Garry Peterson

@resiliencesci

Director FinBio.org Professor of Environmental Science with focus on Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University stockholmresilience.org projects: regimeshifts.org biospherefutures.net goodanthropocenes.net

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Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· 3d

A major El Niño is under way, forecast to peak near +3.9 °C in Nov 2026 dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso "A powerful El Niño weather event could push an additional nearly 49 million people into acute food insecurity...by the end of next year" www.reuters.com/business/env...

The observed ENSO record with the current forecast appended. Red spans are El Niño events, blue La Niña.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· 3d

Power plants in USA inzonex.co.uk/poweratlas/u... United States of America electricity grid — mix & carbon intensity (2025)

United States of America electricity grid — mix & carbon intensity (2025)”.

It highlights four headline metrics:

384 gCO₂/kWh — grid carbon intensity
43.0% — low-carbon electricity
25.6% — renewables
57.0% — fossil fuels

The bar chart below shows the electricity mix:

Source Share
Gas 40%
Nuclear 17%
Coal 16%
Wind 10%
Solar 9%
Hydro 5%
Biomass 1%
Oil 1%

Overall: Natural gas is the largest electricity source at 40%, with nuclear and coal next at 17% and 16%. Wind and solar together contribute 19%, while all renewables shown total 25.6%.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· 3d

PowerAtlas inzonex.co.uk/poweratlas/ every power plant, mapped and explained Capacity, fuel, owner, location and emissions for 42,785 power plants worldwide E.g. Power plants in Sweden inzonex.co.uk/poweratlas/s...

Sweden’s electricity system using four headline metrics:

35 gCO₂/kWh — grid carbon intensity
98.8% — low-carbon electricity
71.2% — renewables
1.2% — fossil fuels

Below, a bar chart shows the electricity mix by source:

Source Share
Hydro 40%
Nuclear 28%
Wind 23%
Biomass 6%
Solar 3%
Oil 1%
Gas 0%

Visually, hydropower is the largest source, followed by nuclear and wind. The overall message is that Sweden's grid is very low-carbon, with renewables making up roughly seven-tenths of generation and fossil fuels contributing very little.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· 3d

Fire Emissions Watch where wildfires are burning worldwide, how much carbon they release into the atmosphere, and where the smoke plumes travel. All data comes from EU's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and is updated every day. apps.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/fire-emissio...

screen shot of website showing maps and animations

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· 4d

Hours Worked Among All Adults (Aged 15+) by Country doi.org/10.1093/qje/... "China and India, ... together account for about 35% of the world population, in global hours worked"

Figure II Hours Worked Among All Adults (Aged 15+) by Country
The figure shows average weekly hours of work per adult (aged 15+) in Panel A, employment rates per adult in Panel B, and weekly hours of work per worker in Panel C against log GDP per adult in 2023 PPP US$. For each country, we use the most recent labor force survey available (generally 2022–2023 or 2019 as we exclude COVID years whenever possible, see Online Appendix Table C1). The area of each country’s circle is proportional to its adult population; the largest countries’ names are depicted. Colors (color version online) correspond to world regions as depicted in Online Appendix Figure A1. The best quadratic fit of the weighted circles is represented by the dashed curve. Panel A shows that hours of work per adult are weakly correlated with development overall. Panel B shows overall stability of the employment rate with development. Panel C shows a bell-shaped pattern in hours per worker, with a substantial decline for higher-income countries.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· 19d

European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) data Seasonal Trend for France forest-fire.emergency.copernicus.eu/apps/effis.s...

EFFIS Weekly Cumulative Burnt Areas for France showing record lvels

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· 19d

“The fires that are hitting our country have reached a level that has never been seen before” France’s PM Sébastien Lecornu "...successive heatwaves that dried out vegetation, making it easier for blazes to start and spread." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

cumulative burn area is at record levels for this time of year for france and spain

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· 20d

“In an unsettled world, the Nordic countries are very attractive...In the Nordics, you can breathe, you can do things, not just lie in the shade because it is too hot ” Hedda Felin, CEO Hurtigruten, Norwegian travel company giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

June temperature records have been broken across Europe in 2026

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 9

"From 2000 to 2025 Africa’s urban population soared from 248m to 829m—or from 32% to 57% of the total ...106 cities have at least 1m people." forecasts "from 2025 to 2050 the physical area of cities in sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 90%" www.economist.com/middle-east-...

