Explained on @AJEnglish that as long as the parties seek to negotiate while simultaneously shaping the diplomatic landscape through military means, then talks will not succeed. Iran will likely seek to impose such a high cost on the US that Trump won't be tempted to return to military action again.

Told @AJEnglish that Iran is unlikely to accept Qatar's 10-day ceasefire proposal. Tehran will likely see it as an effort to calm energy markets, only for the US to restart attacks in 10 days. And then repeat this cycle in another month or so.

Seems like Trump just made a pitch for the Iranian toll system. :) Because the Iranians were going to charge $1mn per ship, which would amount to 1-2% of the value of the cargo of an oil tanker. But Trump is going to charge 20%! :)

There is a workable compromise on the Strait; the parties were close to reaching it a few days ago. I don't see military action changing facts on the ground in a manner that would enable either the US or Iran to forgo a compromise and force its preference on the other.

This was Reza Pahlavi's dream for Iran...

Congressman @RoKhanna is fuming after Israeli settlers - with support from the Israeli military - detained & harassed him for 90 minutes. He says that Israel's total impunity - thanks to America's blank check to Israel - has created "a toxic culture of oppression."

There are many reasons why another war with Iran would be foolish. This is one of them: Look at the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve today compared to February 2026. This is what Trump used to keep gas prices low despite the oil shock. It won't be able to do so easily again.

For 90% of the game, Haaland just lurks around. He hardly even pays attention to the ball. But then - out of a sudden - at the exact right moment, he awakens, scores a historic goal, and immediately goes back to lurking around. He cannot be replicated.

I have a new piece in FP today on the regional order emerging from the US’s war with Iran, in which I argue a point that may surprise some folks. Since it is behind a firewall, I have restated the argument and posted key passages on my Substack. tritaparsi.substack.com/p/the-middle...

If you were surprised that Hillary Clinton penned an oped in @FT declaring her support for Trump's Gaza plan - that de facto allows Israel to annex most of the territory - then you haven't been paying attention for the past 25 years.

At least the Israelis do not have much doubt about what the Lebanese-Israeli agreement means. This is what the anchor on Ch 13 said: "It seems we're leading Lebanon to a civil war. Maybe it's not so bad for us, let the Lebanese government fight Hezbollah... That's been the goal from the start."

This is quite astounding. The Prime Minister of Qatar and the American Vice President are not just negotiating the deal, but they are actively typing it into the laptop. They are doing the legwork, not just the decision-making.

This is historic! Not because US and Iranian diplomats haven't met face to face before. Or that they haven't been on camera before (they were regularly during the JCPOA talks) But never at the Vice President level! You can see both Aragchi and JD Vance in this clip.

JD Vance keeps on emphasizing how US and Israeli interests are diverging. He points out that many in Israel would like to see Iran turn into the next Libya. And then he asks: "Is Iran turning into a Persian Libya good for the United States? Absolutely not!"

Of course, Trump will put massive sanctions relief on the table to get nuclear concessions - that's how sanctions are supposed to work. They are not leverage if they are used as a permanent punishment, even though that is what some hoped they would become...

CNN asked me if the Trump-Israel clash on Lebanon showed the limits of US influence on Israel, but I argued that it shows the beginning of it...

Wow! Make no mistake: JD Vance is on a campaign to put Israel in its place. Here, he crucially reduces Israel's standing as a partner to the same level as the UK and France. That is, it is NOT a special relationship.

I am more in favor of Trump's MOU than Steve Bannon is :) Steve wants to keep the sanctions, believing they'll bring down the theocracy. I oppose sanctions and believe political change in Iran - from the inside - is more likely if the economy and populace can breathe.

Holy smokes!! 🔥🔥🔥 JD Vance to Israel opposing the MOU "My response to them would be: What is your exact proposal? You’re a country of 9 million people. You can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have."

Trump appears to return to the non-zero enrichment position. This was his original position. Then Israel convinced him to adopt zero enrichment, which caused the first war. To get the deal, he is now returning to the original position. He should never have abandoned it.

Told @chrislhayes that after 20 years of hearing from the hawks that the only solution is to go to war, we have now tried it, and it is absolutely clear that it was a failure. At the same time, Trump is right in striking a deal that ENDS the war.

Appears Trump is not only pushing back against Israel, but delegitimizing Israel's modus operandi, by, for instance, criticizing Israel's disproportionate use of force or attacking the premise of Israel's arguments on Iran (eg saying Iran is rational rather than "mad mullahs")

Beyond disgraceful! The Iranian national soccer team, which will play New Zealand tomorrow in LA, arrived at their hotel only to see a handful of Iranian Monarchists protesting their presence and accusing them of being terrorists. (!??!)

Trump needs a deal! This war has been a disaster for his standing, including with young republicans. Though he was +9pt over Kamala in 2024, he is now facing a foreign policy net approval of -40pt And with young GOP on foreign policy, he is -14pt on the Iran War!

These two, almost simultaneous, tweets should be read together in order to better understand what is going on...

My white Wolf Fenrir crashed my CNN interview, trying to steal the spotlight...

What does it say about you if you look at this infant and see a threat that must be eliminated? And what does it say about the values of the countries that defend and enable these murders? This is the 7-month-old Palestinian baby shot & killed by an Israeli soldier yesterday.

Behold Norway's World Cup team photo. Paying homage to their Viking past, something neither Swedes nor Danes tend to feel comfortable doing. I wasn't planning to root for them, but I sure as heck will do now! (up to a point, of course...)

BREAKING! Most Americans say the Iran war is bad for America. Even a plurality of Republicans (33%) agree the war with Iran has been more negative than positive...

Israel is tanking globally! Across the 36 countries, a median of 67% of adults have an unfavorable view of Israel, while 25% have a favorable view. In Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain, around half of adults or more say they have a very unfavorable view of the country.