SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)

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SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· 19d

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 25 Jul 2026 04:57:22 +0000 🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO
THE HARNEY BASIN...

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
overspread the northern Sierra and pivot clockwise around the upper
ridge to the northern High Plains, supporting dry and gusty
conditions near the surface. As this flow is mixed downward to the
surface by a deep and dry boundary layer during the afternoon areas,
widespread 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will be
common. Given RH dipping to at least 20 percent, widespread Elevated
highlights have been introduced, from the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Additionally, guidance
consensus continues to indicate locally stronger surface wind
fields, atop dry fuels, over portions of northern Montana and the
northern Sierra to Harney Basin. Over both of these areas, 15
percent RH will coincide with the stronger winds for several hours,
warranting Critical highlights.

..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· 19d

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 25 Jul 2026 04:44:29 +0000 🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the western and central CONUS today.
A belt of stronger mid-level flow, accompanied by embedded mid-level
impulses, will traverse the periphery of the upper ridge and
overspread the West Coast toward the northern Rockies. This belt of
stronger flow aloft will support dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread, with deep-layer ascent associated with embedded
impulses also supporting dry thunderstorm initiation, especially
over portions of Montana.

...Parts of the northern Sierra to the northern Rockies...
Through the afternoon, a dry boundary layer will mix upward to the
mid-levels, allowing for downward momentum transport of the
aforementioned stronger mid-level flow aloft. By afternoon peak
heating, sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph
should become widespread, especially in terrain favoring areas, from
the northern Sierra to the northern Rockies. Fifteen percent RH
should be common by afternoon peak heating, overlapping with many
areas experiencing 20+ mph sustained winds, warranting widespread
Critical highlights given dry fuels.

...Portions of Montana...
Guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depicts at
least scattered thunderstorm development across much of Montana by
afternoon as a mid-level impulse overspreads the region. Forecast
soundings show classic inverted-v profiles extending up to 500 mb,
amid appreciable flow aloft. As such, fast-moving and high-based
storms will promote dry lightning strikes over fuel beds receptive
to fire spread, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.
Furthermore, strong vertical wind shear will accompany the mid-level
impulse, and given appreciable buoyancy aloft, several of these
storms may produce strong to severe wind gusts, which may exacerbate
any ongoing fires or holdovers. Please see the latest Day 1
Convective outlook for more details on the severe thunderstorm
threat.

..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· 27d

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 17 Jul 2026 06:51:42 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
Between a midlevel trough moving across BC and an expansive
large-scale ridge over the central/western CONUS, enhanced
deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry
boundary layer (around 10-15 percent RH) in the lee of the northern
Sierra and Cascades. These dry conditions combined with around 15
mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated
fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given dry/receptive
fuels.

..Weinman.. 07/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· 27d

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 17 Jul 2026 06:51:40 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
A midlevel low will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast
today. Between this feature and an expansive upper ridge over the
Rockies and Great Basin, a belt of enhanced south-southwesterly
low/mid-level flow will overspread the northern Great Basin and
Northwest. Downslope-enhanced warming/drying in the lee of the
northern Cascades and Columbia Basin will result in deep
boundary-layer mixing (10-15 percent RH). These warm/dry conditions
combined with around 15 mph sustained southwesterly winds atop
receptive fuels will yield elevated fire-weather conditions during
the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 07/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Jul 14

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 14 Jul 2026 05:57:20 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...Synopsis...
An expansive mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. as a
surface trough lingers across the northern Plains, bringing another
day of fire weather concerns to parts of the northern High Plains
via dry and breezy conditions. Gusty onshore winds across the
California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley will promote a
fire weather threat Wednesday as fuels continue to dry.

...Central California Coastal Ranges and Central Valley...
Onshore flow aided by downslope drying and terrain accelerated winds
will support elevated fire weather conditions across the central CA
coastal ranges into the adjacent Central Valley. Fuels continue to
dry with ERC values reaching the 90-95th percentile range under very
warm temperatures. These winds generally from the west and northwest
at 10-15 mph (locally 20-25 mph in favored terrain gaps) combined
with RH of 15-20% in the coastal ranges to as low as 10% in the
Central valley, will support elevated fire weather conditions
Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

...Northern High Plains...
Hot and dry conditions under a stagnant mid-level ridge over the
central U.S. are expected across portions of the northern Plains
Wednesday. At the surface, a trough over southeastern MT will
bolster low-level southeasterly flow (up to 15 mph sustained) over
portions of western SD, NE Panhandle and northern CO. These winds
coinciding with RH in the 15-20% range will yield elevated fire
weather conditions amid very dry fuels Wednesday afternoon. Elevated
highlights were extended into central WY given latest forecast
guidance with expected RH as low as 10 percent and steady easterly
winds.