Africa, which is already quite urban, is urbanising faster than any other part of the world. By 2050 the number of African megacities (those with at least 10m people) will rise from three to 17, the second-most of any continent, forecasts Africapolis

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 9

<<In the mid 2010s...[US$] debt was no longer being accumulated by official “reserve managers”...now inflows of funds into American private assets, attracted by the dramatic dominance of American financial markets over all possible competitors.>> adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...

In the mid 2010s the large reserve holders stopped building new official reserves. The emerging markets led by China went on pegging their currencies and controlling capital flows, the trade surpluses continued accumulating, the US went on issuing debt, at an accelerating rate after 2018. But, that debt was no longer being accumulated by official “reserve managers”. Without fanfare, the dollar system was again shifting gear, dollar #4 was giving way to dollar #5. The shift is clearly evident in the figures for foreign holdings of US Treasuries, the key reserve asset.

If in the era of Bretton Woods 2.0, it was official reserve accumulation that covered America’s balance of payments imbalance, it was now inflows of funds into American private assets, attracted by the dramatic dominance of American financial markets over all possible competitors.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 3

Who Benefits from Income and Wealth Growth in the United States? realtimeinequality.org quarterly statistics on how economic growth is distributed across groups in USA based on paper: Blanchet+ doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

A data table interface titled "Real income growth per adult in 2025" for the "Last Calendar Year." It displays the growth percentage, monetary gain, and average income broken down by wealth groups, showing a stark contrast between the Bottom 50% (who saw a 0.1% decline) and the Top 0.001% (who saw an 8.5% increase).

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 3

Econobiomes: A terrestrial-based country classification for international sustainability comparison Matthieu+ doi.org/10.1016/j.la... "clustering countries according to the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems where their economic activities occur"

Biodiversity loss, driven by human activities such as land-use change, climate change, and pollution, is a critical global challenge. Effective sustainability performance assessments, especially at the national level, require tools that account for biophysical characteristics alongside economic and social factors. Current methods often overlook the ecological constraints and opportunities shaped by biomes—large-scale regions defined by climatic and ecological attributes that influence ecosystem services. This study introduces Econobiome classifications, a novel country categorization system based on terrestrial ecosystem composition and the spatial distribution of economic activities, including agriculture, forestry, and night light data. Using partitioning clustering techniques, we classify countries into four distinct groupings: cropland (11 clusters), forestry (5 clusters), night light (7 clusters), and all activities (7 clusters). The classifications highlight how dominant biomes and economic activity locations shape ecological conditions and sustainability constraints. We apply the Econobiome framework to benchmark the environmental efficiency of national agricultural systems (NAS) using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Results reveal significant variation in eco-efficiency across clusters, underscoring the importance of context-sensitive comparisons in sustainability diagnostics. While the Econobiome framework improves ecological comparability across countries, it relies on national-scale data and does not capture subnational ecological and socio-economic variation. Yet, the Econobiome classification provides policymakers and researchers with a robust tool to align environmental assessments with ecological realities, improving the accuracy of sustainability benchmarks and supporting evidence-based decision-making in the face of the biodiversity crisis.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 3

Inferring alternative ecosystem states with field survey data Chen+ doi.org/10.1111/2041... "aim to provide an easy-to-use template for studying alternative stable states with snapshot field survey data"

