umsonst

@umsonst

Earth-System Nerd who follows from a mechanistic observational perspective the extinction level event we are just now triggering. Earth is unfortunately not a sluggish system changing slowly but a highly non-linear system which can change fast...

42 Siguiendo1884 Seguidores13.284 Publicaciones

X X X YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube YouTube Bluesky

¿Es tu perfil?Reclámalo y umsonst.dirty.social es tuyo.Reclamar perfil

umsonst@umsonst· 28d

What a tropical moisture transport to behold... Wonder when the first time tropical moisture levels will reach the Arctic... earth.nullschool.net#current/wind... #earth #earth

umsonst@umsonst· 28d

Extreme flooding in China does not stop - just one example of many Xiahe County in Gansu Province "On the evening of July 13, Xiahe County in Gansu Province was suddenly hit by torrential rain, and the water level in the urban area rose by 4 meters, flooding the streets." x.com/yangyubin199...

umsonst@umsonst· 28d

One graph to rule them all... We get now a massive feedback between ocean heating at the surface triggering a massive cloud feedback feeding back on ocean heat uptake decoupling from deeper layers... Short: we overheat the oceans, if we continue that's it! Super El Nino who cares #climate #earth

umsonst@umsonst· 29d

And suddenly the tropical oceans went caboom Fun fact: this signal had been mainly being caused by weaker winds over the tropical oceans because of reduced SST gradients over the tropical oceans and a weaker Walker cell It's a system controlled by circulation systems #climate #earth

umsonst@umsonst· 29d

"The results indicate a close coupling between cloud-cover changes, radiative fluxes, and SST evolution on the recent interdecadal time scale" Regional Evolution of the Meteosat Solar and Infrared Spectra (2005–2024) Linked to Cloud Cover and Ocean Surface www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/17... #clouds

If such warming patterns would persist we could expect a substantial cloud feedback as eastern ocean regions could start to warm now faster than the warmer western parts.

Short wave signal over time - how much shortwave is reflected back to space by clouds or ice surfaces.

Also a nice example of how variably Earths energy imbalance is.

After the above drop in 2024 it went up again indicating a accelerating trend.

umsonst@umsonst· 29d

Highly interesting the spatial patterns of this El Nino discharging heat into the Northern Hemisphere or the Southern Hemisphere All depends on the circulation patterns at a given time. #climate #earth #ElNino

Shows surface winds over the tropical Pacific - quite strong northward trajectory

Currently, we have intense convective centers in the east that pump massive amounts of upper level heat into the southern Hemisphere, disturbing there the circulation.

At other times the configuration changes and mass and heat is pumped into the Northern Hemisphere. Like a peaking behavior, sometimes disturbing mid-latitude flows in the NH and then again into the SH...

And all these peaks can then trigger/support e.g. a massive polar heatwave, sudden sea ice losses at both poles or astonishing heatwaves, droughts or floods all via the intensification of weather extremes which control all fast feedback's...

This shows nicely how intense the upper tropospheric flows are...

umsonst@umsonst· 29d

Outgoing longwave radiation measurements - the far IR had not been of a high quality New measurements show some 2.7 and 2.8W/m2 difference with Ceres data - all sky, and clear sky. The tables on the specifics of the satellite data is interesting thou #climate #earth

umsonst@umsonst· 29d

Heatwave area is increasing over most of the globe... #Climate #earth "The spatial extent of heat waves has changed over the past four decades" www.nature.com/articles/s43...

The spatial extent of an extreme heat event influences the total exposure of people and natural systems to heat-related stresses, straining water, energy, and emergency management resources. Here, we quantify how the contiguous area of individual heat wave events varies across heat wave types, time of year, and in response to observed climate change within the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Dataset. Across the mid-high latitudes, cold season heat waves cover areas that are 1.25 to 3 times larger than warm season events, and daytime heat waves impact 1.25 to 2 times the area of nighttime heat waves. The reverse relationship is found throughout tropical regions. Average heat wave size, regardless of type or season, has increased across most land in recent years, often by 1.5 to 2 times in the mid-latitudes. The contiguous spatial extent of dry soil anomalies and lower tropospheric subsidence events have also increased in some locations, potentially contributing to the increases in heat wave size.

umsonst@umsonst· Jul 10

Here the SST perspective of the observed changes:

umsonst@umsonst· Jul 10

The cloud feedback over warmer oceans seems to be non-linear and could have started in a step wise change in the early 90s driven by higher SSTs... #climate #earth