..Williams.. 07/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Jul 14

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 14 Jul 2026 05:54:29 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad ridging aloft will encompass much of the northern CONUS,
promoting hot, dry conditions across portions of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest. A surface trough extending northeastward into the
western Dakotas will facilitate stronger low-level winds within the
very dry air mass, heightening fire weather concerns across portions
of the northern High Plains into central WY and north-central CO
this afternoon. A mid-level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest
along with a more restricted/peripheral monsoon moisture pool, will
support isolated dry thunderstorms across the more complex terrain
of northern CA into OR and far northwestern NV this afternoon.

...Northern High Plains and Central Wyoming...
A broad subsidence regime in place across the central U.S. evidenced
by recent water vapor satellite imagery will sustain very warm and
dry conditions today while supporting well above normal temperatures
for the Northern Plains. A surface trough will promote increasing
southeast winds of around 15 mph across portions of the northern
High Plains amid RH as low as 10 percent by peak heating. These
conditions combined with critically dry fuels (ERCs in the 95-98th
percentile range) will yield elevated fire weather conditions this
afternoon. The wind direction veers to the east across central
Wyoming amid a similarly dry fuelscape and low RH environment. A
minor expansion of elevated highlights was warranted based on latest
forecast guidance.

...Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern
California and northwestern Nevada...
A plume of deeper monsoon moisture over the western Great Basin and
Sierra Nevada will arc northward around the western edge of the
mid-level ridge through early morning, reaching the Northern Rockies
this afternoon. Peripheral moisture, with precipitable water values
tapering off to 0.70" closer to the Cascade Crest will remain across
portions of central OR into northern CA. An upper trough impinging
upon the Pacific Northwest along with afternoon instability will
promote isolated dry thunderstorms across northern CA and southern
OR. Latest CAM guidance suggests a threat of nocturnal convection,
lingering into early Wednesday morning, along and east of the OR
Cascades as a subtle embedded wave accelerates northward across the
region. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were expanded as far
north as the Columbia River Gorge where fuels are incrementally more
receptive. Anomalously high atmospheric moisture should support
higher probabilities of wetting rain cores across eastern OR and
northwest NV with precipitable water values ranging from 1.2-1.4".
Thus, trimmed the eastern extent of isolated dry thunderstorm threat
to account for expected mitigating rainfall.

..Williams.. 07/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Jul 14

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 13 Jul 2026 20:59:16 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
A strong upper high will persist over the central/northern Plains
through the end of this week into the early weekend. Upper-level
troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast
with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the
Intermountain West this week; meanwhile, daily monsoonal
thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin.
An upper-level trough is forecast to move near/into the Pacific
Northwest early Day 4/Thursday, potentially suppressing moisture
south and eastward. However, model spread and ambiguity in the
spatial extent/strength of troughing yields significant uncertainty
in the progression of the upper pattern across the West. Farther
east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over
the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days
2-3/Tuesday-Wednesday, leading to unsettled conditions across the
region through the remainder of the forecast period.

...Central to northern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of
eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern
Colorado on Day 3/Wednesday through at least Day 4/Thursday. While
RH is expected to recover overnight, south-southeast winds are
likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels and hot daytime temperatures.
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained; however, may need
to be confined in future outlooks as predictability increases in the
evolution of the upper pattern.

...Portions of northeastern California and the Central Valley,
western Great Basin, and far south-central Oregon...
Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels
across the California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs
are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-late week amid
dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the
emergence of lightning holdovers from wet/dry thunderstorms early in
the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities remain on Days
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday to account for this threat. Farther north,
guidance has backed off on the timing of stronger winds overlapping
low RH, resulting in 40% Critical probabilities being removed on Day
3/Wednesday across northeastern California and adjacent areas. Yet,
the potential for stronger flow amid a returning dry airmass on Day
4/Thursday warrants the introduction of 40% Critical probabilities.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Jul 7

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 06 Jul 2026 22:06:27 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

...Synopsis...
Overall, this week exhibits a critical fire weather pattern for
portions of the Intermountain West with hot, dry and windy
conditions followed by thunderstorms, then dry and breezy conditions
once again later in the week. An upper-level trough will move into
southwest Canada Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, with zonal westerly
flow and a flattened ridge over the northern half to two-thirds of
the West. As the upper-level ridge flattens, the upper high
retrogrades off the southern California coast. A weak dry cold front
will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin mid-week,
with moisture and above normal temperatures ahead of it. Moisture
will likely push east of the Colorado Rockies and be suppressed
southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico beyond Day 5/Friday as
a ridge builds across the western CONUS. Forecast uncertainty exists
late in the period regarding how an upper-level trough off the
Pacific Northwest coast will interact with the likely building
upper-level ridge over most of the West, especially the
Intermountain West Day 6/Saturday - Day 8/Monday.

