But concern doesn't mean willingness to pay. On paying higher prices or taxes for the environment, NZ is mid-pack — 2.9 and 2.7 out of 5 — below countries like Denmark, the US and Australia. (5/6)

How does NZ compare globally? On environmental concern, it's near the top: a mean of 4.1 out of 5, the third-highest of 28 countries in the 2020 ISSP, behind only Spain and Slovenia. (4/6)

In 2023, support for more environment spending was 91% among Green voters, 87% among Te Pāti Māori and 69% among Labour — but 32% among ACT, 31% National and 30% NZ First. No majority of National or ACT voters has wanted more spending in any year since 1996. (3/6)

Support for environmental action is strong overall. Since 2017 a majority of New Zealanders have wanted more environment spending (51% in 2023), and only 12% want less. The public usually favours the environment over the economy too. (2/6)

In 2023, over 80% of left-leaning New Zealanders wanted more government spending on the environment. Among right-leaning voters, it was 31%. The environment is mostly the left's turf. So is there any room for a right-leaning "blue-green" party? A 🧵 on the NZES data. (1/6) #nzpol #environment

Satisfaction does dip with election results — it can fall for whoever's party just lost (National's low point was 2005, Labour's 2011 and 2014). But even at those low points most supporters stay satisfied. The one group to drop below half was Te Pāti Māori voters in 2023, at 36%. (4/6)

Satisfaction compares well internationally too. Across 16 countries in CSES, NZ ranks 6th (72%) — behind Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Australia and Taiwan, ahead of France, Poland and Portugal. The least satisfied (Slovenia 34%, Türkiye 31%, Brazil 28%) face democratic challenges. (3/6)

Beyond satisfaction, 85% say democracy is always preferable to other forms of government, and asked to rate how democratic NZ is from 0 to 10, half put it at 8 or higher (mean 7.1). Only about 10% place NZ below the midpoint. (2/6)

At a time when democracies elsewhere are under strain, New Zealanders are notably content with theirs: 71% were satisfied with how democracy works after the 2023 election, and that's held near 70% for 30 years. I looked at NZES and CSES data. Short 🧵 (1/6) #nzpol

But it's not all economic. 76% of NZers say speaking English is key to being a 'true New Zealander', and 42% say being born here matters. Some opposition is cultural. (3/5)

Economic concerns seem to be a big part of opposition to immigration. 46% of Kiwis in the lowest household income bracket want immigration reduced — but only 18% in the top bracket do. The two highest income groups lean pro-immigration on average. (2/5)

Of 29 countries surveyed, NZ has the lowest opposition to immigration — one of only four where the average respondent leans toward wanting more, not less. What's behind the opposition that does exist? I dug into NZES and ISSP data — part 2 of a two-part series. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

Immigration has been a low-salience issue in NZ — cited as the most important issue by fewer than 2% of voters in every election since 2008 except 2017. That year, when NZ First campaigned hard on it, salience rose to 6% overall and 22% among NZ First voters. In 2023 it was 0.6%. (4/6)

The partisan divide is broadly as you'd expect, but ACT stands out. NZ First voters are the most opposed, Green voters are the most supportive. ACT is split: 40% wanted reduction and 36% wanted an increase. Labour and National supporters have similar positions. (3/6)

In most years, more than 40% of NZES respondents — and often a majority — wanted immigration reduced. In 2023, that dropped to 34%, the lowest since 1999. The share wanting more immigration rose to 28%. (2/6)

The underlying ideological divide is real but small. Men average around 5.5 on the 0–10 left-right scale, women ~5.2 — a gap that's mostly held since 1996. Gender-diverse respondents sit much further left, averaging around 3.5 in 2023. Sample sizes are very small, however. (3/4)

Labour's gender gap peaked at around 11 percentage points in 2020, then nearly vanished in 2023. When National gains among women, Labour tends to lose them — and 2023 followed that pattern clearly. The Greens, ACT, and NZ First all show the gaps you'd expect. (2/4)

National won a higher share of women voters than men in 2023 — 41% vs 37%. That runs against the usual pattern, where women tend to lean left. I analysed three decades of NZES data on the gender voting gap in NZ. There is a gender gap, but it's small. 🧵 #nzpol

That score has fallen to NZ's lowest since around the 1980s, with the biggest single-year drop in 2025. Consultation, common-good justification, and respect for counterarguments have all declined since the current government took office. (4/5)

The Liberal Democracy Index - elections, civil liberties, rule of law - puts NZ at 0.79, roughly level with Australia. We trail the Scandinavians but sit well ahead of the UK (0.69) and US (0.57). On this measure, NZ looks in reasonable shape. (2/5)

NZ ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy. But 37th for deliberative democracy - how decisions get made and explained. And that ranking has been falling. I dug into the latest data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

How much voters liked each party (rated 0–10) reinforces the divide. Economy voters: National 7/10, Labour 4/10. But among cost of living voters — focused on household bills — Labour (5.5) and National (5.1) were nearly level. No party owned the issue. (3/4)

The distinction shows up in party preferences. National dominated among economy voters: 78.8% said they were best placed to handle it. But cost of living voters — focused on household bills — were fragmented: National 37.5%, Labour 23.6%, no party 15.2%. (2/4)

🧵 The economy and cost of living were NZ's two biggest election issues in 2023 — but they're not the same thing. One is about how the country is doing overall; the other is about what people experience at the supermarket. And the data shows voters treated them differently. (1/4) #nzpol #election2026

Overall support for stronger climate policies dropped from 62% to 50% between 2020 and 2023. But the shift wasn't evenly distributed. (2/4)

In 2020, a majority of right-leaning New Zealanders supported stronger climate action. By 2023, that had dropped to 29%. My analysis of NZES data on the left-right climate divide shows the gap is growing. Short 🧵 - full details on my blog (link below) (1/4) #nzpol #climatepolitics

New Zealand's Treaty of Waitangi debate is increasingly partisan - left and right voters are now 34 points apart in support for removing the Treaty from law. In my latest post, I explore what the data shows and what it means for 2026. #nzpol #tetiriti threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/treaty-...