Low clouds significantly influence Earth’s radiation budget, but their climate feedback remains highly uncertain due to complex interactions with meteorological conditions across spatial and temporal scales. The cloud controlling factor framework is widely used to link meteorological variables with cloud properties. However, most studies assume a static, linear relationship, potentially obscuring the timescale-dependent responses. In this study, we apply the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method to ISCCP-H cloud observations and ERA5 data (1987–2016) to isolate low cloud amount across multiple intrinsic timescales and trends over global land and ocean. The trends show a nonlinear increase in stratocumulus (Sc) and a significant nonlinear decline in cumulus (Cu), while stratus (St) exhibits weaker trends.

We categorize timescales short (≤1 year) for annual variations, medium (1–8 years) for interannual variability such as ENSO, and long (>8 years) for decadal and longer-term climate changes. It is found that Sc and Cu over land are primarily influenced by near-surface heating, while sea surface temperature and surface sensible heat flux (SHF) dominate over ocean at short timescales. SHF becomes dominant over land at medium timescales, largely reflecting ENSO-related induced surface anomalies. At long timescales, atmospheric stability and wind speed influence continental clouds, while SHF remains dominant over ocean. Trend components reveal that Sc and Cu are most sensitive to temperature changes, whereas St responds to mid-level humidity over ocean and SHF over land. These findings underscore the importance of timescale-dependent cloud–meteorology relationships to improve cloud parameterizations and reduce climate projection uncertainties. Overall, our results demonstrate that low cloud variability and trends cannot be explained by a single linear mechanism but instead arise from distinct meteorological controls that change across timescales, cloud types, and surface regimes.

Li, Y.; Ge, J.; Hu, Y.; Xu, Z.; Du, J.; Mu, Q. Global Low Clouds Evolution and Their Meteorological Drivers Across Multiple Timescales. Remote Sens. 2025, 17, 4045. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17244045

umsonst@umsonst· Jul 8

We have now so many non-linearities popping up Just straight-forward feedback cascades of dynamical systems that operate via thresholds and sudden state shift The system just undergoes a fundamental reorganization Extinction level event incoming fast and heavy - models can not see it...

umsonst@umsonst· Jul 7

In addition with this graph and OLR it means we are fucked! The oceans stay at record temperatures covering 71% of the surface while OLR made a large drop again is bad, really bad...

umsonst@umsonst· Jul 7

The astonishing peak in absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) end of 2023 had been repeated two times since then... It's simple we trigger now a massive cloud feedback over warmer oceans and drying out continents and both are interrelated. #climate #earth

Marine heatwaves support drought conditions and support massive rainfall extremes which then lead to a shift towards declining ratios of continental stored water as more flows back into the oceans again.

For these fluctuations in ASR sea surface temperature (SSTs) anomalies play a role and SST patterns which both can reduce cloud cover in addition to the ENSO cycle - El Ninos and La Ninas cycles and transitions that have a large influence on cloud cover. It's one of the reasons that absorbed shortwave radiation spikes all the time and then drops again. Only that we have now reached an exceptional levels...

Additionally, we have now record Earth's energy imbalance values with the oceans heat uptake likely further accelerating the coming years...

What is additionally worrying that outgoing longwave radiation went down again the last years, while surface temperatures did not decline that much. Could be another indication of a weakening Planck Feedback which we did not see coming - oops!

The graphs are from this James Hansen post:

https://lnkd.in/eWkQfxKc

Further, interesting how aerosol forcing went up again the last years while the cloud feedback accelerated...

To understand what causes what it's important to look at the patterns that evolve...

umsonst@umsonst· Jul 6

@climatenews.bsky.social‬ Sorry did a mistake - cloud fraction changes affecting OLR largely canceled each other out with a diminishing role of clouds on OLR From the mid and low‐thin [L_tn] cloud groups to the semi‐clear [S‐Clr] cloud group Driving factor higher SSTs. #climate #Earth

Plain Language Summary

We used 22 years of satellite observations (2003–2024) to analyze how changes in cloud types have affected the Earth's outgoing shortwave radiation (OSR) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) changes between the first and last 10 years (2003–2012 vs. 2015–2024). Our specialized statistical method separates the effects of changes in cloud type occurrence from changes within the cloud-types themselves. Two main findings pertain to OSR. First, small changes within the cloud types themselves (like how much cloudiness occurs in a region or how bright the clouds are) consistently lead to a slight decrease in reflected sunlight. Each decrease is small, but together they make a meaningful effect. Second, large shifts in how often certain clouds occur have a much larger, but often canceling, impact. For example, fewer “low and thin” clouds and more “semi-clear” clouds largely balance each other out. As a result, a decrease in mid-level thick clouds emerges as a primary cause of OSR reduction. For OLR, the shift from “low and thin” to “semi-clear” clouds is by far the most important factor, producing large—but oppositely signed contributions. This cloud changes impacting outgoing radiation are generally consistent with a response to warmer temperatures.