...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely
across portions of the northern/eastern Great Basin into the Four
Corners on Day 3/Wednesday. The 10% area was expanded into southern
ID where a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may overlap pockets of dry
and receptive fuels. A 40% Critical area was maintained for low RH
and gusty conditions in the Washington Cascade Gaps into the
Columbia Basin, while a more expansive 40% Critical was introduced
across much of the Great Basin into northern AZ. Dry and breezy
conditions continue on Day 4/Thursday across the southern Great
Basin into the Four Corners. Following several days of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms, these conditions could promote the emergence of any
holdover lightning ignitions.

...Day 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
An upper-level ridge will build across the western-central CONUS
later this week, amplifying through the weekend. Meanwhile, upper
troughing should persist over the Pacific Northwest, further
enhancing southwesterly flow aloft and dry downslope flow over the
northern Sierra Nevada into the southern Cascades. 40% Critical
probabilities were introduced on both days where guidance depicts
dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels. The spatial extent of drawn
probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as extended
guidance becomes better resolved.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Jun 30

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 30 Jun 2026 05:49:29 +0000 🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA...EASTERN
UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will remain over the West with a
shortwave moving from the southern Great Basin into the central
Rockies. Southwest mid-level flow of 30-50 knots will overspread the
greater Four Corners region as downslope flow and lee troughing are
expected again on the central/southern High Plains.

...Greater Four Corners Region...
Stronger southwest flow aloft will mix to the surface across the
greater Four Corners region, resulting in southwest sustained winds
of 15-25 mph amid minimum RH of 5-15%. Northeast Arizona through
eastern Utah, western Colorado, and into far northwest New Mexico
will have critical fire weather conditions for several hours, likely
beginning by late morning and continuing into the evening. Locally
extremely critical conditions are possible (5-20% probabilities) in
eastern Utah and western Colorado during the afternoon, while
locally critical fire weather conditions are likely along/east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Front Range. Elevated
conditions are expected in portions of eastern Colorado and
northeast New Mexico amid southerly winds of 15-20 mph and minimum
RH of 15-20%, but the duration and magnitude are likely to be
limited by thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across portions of
north-central New Mexico into south-central Colorado. Wetter storms
and greater storm coverage are likely to the south and east of the
IsoDryT area. Deep pyroconvection is possible on active large fires
in the vicinity of the overlap of elevated/locally critical fire
weather conditions and the IsoDryT area.

..Nauslar.. 06/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Jun 26

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 26 Jun 2026 08:03:22 +0000 🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN
COLORADO...

...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong mid-level trough will continue to dig into the
western CONUS on D2/Saturday, with an attendant mid-level jet
overspreading much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. This will
continue to support a robust fire weather pattern across an
expansive portion of the Great Basin and Southwest through the
weekend.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
As the mid-level jet associated with the digging mid-level trough
shifts eastward into the Upper Colorado River Valley, a corridor of
stronger, sustained surface winds (25-30 mph) will expand from
southeastern Nevada into the Colorado Plateau and overlap with very
low RH values of 10-15%. Exacerbated by dry, windy conditions on
D1/Friday, fuels will be very receptive, with ERCs already noted in
the 80-90+ percentiles. These conditions will promote an extended
period of critical fire weather conditions from southeastern Nevada
into the Upper Colorado River Basin and southern Wyoming. Localized
extremely critical wind/RH conditions are possible, particularly
across southeastern Utah and perhaps into southwestern Colorado
where latest high-res guidance suggests that the best overlap of
sustained southwesterly winds approaching 30 mph and very low RH
near 10% may occur. Pockets of fuels in this region are also noted
to be at or above the 95th percentile. A broader area of elevated
wind/RH conditions are expected across adjacent areas of the Great
Basin/Southwest where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to
overlap dry fuels and RH values of 10-20%.

The primary change with this outlook was to expand the Critical
highlights into north central Colorado based on the latest high-res
guidance. Consideration was given to the addition of a targeted
Extremely Critical area; however, some uncertainty remains regarding
the duration of overlap between sustained winds exceeding 30 mph and
RH values dropping below 10%. A portion of the Elevated highlights
were also trimmed across central Wyoming and the foothills of
northern Colorado owing to recent rainfall.

..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Jun 26

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 26 Jun 2026 08:02:28 +0000 🔥EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO...

...Synopsis...
Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest today as a robust fire weather pattern
begins for an expansive portion of the Intermountain West. This
pattern will bring exceptionally dry and windy conditions following
antecedent dry thunderstorm activity over the past 1-2 days,
resulting in significant fire weather concerns for any new
ignitions, lingering holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the
western CONUS.

