The Cruncher
@tcau
Predictions and analysis for League, AFL and Netball (and sometimes elections). #rstats, data and programming enthusiast tcau.dev (website) and thecruncherau.substack.com (blog)
I'm pleased to announce that my Ladder Predictor tool is now live for Women's NRL. With the season starting tonight, it's never been a better time to get your predictions done. Try it out at tcau.dev/nrlw-predictor
Ran the optimizer for the first time this NRL season: - Panthers can finish as low as 16th (as below) - Dragons can finish as high as 3rd - Every other team can finish anywhere
With the Dragons' win against the Broncos, the 2026 NRL Circle of Parity is complete
🚨 Least Surprising NRL Results Update: The Panthers' unsurprising Magic Round win slides into 8th place on the leaderboard
NEW ARTICLE: Is the 2026 NRL season really "unpredictable"? I use a variety of criteria to investigate whether this season truly has been unpredictable.
NRL Match Path Update - Round 6 The longest cycle is up to 13 teams long, and the longest chain up to 17.
NEW: AFL Team Icons (home and away/clash) are now available on Predictor and throughout the website
NEW: NRL Team Icons (home and away) are now available on Predictor and throughout the website
AFL Match Path Update - Round 2 No cycles yet, but the longest path is up to 10 teams long: Suns-Cats-Freo-Dees-Saints-Giants-Hawks-Swans-Carlton-Richmond
NRL Match Chain Update - Round 3 We have our first mini circle of parity: Broncos-Storm-Eels, and the longest chain is 6 teams long: Warriors-Roosters-Rabbitohs-Dolphins-Sharks-Titans
If only Flanno had told his players this before the match, could've really helped out #NRLEelsDragons
37% of losing NRL teams from 2023-2026 have had more possessions than their opposition. None have so far in 2026.
Expected Dally M votes from #NRLBulldogsCowboys: Once again, the model is very uncertain of who will receive votes here - even more so than the first match!
If the 2026 NRL Dally M Medal were awarded now, Kalyn Ponga would be the favourite per my model's estimates
Expected Dally M votes from #NRLKnightsCowboys: Knights players dominate, but not any obvious selections for stand out players; judges might have a tricky time here
NEW FOR 2026: NRL Tackle Ratings Over the past 3 seasons, Haas leads the way. Here's the top 20 (min 20 games):
Super excited to announce a project I've been working on for a little while now: a ladder predictor that's actually fun to use Only NRL 2026 is available for now, but planning on adding more leagues soon Try it at tcau.dev/league/m/pre...
Here's the updated match network, with the Circle of Parity from above highlighted in red