How higher SSTs affect cloud types

From the mid and low‐thin [L_tn] cloud groups to the semi‐clear [S‐Clr] cloud group

We also examined whether a significant difference in surface temperature exists between the regions where the L_tn and S‐Clr groups occur, since surface temperature is an important factor controlling outgoing LW radiation. Focusing on tropical oceans between 28°S and 28°N, we compared the SST distribution for all months and grid cells after weighting by the m4RFO of L_tn and S‐Clr, separately for Period1 and Period2 (Figure S18 in Supporting Information S1). We found that S‐Clr clouds generally occur over higher SSTs than L_tn, with mean differences of about 1–1.5°C depending on the season, although the two distributions still exhibit substantial overlap.

While the increase in SST between Period1 and Period2 is slightly larger for S‐Clr than for L_tn, the mean SST difference between Period1 and Period2 (about 0.2–0.3°C) is much smaller than the mean difference between the L_tn and S‐Clr groups. Considering the recent warming trend in tropical SST combined with this inherent nature of L_tn and S‐Clr occurrence, the transition from L_tn to S‐Clr is a physically plausible change.

As a secondary tier of contributors, the Mid and H_tn groups contribute negatively, while the Clear group contributes positively (like the S‐Clr group), all driven by RFO changes (Figure 6b). Net contributions from these three CR groups range from 0.65 to 0.87 Wm 2, depending on the models. As a result, when combined with the net contributions of +0.70 Wm 2 from L_tn and S‐Clr, the large contributions from these five groups mostly cancel each other out, suggesting a diminished role of clouds in OLR in the later decade (decreased cloud cover via the increased occurrence of the S‐Clr and Clear groups).

"Cloud Regime Contributions to Recent Changes in Outgoing Radiation: A 22‐year Satellite Data Analysis"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2025JD045207

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 30

Currently, the El Nino central part is cooled down by stronger surface winds... Surface winds across the equator or along it can have a significant impact on El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies. Seems to the the case just now... #climate #earth

Shows surface winds over the El Nino region - quite strong.

Just surface winds over the tropical Pacific large strong wind fields that more cross-equatorial.

Winds at 1.5 Km high are also quite strong and build lower jet like structures - one moves strongly over Middle America to the west into the Pacific.

The central Pacific cooled the last days to some extent.

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 29

Nicely how sea surface temperature anomalies align over the global oceans with recent increases in ocean heat content. SST anomaly map from 2026-03-03 Just snap shot, but also over longer time scales matches up nicely... #climate #earth

Kind of interesting that annual heat uptake patterns seem to be a good proxy of where early MHWs will intensify in the following year...

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 29

Just update the scientific discussion on circumpolar Southern Hemisphere heatwaves which intensify fast during Austral summer... Here a stalling wavenumber-4 constellation: #climate #earth

From the study:

I show that MHW/MCS in the Tasman Sea co-occur with corresponding events in the Atlantic, Indian, and eastern-Pacific Oceans, and these southern hemisphere events are likely driven by stalling of a global wavenumber-4 (W4) atmospheric wave, leading to anomalously weak north-easterly winds during MHW or strong south-westerly winds during MCS. Thus, the key to predicting MHW/MCS is in understanding what causes the atmospheric W4 wave to stall.

"Atmospheric wavenumber-4 driven South Pacific marine heat waves and marine cool spells"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25160-y

Shows how massive 2026 had been - intensifies fast and becomes persistent through the summer...

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 29

Earth has humor as it will take both wannabee empires apart It's moisture transport into the greater US and China getting the job done It's a water planet overheating that wants to get rid of energy hence moisture transports have massively to increase We do not even have the sand #climate #Earth

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 28

There exist a reason why I only take data from the experts With all this IMO2020 nonsense driving sea surface temperature acceleration across the mid-latitude oceans since 2020 here the long term look at the North Pacific Sulfur reductions as the main cause my ass :D #climate #earth

If you twist and play with mean values x and y axis you get an IMO2020 signal but if you look at the real data, nope no signal just further accelerated. So some effect but not decisive...