...Northwestern Arizona and far southeastern Nevada into central
Utah...
A seasonably strong mid-level trough will dig into the western CONUS
today, with an attendant mid-level jet overspreading portions of the
Great Basin as upper-level ridging amplifies over the Great Plains.
This will promote a deepening surface cyclone over the northern
Great Basin, which will subsequently support a strong surface
pressure gradient across much of the Intermountain West when
combined with surface high pressure over New Mexico. Latest high-res
guidance continues to depict a corridor of strong southwesterly
winds (sustained 25-35 mph) developing amid very low RH values of
5-15% from far southeastern Nevada and northwestern Arizona into
central Utah. With very dry and receptive fuels across this region
(ERCs in the 80-90+ percentiles) and ongoing large wildfire
activity, these conditions will yield an extremely critical fire
weather threat across this region. Deep boundary layer mixing
coupled with the aforementioned mid-level jet will also promote wind
gusts to 45 mph. A more expansive area of elevated to critical fire
weather concerns is expected across adjacent areas of the Great
Basin where modestly weaker sustained surface winds (generally 15-25
mph) are forecast to overlap very low RH values of 5-20%. An
extended period of critical wind/RH conditions (perhaps 10+ hours
for some locations), poor overnight humidity recoveries, and
residual gusty winds are forecast. Only minor adjustments were made
to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest available
guidance, and minor trimming was done on the northeastern extent of
the Elevated highlights in central Wyoming to account for heavier
rainfall on Thursday.

...Colorado Plateau...
Increasing mid-level flow and ascent ahead of the approaching
mid-level trough (coupled with dry boundary layer profiles and PWAT
values of 0.5-0.8") will support the potential for isolated dry
thunderstorms this afternoon from northwestern New Mexico into much
of western Colorado. While storm motions are anticipated to be
generally 20-30+ kts, pockets of heavier rainfall totals are
possible, especially across northwestern New Mexico and southwestern
Colorado where the latest guidance suggests PWAT contents and storm
coverage may be locally greater. Thus, a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms is likely. Pockets of lingering receptive fuels (ERCs
in the 80-90+ percentile) will continue to be receptive to lightning
ignitions, however, and concerns regarding any lightning ignitions
increase as multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are
expected this weekend.

..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 4

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 04 May 2026 06:38:17 +0000 🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Flow aloft will increase over much of the southern US Tuesday as the
southern stream upper low merges with the second trough over the
northern and central US. As the upper-level troughs deepen, a
surface low over OK will move southward ahead of a surging cold
front over the Plains, while gusty winds are expected over parts of
the eastern US.

...West TX...
The cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Tuesday,
pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into Central/West
Texas. South of the front, westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected
along with RH below 25%. This could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent plentiful rainfall has
tempered marginal fuels such that widespread fire-weather conditions
appear unlikely. Additional precipitation and cooler temperatures
north of the front should limit fire-weather potential over the
central US.

...Mid Atlantic...
As the upper trough over the central US consolidates, another day of
gusty southerly winds is likely over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Warm
daytime temperatures and minimal moisture ahead of a cold front
could support localized fire-weather conditions over parts of the
Carolinas and VA. However, fuels remain limited and any fire-weather
conditions should be short lived, precluding highlights.

..Lyons.. 05/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 4

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 04 May 2026 06:37:27 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...Synopsis...
A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it
merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second
upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced
westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over
the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy
conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated
fire-weather conditions likely.

...Southern Plains...
Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen
over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a
developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry
westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent
RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This
should support several hours of elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact
dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is
also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern
edge of the Elevated probabilities.

...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains
and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud
cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of
drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of
20-30 mph.

...Mid Atlantic...
Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to
develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont.
A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low
over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will
be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent
precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns,
though some localized risk remains possible.

..Lyons.. 05/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 4

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 03 May 2026 21:13:17 +0000 🔥Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
the forecast period.

A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
hinders a broader fire concern.

A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
probabilities on both days.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 3

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 03 May 2026 07:00:19 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLED WORD

...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off
low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet
stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern
Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will
promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains
supporting elevated fire-weather potential.

...Southern Plains...
Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains
Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the
Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest
surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and
15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels,
exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support
several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a
developing dryline.

...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern
Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and
cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets
of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds.

..Lyons.. 05/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 2

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 02 May 2026 06:51:19 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper
trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the
Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain
northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the
strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry
conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains.

...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface,
an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central
Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten
across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy
conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the
low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%.
Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should
promote elevated fire-weather potential.

...Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave
trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the
afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to
decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some
localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler
temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that
widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.

..Lyons.. 05/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 2

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 02 May 2026 06:49:27 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
persists over the central US.

...FL...
Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.

A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
duration.

Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
developing behind the front.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
conditions given dry fuels.

..Lyons.. 05/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 1

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 01 May 2026 07:13:24 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US
Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will
drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry
conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of
the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains
ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move
southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy
conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.

...FL...
Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of
central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger
than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow
aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH
below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall
and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns
should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible
into the evening and overnight.

...Northern Plains...
On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave
will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out
southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH
values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy
conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather
concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern
MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.

..Lyons.. 05/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 1

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 01 May 2026 07:02:27 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing, with multiple embedded perturbations
should gradually deepen over the eastern US today as ridging builds
across the Great Basin. West of the ridge, a closed low will develop
offshore and slowly move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Strong
westerly flow is expected over much of the Gulf Coast and eastern US
as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Widespread
precipitation is forecast along and north of the front which should
greatly limit fire-weather potential outside of FL.

