Stephen Jarvis

@stephenjarvis

Assistant Professor in Environmental Economics at LSE. Posting mostly about energy/enviro research.

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Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· 6d

"There’s a cumulative impact" This is probably the most defensible argument. But if not here, then where? Seems like it would be more productive to work to ensure some real local benefits rather than just flatly opposing, especially as the final decision is for the minister, not the council. (5/6)

Map from the FT showing the location of the three large solar projects proposed in this part of Kent near the site of the old Dungeness nuclear power plant.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· 6d

"roofs before rural" Rooftop solar is more expensive per kWh than large-scale projects. Regardless, the scale of deployment needed means both are needed, and fast. This is a great location with loads of spare grid capacity due to closure of a nearby nuclear power plant. (2/6)

Figure from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's "Distributed Solar Data" reports. Shows average costs of installing small/rooftop solar of around $3.5/W for residential and around $2-3/W for larger non-residential. Clear pattern of costs going down the larger the installation.

Figure from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's "Utility-Scale Solar Data" reports. Shows average costs of installing large utility-scale solar of around $1.5-2.5/W. Again a clear pattern of costs going down the larger the installation. Note this is just installed capital costs. Utility-scale projects will also achieve higher output (capacity factor) per W installed so costs per kWh will be even lower.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· 9d

Perhaps some kind of "swan bridge troll" situation where the rail line crosses the canal at Aldcliffe :)

Photo of Lancaster canal by Aldcliffe Road with railway bridge in far background.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· 19d

As summer 2026 sees temperature records tumble across Europe, at least we have 2027 to look forward to...

Bart simpson meme where he says "it's the hottest summer on record" and then homer corrects him saying "hottest summer on record, so far!"

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· 26d

Is there still a chance for "chaos with Ed Miliband"...

Guardian political live blog post following Andy Burnham's speech as new Labour leader, reads: "Burnham claims he has not yet made any decisions about who will be in his 'top team'

Earlier in the speech Burnham claimed he had not yet decided on key cabinet appointments. He said:

'Contrary to what you may keep on reading, I haven’t made any decisions yet about who will be in that top team, but I will soon. And when I have, you will see it reflects all parts of our party, all communities.'"

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· 26d

Persistent, terrible air quality from wildfire smoke is such a miserable, worrying new reality. I remember how bleak the California Bay Area was in 2020 - the red sky with street lights on at midday. I remember NYC in 2023. And now this morning I've woken up to find it has descended on DC.

Picture of street in Washington DC with hazy smoke-filled skies.

Screenshot of NYtimes wildfire smoke map showing a large plume extending down from Ontario and Michigan across Washington DC and New York.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Jul 10

As Europe bakes in another heatwave, the AC discourse rumbles on. To add some data to the debate, here's a map of residential AC uptake around the world from some forthcoming research. Given the temperatures now regularly being experienced, people in Europe really just don't have a lot of AC.

Map showing observed or predicted residential air conditioning adoption shares for countries and subnational regions around the world.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Jun 10

@andytattersall.bsky.social has been tracking this (blog with link to spreadsheet here: blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsoci...)

Chart showing declining share of UK universities active and/or posting on X. In Feb 2025 roughly 90% were still active, but by May 2026 it is now less than 40%.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· May 11

Given a lack of clear financial explanations we examine the political economy of the regulatory process. We find that utility firms decide strategically when to initiate new rate cases, such that regulated returns respond more quickly to increases in capital cost benchmarks, than to decreases. (4/6)

Plot showing the cumulative adjustment function from simulating the impact on the utility rate of return from a one percentage point shock to the underlying benchmark index. Here we compare approved rates of return and nominal 10-year US Treasuries as our benchmark rate. We plot the change in the nominal rate of return on equity over the subsequent six years. We find evidence of asymmetric adjustment. Rates of return adjust faster to a positive shock (solid line) than to a negative shock (dashed line). In the long run, both converge to a roughly 50% pass-through rate. The degree of asymmetric adjustment appears strongest in the rates of return that utilities propose, but is still present to a notable extent in the rates of return that regulators ultimately approve.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· May 11

Using data on four decades of utility rate cases in the US, we find a significant premium for regulated equity returns relative to several capital cost benchmarks. Identifying the "true" cost of capital is tricky and sensitive to assumptions, but in general we do see a trend of excess returns. (3/6)