Point is that IMO2020 sulfur reductions had been a mere 8Mt...

"Exceptional Heat and Basin-Scale Connections in
the Kuroshio-Oyashio Region in the Early 2020s"; https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5465083/v1/046a02de-44c1-40e0-a49d-2cf2fc0425c5.pdf?c=1731992811

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 28

Natural variability is toast, forced variability rules now fast scaling up Absolutely agree with this finding that sea surface temperatures (SST) are now increasingly a forced reaction Non-linear ocean atmosphere interactions start to rule the day - oops! Respect is strongly warranted #climate

We trigger here a massive forced reaction of an oscillatory system of an water planet heating up way too fast.

Here what they write:

"However, our method also detects that the forced response of SST increased sharply between 2021 and 2023, which may indicate accelerated warming due to external forcings in recent years. 2023 global-annual-mean SST reached a level unseen in recent history, and attribution of such extremes can provide insight into the behavior of our changing climate."

"Attribution of the record-high 2023 SST using a deep-learning framework"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/add322

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 28

Heat reorganization in the global oceans with the example of the Southern Oceans - they prepare to release more of the stored heat Models do not reproduce recent pattern changes hence, can not simulate these shifts in the oceans heat budgets and the ocean feedback in preparation #climate #earth

One of the most important changes in the climate system: an ongoing reorganization of heat in the global oceans with the aim to release more heat from the oceans to the atmosphere.

Here the example of the Southern Oceans that e.g. become a heat depot into which the atmosphere can more efficiently tap into - happens now in various ocean regions.

Just Antarctic mode waters and Antarctic intermediate water masses take up about 36% of the total ocean heat uptake. Hence, they are THe players in ocean heat uptake...

SO - Southern Ocean

"Collectively, these findings indicate an ongoing SO state transition that may already be reshaping global heat and carbon budgets. Continued warming and stratification changes would have far-reaching effects on ocean heat content, sea-ice extent and thickness, ice-shelf stability, and at a broader scale an impact on global overturning circulation, oceanic CO2 sequestration, sea-level rise and ultimately global climate regulation."

"Our analysis focuses on the long-term variability of temperature changes and trends within the principal water masses of the ACC over the past three decades, presenting the first observational evidence of an accelerated subsurface warming of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) at the New Zealand–Antarctica gateway, and identifying this region as a key hotspot of recent SO change."

"Within the main water masses of the region, Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water warm by ∼0.22 and ∼0.16°C decade−1 respectively, driven largely by strong temperature increase during the last decade."

For the graphs: water masses are Antarctic Surface Water - AASW, and Circumpolar Deep Water—CDW; Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC); Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW)

"Together, our results provide new regional evidence for the contrasting thermal responses of key ACC water masses and reinforce previously reported SO warming rates. Auger et al. (2021) report comparable warming within the ACC (+0.2 to +0.8°C decade−1) along the Hobart–Dumont D’Urville section, while Li et al. (2023), using global Argo data (2005–2020), identified an accelerated ocean heat uptake particularly within mode and intermediate waters, suggesting that the two northernmost water masses of the SO (i.e., SAMW and AAIW) contribute ∼36% of global ocean warming."

"Emergence of Subsurface Warming in the Southern Ocean Gateway Between New Zealand and Antarctica"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL121465

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 27

A new evaluation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shift - it did not move south the last decades because of aerosols but northward Would be another indication that aerosols maybe not too strong in their cooling role, especially, in a warmer world and recent impacts #climate #earth

New data made it possible to assess the trend better. Would be another indication that aerosols maybe not too strong in their cooling role. All quite open now. Especially, the most recent aerosol impact in a warmer world seems to change...

Here what they write:

A southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the latter half of the 20th century has been primarily attributed to interhemispheric differences in anthropogenic aerosol forcing. However, in recent decades anthropogenic aerosol emissions have declined, particularly over Northern Hemisphere (NH). Here, we explore the response of the ITCZ to changes in anthropogenic forcings over the past few decades. Using a suite of climate model simulations and observations, we find evidence of a northward migration of zonal-mean ITCZ since 1979. The decrease in anthropogenic aerosols over NH mid-latitudes and a global increase in greenhouse gases are dominant contributors to this northward shift. We also identify a small, non-zero contribution from large volcanic eruptions. A northward shift of the ITCZ over this period is consistent with observed hemispheric asymmetries in Earth albedo trends and adds support for model projections of a continued northward shift of the ITCZ in coming decades.

"Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026GL123402

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 27

@climatenews.bsky.social As I just prepare a presentation and I needed numbers - here where oceans took up the heat in 2025 when OHU skyrocked - the patterns just do not add up with IMO2020 - some effect yes, but not significant If we do here mistakes we are toast! www.nature.com/articles/s43...

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 27

The system goes now into mutual amplification mode as the El Nino takes effect via rising latent heat release from the tropical Pacific in the form of evaporation driving rising rates of convection which produce poleward moving upper air streams that alter mid-latitude circulation. #climate #earth

Earth is a water planet whose climate system is a steam engine. In principle the system tries to get rid of energy to space via tapping into the heat of the oceans which is then transported as hot upper air streams into regions that dry out and heat up, whose surfaces run hot as clouds declines and the atmospheric air column becomes a chimney to space or outgoing longwave radiation (OLR).

Hence, what you see on this map to emerge is a system trying to emit more OLR to space...

The problem: we have zero experiences to what extent the climate modes of Earth - coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation can synchronize to emit more OLR to space...

One imperative are expanding dry and hot zones around the planet into which the system pumps energy sourced from massive convective centers.

Regions of subsidence expand - high pressure - while regions of ascend contract and intensify - low pressure regions...

The text is from Ben Noll https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2070492277563093073/photo/1 :

One of the planet's most powerful heat domes will intensify over the eastern United States next week, bringing record-breaking heat and extreme humidity. The magnitude of this event could rival the one affecting Europe this week.

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 27

Time of emergence important to understand Earth system changes: here marine heatwaves There exist voices that aerosol emission reductions had been a major reason for MHWs to spread and intensify. Fun fact: the NEP had been the "Blob" triggered by reduced winter cooling in 2014... #climate #Earth

Problem is that (a) they do so also in the Southern Hemisphere and (b) the time of emergence of the global signal that emerged during 2000-2005, a time when global aerosol emissions had still been increasing.

Further, the trend is driven by the largest and most extreme marine heatwaves which are all an outcome of upper ocean atmosphere interactions.

Further, that MHWs started to intensify during 2000-2005 tells us that ocean heat uptake could be the driving factor as it continued unabated during the Hiatus when global surface air temperatures increase slowed down markedly...

Here what they write:

They analyzed the period of 1983–2019.

These characteristics confirm SST extrema exhibit strong spatial coherence that define the formation and evolution of MHWs. Furthermore, the most severe MHWSs deviate from these power-laws and are the dominant manifestation of MHWs: extrema in ocean heating are driven by the ~200 systems with largest area and duration. We further demonstrate that the previously purported rise in the incidence of MHW events over the past decade is only significant in these severe systems. A change point analysis reveals a rapid increase in days under a severe MHW in most regions of the global ocean over the period of 2000–2005.

"The rapid rise of severe marine heat wave systems"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/accd0e

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 24

The atrocity in two graphs Oceans starting to drive temperature jumps via a heat redistribution to the upper layer and cloud feedbacks feeding back on ocean heat uptake are the worst of signs... #climate #earth

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 24

Slowly 2026 ramps up - we are now at record values with the Antarctic having a large scale cold spell... Hence, from an Earth system perspective we are now in record territory by substantial margins...

Surface air temperatures at record values while the Antarctic has a large scale cold spell...

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 18

Does not look like a large temperature jump on the way - SSTs should start to peak significantly in advance - is not happening... A extreme El Nino could change it but still a massive peaking of SSTs in the extra tropical regions needed...

ENSO3.4. temperatures in the central Pacific increasing

Global SSTs still not sky rocking albeit at record levels.

Global oceans are rocked by marine heatwave which is the new normal now...

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 14

Spread it far: We are in the process to trigger a runway global warming driven by cloud feedbacks with possible no large net aerosol effect, accelerating ocean heat uptake, and a weakening Planck feedback- cooling of Earth via longwave radiation due to surface temperature changes #climate #earth

The graphs shows the contributing mechanisms to Earth's energy imbalance accelerating controlling incoming and outgoing energy.

The main problem are oceans stratifying leading to ocean heat uptake to accumulate at shallower depths

This preconditions the upper oceans to interact non-linear with the atmosphere leading to the non-linear spread, intensification, and persistence of marine heatwaves (MHW). Just weak winds are now able to trigger massive MHWs.