...FL...
South of the slow-moving front across the Gulf Coast and northern
FL, enhanced westerly flow is expected over the central and eastern
Peninsula this afternoon. While not overly strong (10-15 mph gusts),
the breezy conditions should develop beneath clear skies, a
relatively dry air mass with RH values of 30-35% and surface
temperatures near 90F. Widespread receptive fuels (ERCs in the
90-97th percentiles) will support elevated fire weather conditions.

..Lyons.. 05/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· May 1

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 30 Apr 2026 21:24:15 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will lead to dry and breezy
conditions south of a cold front, increasing the fire weather threat
across FL on Day 3/Saturday. The cold front and associated rainfall
will finally advance southeastward over the weekend, providing a
temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to much of
the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front
sweeping southeastward under broader northeasterly flow should bring
stronger west-northwest winds and low RH to portions of the northern
Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions return to the
Southwest Day 4/Sunday and Southern High Plains Day
5-6/Monday-Tuesday as upper low gradually shifts into the region.

...Day 3/Saturday...
...Florida...
Stronger west winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) ahead of a cold front
advancing southeastward from the northern Gulf Coast will bring a
fire weather threat to the FL Peninsula on Day 3/Saturday. RH
reductions could be limited to 35% locally due to increasing cloud
cover but fuels remain very receptive amid expanding drought where
40% critical probabilities remain.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level short wave will translate southeastward into the
Northern Plains from the southern Canadian Prairies on Day
3/Saturday. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward
from a parent low across ND will sweep into the eastern MT and
Dakotas. Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front combined
with dry fuels could allow for heightened fire weather concerns
across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where
recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced to account for this fire weather
threat.

...Days 4-6/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Sunday, with downslope drying and
enhanced winds evolving in the Southern High Plains Monday and
Tuesday. However, preceding widespread rainfall in the tonight and
Day 2/Friday time frame in addition to ongoing green up across the
region should limit the impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather
concern.

..Williams.. 04/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Apr 21

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 20 Apr 2026 21:51:16 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will traverse the Great Basin on Day
3/Wednesday and persist over the northwest and central CONUS through
the early weekend. Upper ridging will continue over the eastern U.S.
through Day 4/Thursday before transitioning to fairly zonal flow
over the Southeast through the weekend. Precipitation will be
possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Appalachians
with an associated shortwave trough on Day 3/Wednesday. However,
much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will remain fairly dry this
week as surface high pressure builds across the region through Day
5/Friday. On Day 6/Saturday, a low-amplitude trough is forecast to
enter the southwestern U.S and traverse the High Plains early next
week. This pattern change could bring relief to portions of the
central/southern Plains and broader southeast as precipitation
chances increase. However, in areas that remain dry, fire weather
concerns are likely to linger given the overall pattern.

...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
On Day 3/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse will bring precipitation
chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic along a weak cold front.
Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow aloft will support dry and
breezy downslope conditions where 97th-99th percentile ERCs have
been observed across the Carolinas. 40% Critical probabilities were
maintained where westerly winds of up to 15 mph and 20-30 percent RH
are forecast to overlap dry fuels.

A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the
approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft
will bring an expansive fire weather threat to much of the High
Plains and portions of the Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. 70%
critical probabilities have been expanded where a mid-level jet
should align with tightening surface pressure gradients, promoting
strong southwesterly winds of up to 30 mph and RH of 10 percent or
less. Downslope enhanced drying and strong westerly winds will
continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day
4/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40%
Critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and
Southern Plains, and 70% Critical probabilities were introduced on
Day 4/Thursday for eastern NM into the TX Panhandle where a corridor
of strong downslope winds and critically low RH will overlap dry
fuels.

...Day 5-7/Friday-Sunday...
As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal
flow over the Southwest should promote very breezy and continued dry
conditions on Day 5/Friday. 40% Critical probabilities were
introduced where ensemble guidance portrays an overlap of low RH and
strong winds. An incoming secondary trough may continue fire weather
concerns across the Southwest and south/central Plains this weekend
where fuels remain dry. However, model ambiguity in timing and
location of the trough precludes the introduction of probabilities
at this time.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Apr 9

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 08 Apr 2026 22:05:16 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on Day
3/Friday while another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into
the Northeast and temporary zonal flow continues over the Great
Plains. On Day 4/Saturday, an upper-level shortwave will move across
the central U.S., sending the first lee-surface low northeastward
over the Great Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Monday. A secondary
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 6/Monday, traversing
the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Tuesday. This scenario
is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of
the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire
weather threats. Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will
be possible, but are difficult to pin point due to the highly
dynamic pattern.