A practical framework for detecting alternative stable states using field survey data. This protocol outlines a systematic workflow for alternative stable state detection through six integrated phases: (1) State Variable Selection: Prioritize indicators balancing ecological representativeness and stakeholder relevance or employ multivariate descriptors. Address multicollinearity via dimensionality reduction (e.g. PCA, NMDS) or network topology analysis. (2) Environmental Factor Pool: Assemble climatic, edaphic, disturbance, anthropogenic and topographic variables. (3) Evidence supporting the existence of alternative stable states: Combine residual multimodality tests (Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Hartigan's dip) with hysteresis analysis to filter pseudo-ASS caused by environmental discontinuities. (4) Determining driving factors: Apply potential landscape analysis and piecewise regression to bimodal zones (identitfied from Step 3), identifying persistent drivers independent of environmental gradients (Topographic factors are excluded during driver identification due to temporal scale mismatches). (5) Determining what alternative stable states exactly are and their thresholds: Utilize typical methods, but with an emphasis on applying threshold-specific validation. (6) Inferring regulating mechanisms and feedback: Feedback mechanisms are inferred through the integration of abiotic constraints and biological interactions using hybrid structural equation modelling or machine learning methodologies. The framework balances catastrophe theory foundations with operational flexibility, offering a standardized yet adaptable approach for the detection of alternative stable states. ASS, alternative stable states; D1/D2, frequency distribution coefficients; GAM, generalized additive model; GLM, generalized linear model; NMDS, non-metric multidimensional scaling; PCA, principal components analysis; RF, random forest.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 2

"...the decline in the United States has been more rapid and pronounced, particularly in the last year. It has deteriorated by 50% from 2015 to 2025 and is now evaluated as moderate autonomy by country experts" dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

Figure 6: Institutional Autonomy, Development for the US and the Average Peer Country in Western Europe and North
America from 2015 to 2025.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 2

Academic Freedom Index Update 2026 Kinzelbach+ dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn... "Over the last decade, academic freedom has declined in 50 countries, and only 9 countries have registered improvements" "The decline in academic freedom in the United States began around 2020"

Figure 5: Increasing and Decreasing Scores for Institutional Autonomy, 2015–2025. Institutional autonomy increased in countries and territories above the diagonal line and decreased in countries and territories below it. Countries and territories are labelled if their scores in 2015 are between 3 and 4. The size of the dots indicates the population size of the countries/territories in 2024 (data from World Bank’s World Development Indicators).

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 2

Changing global linkages: A new Cold War? Gopinath+ doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042 "like during the Cold War, trade, FDI, and portfolio flows between blocs are decreasing, compared to trade, investment and portfolio flows within blocs" currently decoupling is small

Fig. 3. Trade fragmentation: The Cold War and Now.

The charts plot the change in global trade between blocs (Panel A) and with nonaligned countries (Panel B) during the Cold War (blue line, with t0=1947) and since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (red line, with t0= 2021:Q4). For each episode, the charts plot the semi-elasticity of trade for flows (between blocs in panel A and with nonaligned countries in panel B), and the associated 90 percent confidence bands, estimated with PPML and a fully saturated gravity model as in equation ?? in the main text. The missing category is trade within blocs.

The Cold War results are obtained using annual data 1920-1990 — excluding the World War II years (1939-1945), and with 1947 as excluded year — and the bloc definition based on Gokmen (2017). The results for the most recent period are based on quarterly trade data 2017:Q1-2024:Q1 (with 2021:Q4 as excluded quarter), with the wider bloc definition based on the Ideal Point Distance (a measure based on voting pattern in the UNGA computed by Bailey et al. (2017)).

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 2

"adverse supply shocks" are increasing meaning damage to the economy’s ability to supply things is increasing usually producing decreasing supply and increasing prices these shocks are coming from both geopolitical and nature related risks www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/a...

