Bob Morris, MD, PhD
@rdmorris
Epidemiologist/physician/award winning writer. University of Washington Environmental Health Sciences Misinformation researcher Founder
That allows us to estimate how many deaths would have occurred if there had been different levels of NPIs. Without NPIs, the model estimates the 2 million Americans would have died of COVID, 850,000 more than observed. Matching the state with the most effective NPIs would have saved ~250,000 more.
Once we take into account other factors that influence COVID transmission and mortality (population density, vaccination rates, and initial COVID surge), we can predict COVID mortality for each state with remarkable accuracy.
The reduction in flu deaths varied from state to state. Those that had greater reductions in flu mortality tended to have lower COVID mortality rates.
The answer is in another disease. The flu. Influenza mortality dropped dramatically during COVID. The only plausible explanation for this is that the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) instituted to control COVID were limiting the spread of ALL respiratory infections, including the flu.
So, after the reflecting pool was filled and algae bloomed and just as crews began to pour in peroxide, a paint stripper, vandals waded in and sliced a 350 ft "gash" in the coating in a way that made it separate in huge sheets from the concrete to which it was bonded. No photographs. No witnesses.
His game was to add them to the list of substances that can be used in compounding. 6 were recommended for approval. For 3 of them, there were no human clinical studies of any kind. The driver appears to be RFK's personnel experience injecting grey market peptides. Read and subscribe for more.
In order to push seven peptides towards approval against the advice of FDA scientists, RFK Jr. stacked the advisory panel with 8 members: 4 are in the business of injecting untested peptides, 3 from pharma, and 1 has a longevity practice.
The 10 Best—and 10 Worst—Presidents in American History newrepublic.com/article/2117... via @newrepublic.com
Prevention is only visible when you break it. Drinking water treatment and pasteurization played a critical role in the elimination of typhoid along with other diseases. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview...
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And one more. This one in response to my Misinformation Masterclass post.
This drew extensive criticism from Alex Washburne, the first of which I post here. Again, I strongly encourage you to read the full comment thread. open.substack.com/pub/drbobmor...
I fully support open discussion of these issues. With that in mind, I share one of many comments by Michael Weissman. I strongly encourage you to view his full commentary in context. open.substack.com/pub/drbobmor...
Alex Washburne points out that I relied on the Chinese epidemiological data, which may have been faked or manipulated to draw attention from the lab. That seems like an epidemiological Truman Show to me. Tough to pull off. But I encourage you to read his comments. open.substack.com/pub/drbobmor...
Time to distribute one of these to each member of the Trump Administration.
COVID-19 showed up as a cluster around a wildlife market. Proponents of a lab leak argue that the appearance of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan within a few miles of a lab studying novel coronaviruses is too great a coincidence. This is a legitimate question that merits careful consideration.
There are two plausible ways for a pathogen to spread from a lab to the general population: direct environmental release which will appear as a cluster of cases around a plume, or infection of a lab worker (or escape of a lab animal) followed by human-to-human transmission
Measles evolved from a cattle virus. HIV from chimpanzees SARS from bats MERS from bats Ebola, Marburg, Nipah, Hendra, hantaviruses, Lassa, mpox, yellow fever, dengue, Zika, chikungunya, plague, typhus, Lyme. EVERY NEW HUMAN INFECTIOUS DISEASE EVER IDENTIFIED CAME FROM ANIMALS EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.
Prior Infections A history of human infectious disease puts the probability of a COVID lab leak in perspective Sars-CoV-2 emerged 30mins away from WIV. No way this was a coincidence. Until we consider the chances of a novel pathogen emerging from a lab leak.
I've been struggling with this all day. What is the figure in the middle? Satan? SWAT Team statue of Liberty? Asking for a friend.
How Flat is the Earth? All sides will be represented at an upcoming NAS conference on the shape of the planet. Presumably the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
From Dr. Scientific Freedom himself. The integrity meter hits negative 10.
Apparently, we are going to end "47 years of extortion, corruption, and death" with one night of "a whole civilization will die" after 5 1/2 years of extortion and corruption.