t a l
@talevy
Seattleite in Los Angeles I work in soccer data and also sometimes do local (LA) politics he/him
Nothing is funnier to me than the CD13 map where the only place socialist incumbent Hugo Soto-Martinez didn't break 55% is the scientology precinct (and ironically also his home precinct, he lives in an apartment building on the north side)
Recorder just added about 75k more ballots to the estimated outstanding count. Raman now projected to beat Pratt by 3.2 points, and be exactly 6% behind Bass 2026-warroom.talevy.soccer
Lastly, in deep-blue Congressional District 37, Democrat Samantha Mota running against Sydney Kamlager Dove is on track to lock out Republican Baltazar Fedaliza. Kamlager-Dove should win the runoff easily, but this is notable because Mota raised a grand total of $449, according to the FEC
With the latest release from the RRCC office saying that there are 688180 county votes outstanding, my perfectly-proportional estimate shows 259000 remaining city votes – enough for Raman to take second with today's proportions (likely).
Using the lower bound of that estimate and keeping today's proportions exactly (basically a fairly conservative estimate), Raman will edge out Pratt by a hair. Kalshi is up on Raman to 78%, and I tend to agree.
I expect there to be at least 20% of ballots still left unreleased, potentially a lot more, and every election should move at least 5 points to the left. That's why Kalshi is now favorable on Raman to advance – and I agree
#NewProfilePic I'm showing support for @claireforqueens.bsky.social for NY-7 congresswoman by updating my profile pic with the Claire for Congress gradient! Change your profile pic with the link below www.remove.bg/t/change-bac...
I understand why you might have thought that but I think you forgot that this is what the rule actually said
Here at ACFC vs Utah where angel city is showcasing Gluey, a mascot representing Nyx brand face glue?
Here at LA's grand park with 36k of my closest neighbors and the only federal senator worth a damn