Adverse supply shocks have become more frequent and more intense (Graph 17.A) – a condition that is set to stay.3

In this context, authorities may have to contend with the increasingly interwoven roles of fiscal and monetary policy. Supply shocks, if persistent, make it harder for central banks to keep inflation in check without adversely affecting growth and unemployment. Meanwhile these shocks also put fiscal policy under pressure to ease households' cost of living burdens. Yet higher public debt crowds out monetary space, weakening the central banks' ability to contain inflationary pressures without further worsening public finance. The separation between fiscal and monetary policies – long a cornerstone of central bank independence and credibility – is coming under growing strain.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 2

BIS 2026 Annual Economic Report www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/a... "global economy displayed surprising resilience despite successive shocks, from tariffs to the Middle East conflict" driven by AI investment + supply chain realignment but risings risks from inflation investment bubble & government debt

The regional reconfiguration has played an important role in bolstering global economic resilience over the past year. On the one hand, many advanced economies saw a surge in artificial intelligence (AI)-related investments, which helped mitigate the negative effects of tariffs and heightened uncertainty on growth. In the United States, for example, AI-related investments contributed roughly one percentage point to the country's real GDP growth in 2025, by some estimates. This development also led to a sharp rise in US imports of AI-enabling products, including raw materials, processed chemicals, intermediate inputs and equipment.icon Although US imports of AI-enabling products from China declined, this was largely offset by increased imports from other Asian economies, keeping the regional market share of US imports stable at around 60% (Graph A1.B). These strong exports, in turn, supported robust economic activity in ASEAN economies throughout 2025.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 1

In 2025 "China has accounted for more than 17% of global green bond issuance...while the US made up 3%" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... "Green bonds are a form of debt issued by companies and sometimes governments where the proceeds are earmarked for spending on environmental projects."

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jul 1

"What the public uses and what scientists themselves use are closely consistent. And the funding of science closely tracks quantifiable public use. These results suggest the connections between the ivory tower and the real world appear more aligned than is commonly imagined." doi.org/10.1038/s415...

Amidst enormous diversity in public use across fields and domains, scientific funding for a given field is closely aligned with the totality of its public use. a, Ternary plot of RCI for 294 level-1 fields together, with the location of each field indicating its relative usage among the public domains. Circles are colour-coded according to their parent field in Fig. 1, and circle sizes reflect overall usage. b–d, Average funding (US$) per paper across fields is positively correlated with a field’s RCI index in government (b), news (c) and patenting (d). The relationship remains statistically significant when combined with control variables (P < 0.001 in ordinary least squares regressions controlling for the number of papers and parent field fixed effects; see Supplementary Table 2 for details). e, Collectively, public uses beyond science strongly predict field level funding per paper.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 30

Algae bloom across Baltic Image from 22 June 2026, shows green swirls across the sea surface between Sweden and Latvia. eu-space.europa.eu/components/e... amplified by nutrient runoff and climate change eutrophication reduces water quality and wildlife

European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-3 imagery

During the summer months, large algal blooms occur frequently in the Balic Sea. Often driven by warmer temperatures, abundant sunlight, and nutrient-rich waters, these blooms can reduce water quality and affect marine life. In late June 2026, a new algal bloom was observed across parts of the Baltic Sea.

This image, acquired by one of the Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellites on 22 June 2026, shows green swirls across the sea surface between Sweden and Latvia. These patterns are consistent with algal blooms and may be influenced by currents, winds, and local sea conditions.

The wide-area ocean observations delivered by Copernicus Sentinel-3 support the monitoring of water quality, marine ecosystems, and algal bloom dynamics across European seas.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 30

Above-average sea surface temperatures across European seas 29 June 2026 based on data from the Copernicus Marine Service

After the marine heatwave of the end of May 2026, the intense temperatures which affected western and central Europe during the third decade of June caused further warming of the surrounding seas.

This data visualisation, based on data from the Copernicus Marine Service, shows sea surface temperature anomalies on 29 June 2026. The red and dark red tones show areas where sea surface temperatures above the long-term average were recorded. The largest anomalies reached approximately 6°C in the western Mediterranean Sea, particularly in the Gulf of Lion off the coast of southern France, and in the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian seas along the western coast of Italy. Sea surface temperature anomalies also increased markedly in the southern North Sea and the Baltic Sea compared with late May.
European Union, Copernicus Marine Service Data

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 30

"Using...DNA barcodes...for 1.6 million individual tropical insects, a deep census of a highly diverse group of parasitoid wasps, and powerful statistical strategies, we conservatively estimate that the true number of insect species is at least 14 to 20 million" doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

Estimates of global insect species richness, upscaled from estimated ACG insect species richness using ratios of global to ACG richness (richness scaling factors) for four alternative reference groups (Dataset S1). Horizontal black bars are expectations; gray columns are 95% confidence bands. The dashed horizontal line is the mean of the four expectations.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 28

🇨🇦 -> 16

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 23

2m Temp Anomaly Monday June 22, 2026 Climate Reanalyzer climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-we...

