, including very low public support in allies that participate in nuclear sharing like 🇮🇹, 🇹🇷, and 🇳🇱. www.cambridge.org/core/books/e...
When one of the most pro-US governments in Europe is publicly saying this, it's pretty clear what leaders across Europe are thinking privately.
I'm sure Donald Trump is fully fluent in the details of the 1954 base agreement. LOL! www.politico.eu/article/ital...
If Republicans in Congress appropriate anything close to $1.7 trillion, they will be signing their own political death warrant. Good luck to any of them trying to argue that this would put America first!
Really hard to understand why European allies wouldn't want to help the US clear the strait of Hormuz.
Before Greenland Pistorius might have thought this but wouldn’t have said it publicly. An indicator of the state of transatlantic relations.
Trump so close to finally realizing the value of allies while simultaneously ruining the prospect that the US would be able to utilize alliances to its advantage.
This kind of thing happens when there is no NSC process and disdain for expertise.
Next up, House Republicans to award Trump Congressional Gold Medal for "starting wars around the world."
What these quotes miss is that Trump and Hegseth 1. expect the world to fall at their feet, no matter what they are told 2. they most likely did not seek the views of those with expertise on what the UK was likely to do in this scenario.
To anyone who thinks Rubio's MSC speech has put the transatlantic relationship back on traditional footing (or even that it is focused on Europe taking responsibility for its defense), I urge you to read the speech. Here is just a taste of his core point 👇
Forgive the Trump administration, they know not what they do (honestly, they seem to be absolutely clueless about how Europeans see their policies).
Excellent graphic from the @data.ft.com on capabilities Europe needs to develop in order to be able to defend itself. It will be hard but it is possible. www.ft.com/content/4e1c...
Reading through the National Defense Strategy released last week and it seems like folks in the Pentagon really don't get how much damage the Trump admin has caused to its relationship with NATO allies.
While I agree with this Seth Jones quote in the @nytimes.com about his recent co-authored @csis.org report, I fear that some European governments will look at Russia's losses in the Ukraine War as a reason for less urgency in ramping up defense.