Ryan Blake

@swingsandtakes

Baseball Writer

168 Siguiendo1208 Seguidores1561 Publicaciones

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Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 17d

This turned out to be pretty small thankfully.

The aftermath of a fire in Peaceful Valley

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 17d

Helicopter landing in the backyard

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 17d

Wildfire at Peaceful Valley in Spokane, WA

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 17d

Closing in on the point where actual win rate is just as good at knowing what's next as pythag and BaseRuns.

A plot showing how win rate compares to win estimators in their ability to predict rest of season results by the point in the season.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 17d

The last time the Mariners were in third, I noted they likely hadn't played their worst yet. And yup, this mostly holds up for thinking about RoS. It wouldn't be weird for them to finish in the 86-90 win bucket they're aiming for. It'd be less weird for them to land in the 78-82 win bucket.

The Mariners 2025 and 2026 rolling 25-game win rates.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 19d

Magallanes’ dismissal hit especially hard for Dom Canzone, who credited Magallanes for much of his breakthrough over the past year.

“Just brutal,” Canzone said. “He was the guy that I was with pretty much all the time.”

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 19d

Dipoto even acknowledged that he wasn’t sure the dismissal of Magallanes was ultimately the right move — and manager Dan Wilson did try to change Dipoto’s mind — but the Mariners’ front office ultimately concluded it was the best move right now to rattle the cage, so to speak, of this offensive group.

Last week, the Mariners came out of the All-Star break with one of their most discouraging performances of the season in a 7-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants, one of the worst teams in the majors this season.

That game, Dipoto said, sparked debate in the front office about short-term measures to fix the offense. The group’s conclusion was to shake up the hitting group’s coaching staff.

“I’m not trying to scapegoat Bobby,” Dipoto said. “We had internal discussion on what could we do that wouldn’t create absolute disarray, that could turn some dials with a team that really needs a dial (turned). We’re not playing well, and there are consequences for not playing well. We have to figure out how to get better, and this is, I hope, a move that pushes us in that direction.”

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 21d

One last plot for the weekend, previewing The Battle of the Century

A plot showing the 30-game rolling average for the Mariners and Rangers. They're both roughly .500 teams.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 21d

Narrowing the roll to 1000 plate appearances and we can see this is the worst stretch of the decade for the Mariners at the plate.

A plot showing the Mariners rolling wOBA over 1000 plate appearances.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 21d

Mariners wOBA in rolling half seasons

A plot showing the Mariners rolling wOBA in 3000 plate appearance chunks since 2022.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 28d

2026 Tigers, actual wins vs pythag wins

A plot showing the Tigers actual wins vs pythag wins. They slumped by both metrics around game 50, but have been scoring more runs than their opponents lately despite not winning games.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 28d

2026 Phillies, actual wins vs pythag wins

A plot showing the Phillies actual vs pythag wins. They've well outperformed their pythag record over the last 70 games.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 28d

2026 Astros, actual wins vs pythag wins

A plot showing the Houston Astros record relative to .500, both actual wins and pythag wins. They've started winning more lately, but they're also being outscored by their opponents.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 29d

Separately, the district is moving forward with redesigning the path from the light rail station into the stadium. Next step is looking for artists.

A rendering of a possible design for the snail tunnel.

A rendering for a possible design above the snail tunnel.

A rendering of a possible design for Royal Brougham Way.

A high-level project timeline. Permit submission is anticipated in September.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· 29d

The Mariners have spent about $160M on T-Mobile Park since the last Long-Term Needs Assessment was completed four years ago. Here's the breakdown:

A table showing the Mariners spending on their stadium over the last four years. They have budgeted for $160 million in spending and have spent $135 million; their long-terms needs assessment recommended spending $101 million.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jul 11

And a plot

A rolling plot showing Julio and Cal's contributions versus the Mariners over 40 game stretchers in 2025 and 2026. In 2025, Julio and Cal were great and everyone else was just OK. This year, everyone is just OK.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 28

Mariners playoff seasons, games above .500

A plot showing the Mariners games above .500 in their playoff seasons.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 28

Defending Dan Wilson's bullpen management

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 13

Been working on replicating Savant's weighted GSv2 tool. Not quite a Skenes-ian ascent, but still damn impressive. Misiorowski now sixth in the majors.

A plot showing weighted rolling Game Score

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 13

Best starting pitcher performances by Game Score (v2) since 2000

A list of the 10 best Game Scores since 2000. Jacob Misiorwoski's 107 mark is tied for fourth with Randy Johnson. The list also includes Scherzer, Kershaw, Cain, Johnson, Misiorowksi, Nomo, Hernández, Scherzer, Cole, and Verlander.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 12

Outfield run value leaderboard for June

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 12

Choose your fighter situation

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 6

Julio made his first five-star play of the year yesterday, though not in the way you'd expect.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 6

Sweet

An image showing FanGraphs new pitcher game cards

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 4

If you're wondering about Detmers ERA (4.63) versus his FIP (2.98)

A table showing OAA for pitchers, sorted in reverse. Detmers has -5 OAA from the defense, which is bottom five in the majors.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 4

Oh good, from the Cubs broadcast it wasn't clear if he'd thrown his helmet or dematerialized

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 3

The Rays have lost 8 of 10, allowing 7.4 runs per game.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 3

This RF-directional wind seems to come around every few years. Just super charged right now.

A park factor chart for T-Mobile Park showing lefty fly balls.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 2

Oh I kinda like this. Cumulative wRAA (essentially, counting wOBA) split by handedness.

A plot showing cumulative wRAA, split by handedness.

Ryan Blake@swingsandtakes· Jun 2

Mariners 15-game rolling wOBA, split by handedness.