Stephen Miles

@spmiles42

Former President of Win Without War, lover of Philly sports, and opinionated observer of foreign policy.

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Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Jul 17

There are few more entrenched beliefs in DC's natsec elite than "escalating to deescalate." Trump may be a radical departure from many, many norms, but when it comes to trying to bomb his way to peace, he's decidedly conventional (and catastrophically wrong). via Axios: www.axios.com/2026/07/17/t...

The big picture: Among the options being considered are bombing Iranian infrastructure facilities like power plants, conducting more attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in order to bury Iran's enriched uranium even deeper, and bombing the Pickaxe Mountain underground site that is suspected to be a facility in the making.

Trump hasn't made a final decision yet, but he appears willing to escalate the war to cause enough damage that the Iranian regime will open the Strait of Hormuz and accept Trump's nuclear demands.
Trump could order an escalation in the coming days, U.S. and Israeli officials say.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Jun 17

Trump’s own team doesn’t seem thrilled with being forced to come to terms with the historic level of failure of Trump’s Iran war…

A U.S. official familiar with the negotiators, granted anonymity to discuss the deal, expressed concerns about how well Trump’s team — including JARED KUSHNER, STEVE WITKOFF and Vice President JD VANCE — had briefed the president on the framework.

“Aside from Vance, Kushner and Witkoff, no principal believes this is a remotely good deal,” the official said. “It’s horrible. It’s capitulation. The Iranians won’t give us anything on nuclear or anything else in these next 60 days. They know once the strait is open we will have zero credible threat of force or will to do it. And the money and sanctions stuff is crazy.”

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 20

The numbers for Trump on his disastrous #IranWar continue to be brutal. The war, and Trump's handling of it, have been awful for Trump since day 1, but what's often overlooked is the intensity gap is massive and a far bigger problem for him than just the topline opposition. People HATE this war.

a screenshot of polling findings about American's disapproval of Trump's war with Iran

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 16

Republicans just once again killed a War Powers Resolution to end Trump's reckless and criminal war in Iran. Maine Dem Jared Golden was sole Dem no vote & Ohio GOP Rep Warren Davidson switched from previously supporting a WPR to voting "present" to help save Trump and Johnson from losing the vote

A screencap of a tweet from Connor O'Brien sharing the vote outcome

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 12

And his quote post of himself

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 12

Trump’s response to the ending of talks in Islamabad.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 9

New ad from @winwithoutwar.bsky.social in today's @post-gazette.com calling out @fetterman.senate.gov for his support for Trump's Iran war. #NotOneMoreDime

Ad ad in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette calling out Senator John Fetterman for his support for Trump's war in Iran.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 9

It remains truly maddening that the “significant achievement” some are now pointing to as the best possible outcome of this horrific war is a half-assed, much worse version of what was negotiated more than a decade ago in the JCPOA. Diplomacy worked. War failed. www.axios.com/2026/04/08/u...

A screen capture of an Axios news story that says:

What to watch: Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv tells Axios the primary concern is the extent to which the upcoming talks will address the nuclear issue.

"There are three minimum requirements that must be met: the removal of 60% enriched uranium from Iran, the dilution of 20% enriched material to a low level, and the suspension of uranium enrichment for as many years as possible," he said.
"If these demands — some of which Iran rejected before the war — are accepted, the war can end with at least one significant achievement. If the war ends with these nuclear capabilities still in Iran, it would constitute a major failure."

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 3

On Wednesday, Trump put the timeline for finishing US operations at two to three weeks.

The first source who has reviewed the US intelligence assessment said such a goal was unrealistic, given how much remains on the playing field for Iran to use.

“We can keep f**king them up, I don’t doubt it, but you’re out of your mind if you think this will be done in two weeks,” the source said.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 1

New from @alexward.bsky.social Fun fact, it's now illegal for the President to unilaterally remove the United States from NATO following the passage of a law in 2023 as part of the FY24 NDAA. Withdrawing from NATO now requires 2/3 of the Senate to approve. Who wrote that law? Marco Rubio

A tweet from Alex Ward reading:

JUST OUT: Trump has raised with SecState Rubio and other top aides the possibility of withdrawing from NATO if allies don’t help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. officials said.

He has discussed leaving NATO, or at least potentially finding ways to weaken the U.S. commitment.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Apr 1

George W Bush in front of a banner reading Mission Accomplished despite the mission being very much not accomplished

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Mar 26

Another day, another brutal poll for Trump's Iran war. Amongst the more damning findings is the MASSIVE intensity gap between near universal Dem strong opposition and very soft Republican support. Full poll here: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

A graphic showing polling results for the linked poll

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Mar 14

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Feb 28

If indeed the Ayatollah has been killed, this reporting by Reuters via @theguardian.com is worth noting.

In the run-up to the US and Israeli attacks, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessed that even if Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the operation, he would probably be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources told Reuters.

The assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, looked broadly at what could occur in Iran after a US intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic – now a pronounced objective for Washington.

The IRGC is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect Shia Muslim clerical rule in Iran.

The intelligence agency reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Feb 17

Key reporting from @axios.com. In essence, a former Trump official, and then executive at TikTok's largest US investor, called TikTok and made clear that if Trump won in November, the ban wouldn't happen. Then Trump became the most viewed content on TikTok. And won. And TikTok wasn't banned.

How it happened: The campaign was born in early 2024, according to sources familiar with the internal deliberations. Tony Sayegh, a Treasury and White House official in Trump's first term, became a key man in the TikTok triumph. Sayegh was on a ski vacation when he saw President Biden declare in March 2024 that he'd sign a TikTok ban if Congress passed one.

Sayegh — dubbed "TikTok's Trump Whisperer" by a Wall Street Journal article shortly after Trump's election — phoned a TikTok executive and suggested the very solution that eventually came to pass: If Trump won, he could sign an executive order thwarting the ban.
"Impossible," the TikTok official said. "Can't happen."
But it did, thanks to an aggressive political and legal strategy, paired with some lucky breaks. Some TikTok executives were skittish about going all-in with Trump, but Sayegh often told the company's D.C. team that Trump was the only person who could save TikTok in America. Chew warmed to the strategy.

The biggest U.S. investor in ByteDance, TikTok's China-based parent company, is Susquehanna International Group, where Sayegh is head of public affairs.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Jan 3

Well said by @nytimes.com

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Jan 3

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Nov 6

Just two political images captured by Getty in the past 24 hours...

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Jun 13

Crucial reporting from @axios.com about Trump’s green light for Israel’s strikes, including how his recent actions and remarks may have been a purposeful ruse to help Israel maintain surprise.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Nov 23

Seriously, this guy gets to serve in a senior position and it'll largely be treated as totally normal and fine by most of the DC establishment.

a screen cap of a tweet by Sebastian Gorka where he is holding an assault rifle and wearing a "Black Guns Matter" shirt

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Nov 22

It was the eyes that reminded me of her when I saw your pup. Here’s a better example from back in the day

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Nov 22

Wow! Looks so much like my pup Alabama who also suffers from anxiety and fear aggression in part to whatever happened to her in the two years before she found me and in part bc of an attack by a pit bull shortly after I adopted her. She was also jet black 10 years ago before going white.

Stephen Miles@spmiles42· Nov 18

What’s bringing you joy right now? We don’t have to let the darkness out there shut out all our light. In fact, making sure it doesn’t is one of our most important jobs. For me, I’m thinking back to this slice of heaven we spent some time visiting earlier this year in northern Scotland.