The plot shows return on equity (RoE) gap, by different CAPM benchmarks (percentage points for approved RoE minus estimated benchmark cost of capital). Lines show gap increases from around zero (or negative in 1980s) to steadily positive from 1990s to 2020s, with premium ranging from +0.5 to +5 percentage points in certain instances.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· May 11

Utility companies recover their capital costs through regulator-approved rates of return. Today equity returns for utility shareholders sit at around ~10% in the US. There are persistent concerns these returns have been overly generous, especially for what is a relatively low risk industry. (2/6)

Figure plots the approved return on equity from our rate cases over the 40 year time period spanned by our sample. We also plot various risky and risk-free market rates for comparison. A couple of features jump out. The gap between the approved return on equity and other measures of the cost of capital has increased substantially over time. Consistent with a story where regulators adjust slowly, approved RoE has fallen slightly (in both real and nominal terms), but much less than other costs of capital. This is the key stylized fact that motivates our examination of the return on equity that utilities earn, the implications this may have for their incentives to invest in capital, and the costs they pass on to consumers.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· May 10

Some train stations in the US really are wonderful buildings. Wish there was a nationwide, high speed rail network connecting many more stations like these ones.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Apr 14

Beautiful day in dystopian London

Picture of parliament and the London eye from next to the Thames

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Apr 13

Went for a walk by Heysham nuclear power plant yesterday. Big piece of kit that’s been cranking out a whole lot of low-carbon power for 4-5 decades. Lots of offshore wind and a proposed 1GW battery project connecting in this area too. Impressive. 🔌💡

View standing on the sea wall by heysham nuclear power plant

View of heysham power plant from the beach

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Apr 1

Encountered several coffee places now where I’ve got a small iced americano and thought “hey this tastes great”. Barista has subsequently confirmed that yes their default is 4 shots ☕️☕️☕️☕️. Gonna be a day of high highs and low lows

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Mar 30

For household retail electricity prices, UK prices have risen a lot from below the European average to near the highest (just below Germany/Denmark). Now double the US average and well above California. Wholesale costs have played a part, but other network/policy costs have also risen a lot. (+11)

Average retail household electricity prices for select countries from 1990 to 2025. Can see UK used to be well below the EU average and Japan, similar to Korea and about 50% above the US. Has risen steadily since 2005 and now above EU average and Japan, and double US/Korea. Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026

Average retail household electricity prices for select countries in 2025. Can see UK one of the highest, above EU average but below Germany, Belgium and Denmark. Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026

Average retail household electricity prices for select European countries for 2019 and 2014 broken down by components (wholesale, network, taxes/fees/levies). Can see UK prices roughly double to just below Germany. Increase comes from doubling of both wholesale costs and other costs. Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Mar 30

Another reasonable question is if the market rules aren't fundamentally at fault, why are UK prices so high? First, UK wholesale prices are comparable to most European peers, although a bit more gas price sensitive. US prices have long been far lower. For much of the 2010s Japan's were higher. (+10)

Chart shows monthly average wholesale electricity prices for European countries from 2018 to 2026. Prices generally move closely together with a large common price spike in 2022. Spain/France somewhat lower in recent years due to fuel mix and policy interventions. UK generally middle of the pack and similar to Germany. Source: https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-and-costs/

Chart shows wholesale electricity prices from 2018-2026 for select countries around the world. European countries (France, Germany, EU average) move together in line with prior plot. Japan used to be highest in 2010s. US and Australia persistently have lowest prices. Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026/prices

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Mar 25

UK grid looking very clean today with prices down in the single digits. Strong wind and solar pushing fossil fuel generation pretty close to record lows. Expect this to become increasingly the norm as renewable and storage capacity keep increasing. 🔌💡

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Mar 24

Funny that this kind of thing is sufficiently mainstream that biofuel fraud was even a plotline in the latest season of The Lincoln Lawyer

Image of Micky Haller from The Lincoln Lawyer

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Mar 9

I’m hiring for a full-time one-year Research Assistant (“pre-doc”) position Come work at LSE doing research on energy markets and environmental economics. Great opportunity to build research skills ahead of applying to PhD programmes Deadline March 27th, apply here: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Jan 15

When choosing a company to manage vast quantities of sensitive UK healthcare data for the NHS I’m not sure “software that dominates” is the vibe I’d go for.

