August 1 5:30 PM PT: Active fires burning uncomfortably close to the Spokane (WA) metro area. Evacuations are underway for some city residents. Extreme / Critical fire conditions in place across much of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana today.

Latest USGS ShakeMap (Version 6) suggests a significant rupture just south of the city of Kumamoto, Japan. An even larger number of people (>700,000) are estimated to have been exposed to "Severe" or "Violent" shaking. USGS now suggests a ~50% chance of economic damage exceeding $10 billion.

Here is initial info from the USGS from today's earthquake in southern Japan in Kumamoto Prefecture. This will likely be a damaging and expensive event. FYI: The 2016 Kumamoto EQ sequence (M7.0 & M6.8) resulted in $53 billion in economic losses; of which $8 billion were insured (2026 USD).

July 26: Genevieve becomes the 9th global tropical cyclone in calendar year 2026 to undergo extreme rapid intensification (>50 knots in a 24-hour period). Of the 19 TCs to reach hurricane intensity this year, 11 have reached Category 3+ intensity. Eight (8) of those have been Category 4/5. (1/2)

Six years old. It was time for her to experience the Original NES. "Dad! Is this like Nintendo Switch? Where is Luigi? Is Jack Black in this game?" I've never felt older.

A little bit of both. The New Orleans NWS office has a good technical discussion about it this afternoon. I've highlighted the portion that gets into the heat / tropical storm dichotomy.

July 22: #Bertha has officially made landfall in Louisiana as a 45 mph tropical storm. I must admit, I cannot immediately recall a landfalling tropical cyclone that has such minimal rainfall associated with it. Bizarre!

July 21: Seasonal tally of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has finally surpassed... 1 (!). It is 1.23 as of today. This is the lowest ACE total YTD since 2009 (0.0). That was a season with El Niño conditions in place during the peak months (Aug/Sep/Oct).

Tropical Depression Two (soon-to-be Bertha) has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. While not currently expected to become a hurricane before landfall, it's worth paying attention. Many (not all) storms in the Gulf have shown an increasing tendency to overperform as water temperatures continue to warm.

July 16: Can confirm that heavy smoke has made its way to the northern Chicago suburbs this morning. Though not as bad (yet) like what areas further north into Wisconsin / Michigan are seeing -- and what the Northeast endured.

Bottom Line: No one should fall into a false sense of security just because there's been a relative lack of "big" natural catastrophe loss events in the past 18 months. The pendulum will ultimately swing back. Loss volatility is expected with climate change, but the extremes will grow wider. (6/6)

The report also includes a great analysis from @monahemmati.bsky.social that dives into ENSO / Tropical Cyclone relationships. In short, there's a lot of nuance and sub-ENSO phase variability that has real implications on not just storm frequency, but storm directionality for landfall risk. (5/n)

While not a massive physical damage loss driver, we must recognize the growing implications of extreme heat. Europe has already experienced multiple very deadly heatwaves in 2026. How we think of temperature related risks must expand to include societal / utility / policy considerations. (4/n)

US severe convective storms (SCS) drove ~57% of global insured losses. The $26 billion, while significant, was actually notably lower than the record-breaking recent 5-year H1 average of $38 billion. A northerly shift of SCS activity away from Texas likely contributed to the lower loss. (2/n)

Update (July 5): Super Typhoon #Bavi continues to head towards the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam. The island of Rota appears to be in Bavi's direct path. This is a very dangerous Category 5-equivalent storm with an estimated 180 mph winds. JTWC puts the minimum pressure at 901 millibars.

Update: #Bavi has undergone explosive rapid intensification. In just 36 hours it has strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm to a 160 mph Category 5-equivalent super typhoon. This is already the second Cat 5 in the Western Pacific basin in 2026. Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands: Prepare now.

#Bavi quickly organizing and, per JTWC, expected to become a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon. The Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and elsewhere in Micronesia are still recovering from April's Typhoon Sinlaku -- which affected the region as a Category 4. The storm caused >$1.5 billion in damage.

Major expected insurance claim due to damage at a South Dakota wind farm following >100 mph straight-line wind gust(s). This claim is a big loss for the renewable energy market. It also opens up questions on weather-related loss costs if highly exposed data centers are impacted in the future.

This is ridiculous. It is brutally hot here in the northern Chicago suburbs today...

June 28 Update: Still burning. A third consecutive "Extreme" fire weather forecast for much of the Four Corners region. We've sadly seen multiple firefighter fatalities this weekend, in addition to more property damage. There were real concerns about the Western US fire season; it's still only June.

June 27 PM: Several large wildfires burning across the US West (UT, CO, AZ, NM) as extreme fire weather conditions persist. This is a consequence of record low previous winter snowpack, prolonged drought, and abundant vegetation ripe for fast spread.

Much talk about a strong El Niño and implications for the Atlantic hurricane season. Do not sleep on the Western Pacific. YTD activity already well above normal. Storms tracking further northeast follow a "classic" El Niño pattern may bring more risk to Japan & the Korean Peninsula this season.

The scale of devastation in Venezuela continues to unfold. Sadly, it is likely that the loss of life will notably increase in the coming days. The World Bank cites the country's GDP at ~$120 billion. If USGS PAGER estimates are close, damage costs could equal a notable percentage of the economy.

Hosted a London Climate Week event today, and the irony is not lost on anyone that the UK reached its hottest June temperature on record. It feels quite tropical, and the UK has very few homes with air conditioning. As someone who comes to London a lot... this heat is quite shocking.

The specific concentration of tornadic activity in Illinois and Indiana during June has been... unusual. This past weekend's latest twisters will officially push 2026 into the record book for highest confirmed number of annual tornadoes on record in Illinois (since 1950).

Per NOAA's Atlas 14 Point Precipitation Analysis: This almost certainly translates to at least a "1-in-1,000" return period (RP) rainfall event for this part of Louisiana. Remarkable event. Also, a reminder that a rainfall RP does not always mean the same RP from a flood perspective.

Incredible rainfall "bullseye" in Louisiana from the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur plus an influx of moisture interacting with a frontal boundary in the Southeast. Some areas have now recorded more than 30 inches of rain in the past 72 hours; with much of it in the past 24 hours.

Early season monsoon stats in India showing rainfall already ~40% below normal. With El Niño strengthening, this is likely to bring a notable impact to crop yields as forecasts suggest the country's weakest monsoon in a decade. India is among the world's biggest producers of rice, sugar, and cotton.

June 17 8am CT: Powerful line of storms exiting Iowa and headed into Illinois. Significant straight-line winds already recorded, and this line (derecho?) will intensify in the coming hours. Strong tornadoes, intense straight-line winds, and large hail all possible.

The NHC continues to monitor "Potential Tropical Cyclone One" as it meanders towards the western Gulf. A likely rainmaker, but not extreme. Good reminder, however, that a weak "wind" storm can still drive flooding concerns. Also, NFIP (flood insurance) take-up remains quite low beyond the coast.