Hotspot over france - 2m Temperature Anomaly refers to the departure of the current day's forecast temperature from a long-term mean for the same day of the year. The anomalies here are calculated from a 1979–2000 climatology from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). This 22-year baseline, which is used instead a 30-year 1991–2020 climate normal, represents the early part of the CFSR record prior to significant warming observed across the Arctic since the early 2000s.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 23

Channels of the Yukon Delta, USA June 20, 2026 from European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery eu-space.europa.eu/components/e...

The Yukon Delta, located on the Bering Sea coast of western Alaska, USA, is one of the largest river deltas in North America. Its maze of channels, wetlands, tundra, and lakes provides important habitat for migratory birds, fish, and other Arctic wildlife, while also shaping local transport and subsistence activities.

Acquired by one of the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites on 20 June 2026, this false-colour image shows the delta’s complex drainage network. Water appears in deep purple and black, tracing branching river channels, tidal creeks, and small lakes. Early summer vegetation, visible after seasonal ice melt, appears in shades of red and pink, while bright green tones mark exposed or sparsely vegetated ground across the low-lying terrain. The sinuous patterns show how water, sediment, and vegetation interact across the floodplain.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 22

Stockholm Resilience Centre in OpenAlex openalex.org/institutions...

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 22

What is required for a post-growth model? Van Eynde+ doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108928 "Important research gaps remain around the understanding and modelling of the financial system, environmental feedback mechanisms, and non-institutional modes of provisioning"

Fig. 4. A framework of model requirements for representing and assessing post-growth scenarios. The framework maps required model elements onto the biophysical, economic, and social spheres and key concepts or agents within them, and indicates their interlinkages and relations to post-growth goals. The three coloured blocks represent the biophysical, economic, and social spheres. The grey blocks represent the three post-growth goals, while the arrows from the spheres to the goals indicate which spheres mainly affect which goals. The blocks in a lighter shade within each sphere represents a concept (in bold) and the corresponding model elements (regular font). Arrows between concepts and/or spheres indicate interdependencies between these. The statements at the bottom of the spheres describes additional considerations that are relevant for that sphere.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 22

Legacies of foundation species shape life after death Kopecky+ doi-org/10.1126/scia... "dead foundation species...alter demographic processes" from -1/2 - 12X "these postmortem effects reveals an underappreciated dimension of ecological memory"

Fig. 5. Consequences of positive versus negative effects of material legacies for ecological community structure.
Material legacies that positively affect demographic processes in live foundation species support establishment and growth of living conspecifics (“facilitation”) and thereby stabilize or promote return to the original community composition that existed before disturbance/mortality. Material legacies that negatively influence foundation species demographic processes may prevent return to predisturbance/mortality community composition by suppressing conspecific establishment, growth, and/or survival (“inhibition”), ultimately leading to a departure from the original community to an altered or degraded community via decline or loss of taxa that depend on the foundation species. Icons signify ecosystems (and the associated legacies) that we evaluated as either facilitative (i.e., positive) or inhibitive (i.e., negative) with respect to foundation-species demographic processes, while the accompanying phrases refer to the documented mechanism underlying each effect. Illustration credit: M. Whalen.

Garry Peterson@resiliencesci· Jun 9

"26 of the world’s top 65 banks reduced their fossil fuel financing in 2025, yet still the world’s largest banks...committed $906 billion to companies conducting business in fossil fuels in 2025" www.bankingonclimatechaos.org news: www.theguardian.com/environment/...