I'm seeing some strong thunderstorms south and east of the Annapolis valley. There's lots of lightning and heavy downpours in that area, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's some hail too. The storms are slowly moving southeast. #NSStorm

Here's a good view of what's happening. There's well-defined spin at 500 mbar just north of the Bahamas, which is what you can see in the satellite loop. However, the low-level spin is weak and displaced well to the west, near the Florida coast. A system this decoupled isn't going to intensify fast.

So, what did come to pass? Well, the models did well in picking up *something*, and they got the location and timing generally correct. However, it does not look like this system is about to try becoming a tropical cyclone: there's some mid-level spin, but no low-level circulation centre.

There we go, looks like our #ElNino coupled with #ClimateChange resulted in the world setting a new all-time ocean temperature record on August 6th. Given that ocean temperatures keep rising through the rest of August, I get the hunch that today's record won't last long.

The #ElNino is coming on strong in the East Pacific, with an area of anomalies over 6C developing west of the Galapagos Islands. I expect these warm anomalies to continue and intensify through November as El Nino reaches its peak intensity.

The top 3 global models are starting to hint at some possible tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic by late next week. From what I can tell, the spark for this system would be of non-tropical origins. The GFS is most aggressive, the CMC least, and the Euro in the middle. Will watch closely.

Just a reminder, folks: always verify date and time a #weather model was initialized. The run shown was initialized on July 24th at 12Z. It's now July 28th. See a result that seems outlandish? Check if other models agree. In this case, the Euro and CMC did not support the extreme temps of the GFS.

The subsurface water temperature anomalies associated with this #ElNino are getting ridiculous. So much so that @cyclonicwx.bsky.social had to extend the temperature anomalies scale from 6C to 9C. Let's hope that another y-axis extension isn't required...

Although Tropical Depression Two is disorganized and will stay in the Gulf of Mexico, not coming close to Canada, it will have impacts in the Maritime Provinces. A cold front is going to tap into moisture from the cyclone and channel it northeast, resulting in an atmospheric river mid-week. #NSStorm

The biggest challenge Tropical Depression 2 will face in the short-term is a lack of structure. The low level centre is located somewhere around 28N, 85W, but the most intense convection is located in a pocket to the NE and a band around the south side. This isn't conducive to rapid intensification.

We now have tropical depression two over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. While I don't expect this system to become very strong in terms of wind (likely peaking around 70-80 km/h), I do think it'll be a significant rainmaker.

Widespread temperatures in the low 30s across #NovaScotia today, with some places even pushing into the mid-30s. With dew points running in the low 20s, the humidex is in the low to mid 40s. I don't know if the high temp in #Halifax of 35.4C is an all-time record but it must be pretty close. #NSwx

Interested in attending a conference about hydrogen? My PI, Mita Dasog, is helping organize one in Halifax in 2027. www.linkedin.com/posts/mita-d...

Happy #CanadaDay! Here's to 159 years of not being the 51st state, and many more to come.

We got a little upper-level low south of Bermuda, with some pulsing, light convection. These can occasionally develop into subtropical cyclones, but this one probably won't: it's large and surrounded by dry air, which would make any development very slow, and it probably will run out of time.

Caught up with Canoe Kayak Nova Scotia for their Canoe the Canal, Stage 2, a trip down the Shubenacadie River from Oakfield Provincial Park to Brickyard Park. Weather was perfect and there was just enough water for the boats to get over the riffles. #canoeing #kayaking #paddleboarding

Here's one!

Another westerly wind burst is likely to occur over the Nino 3.4 regions in the next few days, this is likely to help further strengthen the El Nino after its intensification took a pause over the past few days. #ElNino

For all practical purposes, it's high summer out there, with lots of inland locations pushing 30C. I think we may yet squeeze another degree or two out of some stations before temps start to fall again in the evening. #NSwx #PEwx #NBwx

A recent LinkedIn post by my PI, Dr. Mita Dasog. It's as if the world is stuck in a fight between selfish, greedy, powerful (and usually old and male) people who don't care about anything other than lining their pockets, and those who genuinely want to make a positive difference in the world.

Cloud tops over Halifax are pushing -54C, that's right to the tropopause according to the radiosonde at Yarmouth.

I swear this satellite loop is in MAY, not JANUARY. Because a nor'easter passing just south of Nova Scotia while undergoing bombogenesis and a cold front down to the Yucatan isn't something I would expect to see at this time of year. #NSStorm #NBStorm #PEStorm #NLStorm

That Sunday system looks pretty impressive on the CMC and Euro: a Miller-A nor'easter undergoing full-on bombogenesis. If this were late Nov through late March, I wouldn't think much of it, but this can't be common in early May.

This is pretty much the textbook Miller A storm. *Deep trough over Ontario/Quebec *Strong Greenland block *Cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast *Rapid intensification off the US coast *Fully mature storm near the Canadian Maritimes

Here are the ensemble plots for the system on Sunday afternoon/evening. This is a very strong signal for a significant #noreaster at this time-range. Obviously, exact track and intensity won't be known for probably another day or two. #NSStorm #NLStorm #PEStorm

Here's the same system as seen on the AI GFS and Euro. These models don't have the same resolution as the conventional ones but they're both showing a strong system fairly close to Nova Scotia on Sunday evening. #NSStorm #NLStorm #PEStorm

A hurricane-force #noreaster off the coast of Nova Scotia... in May? It sounds a bit absurd, but, according to the weather models, there's a fair chance of this on Sun. If this were winter, it could be a significant snowstorm, but given it's May, cold rain is more likely. #NSStorm #NLStorm #PEStorm

Well, looks I'm really digging into this project, eh?

The Nino 3.4 areas have warmed rapidly over the past few days, continuing a steady warming trend. While an anomaly of 0.65C is sufficient for a weak El Nino, the subsurface shows that there's much more warm water on the way to push it into strong to super territory.

I started playing in March 2019, on the Vigilant Flame update, and have accumulated about 1,100 hours since then. It's the update that added the Hushed River Valley, which is still my favourite in-game region.