...Great Basin - Day 3/Friday...
The best chances for fire weather conditions under southerly flow
will occur on Day 3/Friday across portions of eastern UT into
western CO. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph)
combined with 15-20% RH atop preconditioned, drying fuels from Day
2/Thursday is expected to generate Elevated fire weather conditions.
Precipitation arrival on Day 4/Saturday afternoon may provide relief
to any ongoing or new fire starts.

...Middle Mississippi Valley - Day 5/Sunday...
Ongoing drying conditions through the rest of this week and
increasing potential for 10+ mph southerly winds on Day 5/Sunday may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR, southeastern MO, and western TN. Portions of this region range
from D2-D4 drought, though higher chances for wetting rainfall does
arrive middle of next week. Given model uncertainty in how far
northeast the gulf moisture may advect combined with questionable
fuels, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.

...Southern/Central Plains - Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 5/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 6/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline and along a downslope regime will need to be watched closely
for fire weather concerns. However, given model uncertainty in the
timing of the shortwave and coincident surface low development, and
the potential for widespread appreciable rainfall on Day 3/Friday -
Day 4/Saturday, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Apr 8

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:18:17 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will be in place across much of the Rockies on
D2/Thursday as a closed upper-level trough approaches the California
coastline and a series of shortwave troughs rotates through the
northern Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak low pressure
center is forecast to develop across southeastern Colorado, with a
trailing dryline extending southward across the central High Plains
and a cold front extending northeastward across the central Great
Plains.

...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to 10-20% across
portions of the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon amid peak
mixing. Latest high-res guidance also suggests that a tightened
surface pressure gradient will favor sustained south-southwesterly
winds around 15 mph across this region. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the region, this combination of winds/RH is expected to
promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, extreme southeastern Colorado,
the western Oklahoma Panhandle, and the northwestern Texas
Panhandle.

Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers
(forecast soundings suggest boundary layers may extend up to ~500 mb
or 3-4 km AGL), may also support the development of isolated,
high-based convection across the region. With PWATs on the order of
half an inch or less, little precipitation is expected, but
outflow/wind gusts from this convection may locally augment surface
winds speeds. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-100 J/kg MUCAPE atop the boundary layer, an occasional dry
lightning strike may also be possible across this area. Confidence
in the coverage of potential dry thunderstorms remains low at this
time, but trends will be monitored for future outlook issuances.

...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap low RH of
15-20% across portions of the southern Great Basin and Southwest.
These factors may generate locally elevated fire weather concerns
Thursday afternoon; however, recent cooler weather, precipitation,
and resultant marginal fuels are expected to temper widespread fire
weather concerns at this time.

..Chalmers.. 04/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Apr 8

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:53:16 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
Fairly zonal flow dominates much of central CONUS on Day 3/Thursday
as upper-level troughing traverses the Northeast and a cutoff low
approaches the California coast. However, it's not until Day
4/Friday into Day 5/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 6/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
are difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.

...Great Basin/Southwest - Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday
across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest.
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph combined with 15-20% RH in
northwest AZ and southern NV may generate locally elevated fire
weather concerns on Day 3/Thursday. Similar conditions also appear
likely across eastern UT on Day 4/Friday. However, recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels
will preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
precipitation appears likely with the aforementioned low pressure
system later in the week.

...Southern Plains - Day 6/Sunday through Day 7/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 6/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 7/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline will need to be watched closely for fire weather concerns.
However, given model uncertainty in the timing of the shortwave and
coincident surface low development, and the potential for widespread
appreciable rainfall on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday, critical
probabilities have been withheld for now.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Apr 7

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 06 Apr 2026 20:46:16 +0000 🔥Southeast (Day 3/Wednesday)🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

An upper-level trough will be progressing eastward along the
Canadian border with the base of the jet over the northern Plains on
Day 3/Wednesday. A cutoff upper-level low approaches the California
coast simultaneously on Day 3/Wednesday. However, it's not until Day
5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 7/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.

...Southeast (Day 3/Wednesday)...
With surface high pressure still to the north over the eastern Great
Lakes, continued offshore flow will likely contribute to at least
elevated fire weather conditions across eastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina. This regime will result in northeast 10-15 mph winds
combined with RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating period.

...Southern Plains (Day 3/Wednesday and Day 7/Sunday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds up to 15 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Much of
this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system ejects eastward across the
central portions of the CONUS next weekend. However, the latest
forecast guidance indicates that some locations may struggle to
accumulate much rainfall. If this trend holds true, future areas of
critical probabilities may be needed as the forecast becomes more
clear.

...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday)...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under the
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday
across areas of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. However,
recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably
receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While
this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions
across this region, additional precipitation also appears likely
with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.

..Stearns.. 04/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Apr 6

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 05 Apr 2026 20:17:16 +0000 🔥Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.

...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.

...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.

...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.