Ad for Palantir Technologies on the DC metro with the tagline “software that dominates”

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Jan 11

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is still (for now) churning out some super informative coverage in their Today in Energy series. We used this one on the infamous "duck curve" to discuss the impact of growing solar penetration over time www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

Chart shows electricity net load (demand net of renewables) in California over time. Can see net load getting lower and lower in the middle of the day as solar output increases over time.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Jan 11

Finished teaching a new course on energy markets and the clean energy transition last month. Was a blast and have lots of thoughts for next year. One takeaway is the value of going beyond academic journals/textbooks and incorporating media articles, podcasts, and video. Here's a few we covered... 🧵

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Dec 30

Spontaneous ride along the Kent coast to scope out taking a bunch of students on a trip to a wind farm. Obligatory end of trip fish n chips on the beach was top tier.

Bike propped against a wall with the sea behind

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Dec 8

It's grid connection reform queue day in the UK! 🔌💡 NESO (the grid operator) has published the results of their efforts to unclog the process for connecting new power supply to the grid. Over 700GW of proposed projects have been slimmed down to prioritise 130GW by 2030 and a further 150GW by 2035.

Bar chart showing capacity for different power supply sources in GB. Purple is existing. Blue is proposed that will be prioritised by 2030. Green is proposed that will be prioritised by 2035. Can see Offshore Wind and Solar are largest with reformed queue meeting entire requirement. Onshore Wind still falls short of planned target. Despite a significant haircut of proposed projects, Batteries still has capacity 2-3x the original planned requirement.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Nov 20

Literally one of the few things that seemed like it might happen and would be a good addition to the budget, ideally alongside some broader efforts to reform vehicle taxation. The courage of this government knows no bounds.

Transport secretary Heidi Alexander rules out 'national pay-per-mile' scheme for electric vehicles in budget

Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, has said the government will not be introducing “a national pay-per-mile scheme” for the drivers of electric vehicles (EVs).

Earlier this month the Daily Telegraph reported that a pay-per-mile scheme for EVs would be introduced in the budget. The paper said the scheme would come in from 2028 and that it would cost the average EV driver £250 a year.

At the time the government did not confirm the story. But it did not deny it either, and it issued a statement saying that it wanted a “fairer” scheme that would compensate for the fact that fuel duty, the main tax for drivers, is only paid by people with petrol or diesel cars.

Today Alexander ruled out a pay-per-mile scheme for EVs – at least on a national level.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Oct 7

We're hiring! Environmental econ AP position with a focus on biodiversity and related topics. Come join our great community here at LSE, with lots of people working in the enviro econ space across campus. Deadline in just under 3 weeks (Oct 26th) and details here: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Oct 1

New paper out in @pnas.org! We study the effect of air pollution on pets, finding increased vet admissions when air quality is worse. Tackling air pollution doesn't just matter for human health - it's important for animals too, including people's much loved cats and dogs www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Sep 18

Striking stats in @suttontrust.bsky.social report cited by this piece. Dominance of private school / Oxbridge in media, government and law is really quite damning. Big drop for current cabinet vs previous one though, and hilarious that Oxbridge is apparently not an asset in the Scottish parliament

Image shows rankings of top 10 professions with highest and lowers private school attendance. Average for UK population is 7%. Notably at the top end are armed forces (63%), senior judges (62%), shadow cabinet (52%), lords (52%), columnists (50%) etc. Notably at the bottom end are, footballers (4-5%), pop stars (10%), cabinet (7%), trade union leaders (12%), university vice chancellors (15%) etc.

Image shows rankings of top 10 professions with highest and lowers Oxbridge (Oxford or Cambridge University) attendance. Average for UK population is <1%. Notably at the top end are senior judges (75%), civil service permanent secretaries (66%), shadow cabinet (56%), columnists (43%), cabinet (39%), lords (36%) etc. Notably at the bottom end are, footballers (0%), cricketers (0%), olympians/paralympians (1-2%), scottish pariliament / northern ireland assembly (1%) etc.

Stephen Jarvis@stephenjarvis· Sep 16

Lots of wind farms operating close to their max output (capacity factors of 90+%). The ones that aren't are mostly further north and presumably being curtailed - still plenty to do to resolve that particular issue. Nice map with live data is from here: renewables-map.robinhawkes.com