Contrary to common belief, the current memory market is not driven by high-bandwidth memory. With a 66% share of SK Hynix revenue, the server market certainly remains the most important market, but this is now driven by non-HBM memory. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

The current semiconductor market is a runaway wildfire that will only end when customers run out of funds. COGS is 38% higher than the last cycle peak of 2022 while revenue has grown by 111%. The peak-to-peak revenue growth in the last cycle was 22%. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

Memory suppliers used to buzz around Apple like fruit flies, but now they have discovered larger commitments. Apple's purchasing commitments have not changed significantly, suggesting a reluctance to follow the new market rules. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

SpaceX is a data centre company masquerading as a Rocket Company. With a QoQ increase in CapEx of 82%, SpaceX has just become the 5th-largest consumer of semiconductor products, tied with Oracle. If your business or portfolio depends on Semiconductors, you can follow my blog here: lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

After the earnings release, the consensus CapEx forecast rose significantly, adding $6.4B in additional CapEx per quarter to the Q4-2027 forecast, an increase of 43% compared to the forecast a few days earlier. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

TSMC delivered a better-than-expected result and even stronger guidance, and was awarded a lower stock price. TSMC is now at 99% capacity, measured at 12 Inch equivalent. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

The Semiconductor Industry has been violently transformed over the last year and can never return to its historic structure. Most know that the semiconductor industry is growing, driven by the AI buildout; most have no idea of the massive scale of the transformation. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

Pricing to infinity, and beyond. Since the last semiconductor peak, Samsung's revenue has increased by more than 100%, while the cost of Goods sold has increased by 7.6%. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

"We just love sky-high memory prices" While markets are generally sceptical of the performance of companies that use memory in their products due to astronomical pricing, Apple should be treated differently. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

Micron's result took the analysts by surprise. The memory price increases are nowhere near a maximum. #Semiconductor #AI #Memory #DRAM open.substack.com/pub/clausaas...

While the investments in new AI Data Centre capacity are approaching insanity, the financial model is perfectly sane. It is also high-risk, as customers can default on orders or fold completely. clausaasholm.substack.com/p/lunacy-in-...

Since 2021, Intel's purchase commitments have declined by 46%, while Nvidia's have grown by 7x. NVIDIA's supply backlog is now 8 times larger than Intel's. While Nvidia and AMD have more substantial HBM backlogs than Intel, they all compete for the same wafers. lnkd.in/egtzn82v

With Intel and Samsung discussing organisational structures, the US semiconductor leadership is in the hands of the Taiwanese, as usual. If you are dependent on the semiconductor industry, you can sign up to my blog here: lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

Nvidia's quarterly capital expenditure (CapEx) has surpassed that of the largest semiconductor company using the hybrid manufacturing model, Texas Instruments. TI is spending capital expenditures on Semiconductor Fabs, but what about Nvidia?

My research model comprises a supply network that spans more than 50 subsegments, encompassing over 400 companies. If you are interested in my latest analysis of the industry, you can read more here: lnkd.in/d-m5AiFR

If you think reshoring some Semiconductor manufacturing to the US is expensive, you better prepare for reshoring electronic manufacturing. Read more about electronic manufacturing here: lnkd.in/dv3amq7k

In the post-fact era, where strategies and trade policies are made by instinct, using data and statistics to uncover the foundation for decision-making feels a bit old-school. But old school I am. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

What was supposed to be a Bull in a China Shop has turned out to be a Dragon in a Pottery Barn. China has been preparing for the inevitable trade war since the last Trump administration, while US electronics companies have been caught completely unprepared. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

You must place a significant bet years in advance to win in Semiconductors. The best way to identify the bet is to track the development of semiconductor companies' headcounts. If you want to know more about the New Intel and the 2025 Vision: lnkd.in/dhtyY3_b

Only a year ago, Pat Gelsinger intended for Intel to compete with Nvidia, but the new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, is burying that ambition. If the New Intel and the 2025 Vision are important to you, read more here: lnkd.in/drXUPZXJ

With 19% growth in the "Semiconductor Device" market and massive investments in new Semiconductor capacity, you would expect the Semiconductor foundries to run at close to maximum capacity and struggle to follow demand. You would expect wrong. lnkd.in/dPqG8s7P

While you easily could be led to believe that the 12" Semiconductor Wafer is the most common size in the foundry market, you would be wrong. 8" is still the most common size, although a systemic shift is underway: lnkd.in/dPqG8s7P

While all the Hyperscalers are Nvidia customers, they also desperately try to displace Nvidia while the AI leader's profit margins taunt them. If you want to know more about the business case of the Hyperscalers Accelerators attempting to dislodge Nvidia, read more here: lnkd.in/dNK2Xknz

One of Nvidia's masterstrokes is creating Nvidia-branded servers. Not only is Nvidia profiting from the silicon but also from the whole hodge-podge of components that make up a server. lnkd.in/dNK2Xknz

While Cloud companies can choose to buy AI servers from Nvidia or one of their partners, Nvidia's control is absolute. Nvidia's revenue model is complex, but the result is simple. Margins and market shares are decided at internal Nvidia planning meetings. lnkd.in/dNK2Xknz

While the possible end of the Chips Act can help the industry return to normalcy, we are still in the post-Logic era. Withdrawing the Chips Act funding will hurt US companies more than foreign companies. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

The average monthly revenue showed that TSMC entered the year of the Snake easily. The average monthly growth was 2.6%, which confirms that TSMC's annual growth rate is currently above 30%. lnkd.in/d2ZXMHjw

Nvidia was only invited to the Server supplier party but decided to crash the entire AI Server celebration. In the quarter that the Hopper architecture was introduced, Nvidia became the largest server supplier, and its market share continued to grow. lnkd.in/dEbAmc9y

With QoQ growth of 69% in Q3-24, Inspur of China had the highest growth of all companies in the server market. Although the Nvidia and Inspur Quarter is one month skewed, there is good reason to expect a good result. lnkd.in/dEbAmc9y

I use the Taiwanese Electronics Manufacturers' monthly revenues to take the server market's temperature. Read more about the server market here: lnkd.in/dEbAmc9y