..Stearns.. 04/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Mar 29

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 28 Mar 2026 21:48:16 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...Synopsis...
Model guidance continues to suggest a more active upper-level wave
pattern emerging next week across the CONUS, ushering in
opportunities for much needed precipitation across the western U.S.
and portions of the Plains where fuels remain very dry. An embedded
mid-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and surface lee
troughing across the Plains will present a broad fire weather
concern for D3/Monday across portions of the eastern UT into WY and
along the central and southern High Plains. The overall fire weather
threat becomes more confined to portions of the Southwest as cooler
temperatures and precipitation gradually reduce fire weather
concerns across much of the contiguous U.S., as a deeper upper-level
trough moves into the Northwest mid to late next week.

...Day 3/Monday...
...Eastern UT/Western CO, WY and Central/Southern High Plains...
An embedded mid-level short wave trough moving through the Northern
Rockies along with deepening surface lee troughing across the
central/northern Plains will support a dry, downslope enhanced
regime across much of the central and southern High Plains on
D3/Monday. 70% critical probabilities were added across portions of
central and eastern WY with strong west winds of at least 20-30 mph
and low relative humidity align with dry fuels. Dry downslope
westerly flow should encompass much of the central and southern High
Plains Monday as a dry, well-mixed boundary layer evolves while
increasing Gulf moisture makes a return across much of the eastern
U.S. 40% critical probabilities were added to much of the central
and southern High Plains with very dry fuels in place and above
normal temperatures persisting through early next week.

...Eastern Arizona and Western NM...
Influx of mid and upper-level moisture from Baja California along
with daytime instability should lead to a few thunderstorms mainly
over higher terrain within a relatively weak shear environment. A
dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall across the
region with some ignition potential in dry fuels.

...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft and lee surface troughing across the
Southern High Plains should support dry and breezy conditions across
portions of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle on D4/Tuesday. A 40%
critical area was introduced given receptive fuels remain in place.
A more pronounced mid-level short wave trough and associated jet
could bring additional fire weather impacts to the Southern High
Plains D5/Wednesday. Some uncertainty exists particularly across
northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle in timing of short wave and
related surface cold front passage. Introduced 40% critical
probabilities for southeastern NM and far west TX, but could be
expanded northward in subsequent outlooks as new model guidance
becomes available.

..Williams.. 03/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Mar 29

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 28 Mar 2026 20:03:18 +0000 🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...

...Southeastern Wyoming...
Critical Highlights were added to portions of southeastern WY. Deep
layer westerly flow at the apex of an upper-level ridge will persist
over the Northern Rockies through D2/Sunday. Despite some high cloud
cover moving into the Intermountain West, a dry, well mixed-boundary
layer should promote stronger surface winds, particularly across
southeastern WY, where near record high temperatures and relative
humidity of around 15% will align to promote critical fire weather
conditions for Sunday.

...Eastern Great Basin...Northwestern Arizona into western WY and CO
Western Slope...
Existing elevated fire weather highlights were expanded to include
eastern UT and western CO. A very dry and warm air mass under the
ridge across the Intermountain West will persist into Sunday. A
weak, mid-level wave will bolster southwest winds across the region
as relative humidity falls into the 15-20% range by afternoon,
possibly as low as 10% in some lower elevation areas. West-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph will combine with low RH, near record high
temperatures and drying fuels to bring an elevated fire weather
threat to portions of southeastern NV and northwestern AZ into
southern UT, western CO and western WY.

...Blue Ridge Mountains and Eastern Tennessee Valley...
Dry return flow commences Sunday across the Southeast as surface
high pressure slides east of the Mid Atlantic. Southerly winds up to
15 mph coupled with relative humidity as low as 15% will support an
elevated fire weather threat across the eastern TN Valley and
adjacent Cumberland Plateau areas amid an increasingly dry
fuelscape.

...Southern Plains...
Surface lee troughing across the Southern Plains and persistently
westerly flow aloft should bring dry downslope flow into eastern NM
northward into south-central CO along and east of the leeward slopes
of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. West winds of around 15 mph and
relative humidity as low as 10% will pose an elevated fire weather
threat for Sunday. Extended Elevated Highlights into the TX
Panhandle and western OK as southwest winds of 10-20 mph amid RH
between 15-25% develops in response to lee troughing across the
Central Plains. A return of deeper Gulf moisture across eastern
TX/OK should limit RH reductions, mitigating the overall fire
weather threat.

...Southern Arizona...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture across the Desert Southwest
along with afternoon heating and resultant instability should
support isolated showers and thunderstorms across southern AZ Sunday
afternoon. PWATs of 0.5-0.8" with a prominent dry sub-cloud layer
should limit precipitation, allowing some threat of dry
thunderstorms to evolve. Fuels remain receptive with isolated dry
thunderstorm threat now primarily within southern AZ based on latest
model guidance.

..Williams.. 03/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/

...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will begin to slide southeastward to
the far southern Great Plains on D2/Sunday, while enhanced, zonal
flow persists across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high
pressure will move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast, bringing
return flow to much of the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold
front will begin to push southward across the northern Great Plains
and Northwest.

...Portions of the central/northern High Plains...
Modest westerly, mid-level flow will persist across portions of the
central/northern Rockies on D2/Sunday, favoring a dry, downslope
regime across much of Wyoming. Westerly winds of 15-25 mph are
expected to overlap low RH values of 10-20%. With receptive fuels in
place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather
concerns to much of southern and central Wyoming into extreme
northern Colorado and the extreme western Nebraska Panhandle.
Consideration was given to a localized area of Critical highlights
across portions of central/southeast Wyoming, but uncertainty
remains regarding a more widespread overlap of RH less than 15% and
20+ mph winds at this time. Regardless, localized critical
conditions appears possible, and trends will be monitored for the
possibility of a future upgrade.

Some high-res guidance suggests that locally elevated conditions may
occur in association with a brief period of stronger surface winds
(15-20 mph) funneling down the North Platte River Valley farther
east across western Nebraska. However, most current guidance
suggests that winds will largely remain less than 15 mph across this
region. Thus, elevated highlights were withheld at this time despite
minimum RH values forecast around 10-20%.

...Southern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy flow is forecast across portions of the southern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak, mid-level shortwave
trough. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected where
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph, very low RH of 15-20%, and
abnormally dry fuels align.

...Northeastern New Mexico...
While mid-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak across much
of the southern Rockies, a corridor of marginally enhanced westerly
flow aloft is forecast to support dry, downslope winds across
portions of northeastern New Mexico. Sustained westerly winds of
15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for at least
a few hours Sunday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across
the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to
portions of northeastern New Mexico.

...Southern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico...
Weak southwesterly flow aloft along the northwestern periphery of an
upper-level ridge is forecast to yield increasing mid/upper level
Pacific moisture, with PWATs forecast to range from 0.5-0.8" by
Sunday afternoon. While better moisture appears to be delayed until
later Sunday night and into Monday, latest guidance depicts the
development of weak instability (~50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across
portions of southern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico late Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation totals are forecast to be light, with deep,
dry boundary layers and LCLs around 3 km AGL. This should support at
least some potential for isolated dry thunder atop dry, receptive
fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Mar 28

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 27 Mar 2026 22:02:16 +0000 🔥Synopsis🔥 Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge begins to slide eastward into the central U.S.
early next week while a mid-level trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest. A split jet flow emerges across the western U.S. by Day
5/Tuesday with more a more pronounced and progressive wave pattern
persisting across the northern CONUS through late next week. The
modest westerly flow aloft under the ridge and lee surface troughing
across the northern High Plains will support a fire weather threat
across WY into the NE Panhandle on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday as strong
west winds align with dry fuels, above normal temperatures and low
relative humidity. Farther south, mid to upper-level Pacific
moisture ahead of an approaching upper trough and daytime
instability over higher terrain may support some thunderstorm
development and ignition potential across portions of AZ and NM on
Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday. Fire weather concerns shift eastward into the
Southern Plains on Day 5/Monday with the arrival of a more
pronounced short wave embedded within the weaker, southern jet
stream. Fire weather concerns should wane for the latter part of
next week across the West as another trough enters the Northwest
bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation to portions of
Intermountain West.

...Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday...
...Wyoming/Central High Plains and Southern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy conditions under deep layer westerly flow amid
abnormally warm temperatures, low RH and dry fuels should support a
fire weather threat across southern WY into the central High Plains
on Day 3/Sunday, where a 40% critical probability area remains. 40%
probabilities were also added to portions of the southern Great
Basin across far southeastern NV, southwestern UT and northwestern
AZ ahead of an embedded weak mid-level short wave where stronger
southwest winds, low RH and abnormally dry fuels align.

...Arizona and New Mexico...
The threat of dry thunderstorms has diminished particularly on
Sunday across southwestern NM and southeastern AZ based on latest
model guidance consensus, with injection of mid/upper Pacific
moisture within broader southwest flow delayed until Sunday night
into Monday. A more favorable thunderstorm environment evolves for
Monday across the Southwest, with a few lightning ignitions
possible, mainly across the higher terrain and higher fuel
landscapes of eastern AZ and western NM. Fuels are unusually dry
within a virtually snow free landscape that could be receptive to
ignitions.

...Day 5/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Increasing west-southwesterly flow within the southern, subtropical
jet arrives into the Southwest and Southern Plains by Day 5/Tuesday
as a cold front trails southwestward into the region from a strong
surface across the Great Lakes. This will support a dry downslope
regime behind a dry line across portions of eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle. Breezy west winds, low RH and dry fuels supports at least
an elevated fire weather threat to the area, with an eventual wind
shift from a southward advancing cold front that could have further
impacts on existing or new wildfires. Thus 40% critical
probabilities remain for portions of the Southern Plains.

..Williams.. 03/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)@spc-fire· Mar 28

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 27 Mar 2026 19:56:17 +0000 🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING🔥 Additional Details Here.