MHWs then feeds back on low cloud cover evaporating clouds via e.g. upwelling longwave radiation from higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

Further, we observe now how MHWs form in the low cloud regions of the oceans located at the western coasts of the continents. Higher SSTs in these areas reduce tropospheric stability that allows low clouds to become convective clouds which reduces overall cloud cover in these regions.

Higher SSTs driven by exceptional MHWs then increase upper ocean stratification and heat uptake at shallower depths while ocean heat uptake goes up as clouds decline and winds weaken - higher winds cool the ocean surface via evaporation which stops under wind still conditions

The above are some of the main reasons for ocean heat uptake to accelerate which feeds back on stratification and MHW expansion and intensifies El Nino discharge events where ocean heat is transferred to the atmosphere.

At the same time the Planck feedback is weakening via which Earth radiates longwave to space due to increases in surface temperatures.

We observe since 2010s a relative weakening of OLR to space due to rising surface temperatures.

It's a two sided blow: oceans heating up to fast building massive marine heatwaves which reduce cloud cover and thereby increase ocean heat uptake which feeds back on global surface temperatures as the oceans start to emit larger amounts of latent heat while at the same time OLR to space increase due to higher surface temperatures way less than we predicted it...

The graphs show the development of outgoing longwave radiation and incoming shortwave radiation from the 2000s to 2026, changes in absorbed shortwave radiation, and the net effect on Earth's energy imbalance (N). While absorbed shortwave radiation went up, outgoing longwave radiation even decreased over time with a large drop at the and and since then it recovered somewhat.

In graph (b) you can see the contributions to Earth's energy imbalance (N) of all sky fluxes (includes clouds), clear sky conditions, and cloud radiative effects (CRE).

While N had been peaking end of 2023 along with absorbed shortwave radiation and clear sky radiation all dropped end of 2023 again. N even reached for a short period negative values (Earth lost energy not gained). Since then clouds remained at average but clear sky contributions to N increased again with monthly N values again peaking (declining cloud cover also plays a role here). What is nicely visible in these graphs that N oscillates largely on annual/monthly timescales showing a upward trend in net multi-annual mean values.

This graphs shows Earth sensitivity towards rising GHGs. If net aerosol effects and SST pattern effects would be near zero, it would indicate that we are in a runaway global warming scenario as this would mean that feedbacks drive cloud cover losses and recent accelerations of MHWs.

The problem is here that we could have a decrease of aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere (ultra fine particles actually go up), while we have an increase in cooling aerosols in the Southern Hemisphere.

Further, we have increases in ultra fine particles in the atmosphere which counter reductions in overall SOx emissions to some extent as well.

If we have no large net effect of declining aerosol effects we would be in a runway global warming. In part this will be certainly be true, but to what extent?

A recent meeting of experts on the recent developments of the EEI warn that we could be in a runway global warming scenario...

Here the source of the graphs - an expert workshop:

Earth’s net incoming energy-flux imbalance – and its implications for understanding climate change – https://pure.mpg.de/view/item_3711842

A table showing different assessments of the aerosol cloud effect.

The experts of this work show seem to worry that we could just now trigger a runway global warming scenario as aerosol effects could be quite small.

Here what they write on a possible runway global warming:

F total forcing, P is the SST pattern effect controlling cloud cover over distinct regions, N is Earth's energy imbalance, Faer is aerosol forcing.

"The record poses severe challenges to understanding. Taken at face value, alongside best estimates of forcing, it implies a climate sensitivity much larger than is generally accepted, and under some interpretations even runaway warming. This is illustrated with the help of Fig. 9. It shows that when aerosol forcing is estimated based on the observed record (e.g., taking ˙Faer = 0.03 W m−2 dec−1 from the range of observed estimates in Table 1), with ˙P = 0, runaway warming is compatible with observed estimates of ˙N . Even if one adopts the much higher, model-based, estimates of ˙Faer ≈ 0.17 W m−1 dec−2 from Ref. [7], S ≈ 5.9 K, which is a factor of two or more larger than the AR6 best estimate [20]. Constraining ˙F + ˙P from S and ˙N implies that our ability to estimate F and/or P is less reliable than generally thought."

The weakening Planck feedback:

"Both direct estimates of heat-content and CERES radiant energy fluxes show a clear trend in N, of about 0.45 W m−2 dec−1. This trend has implications for the rate of warming. Given measurements of ˙N , along with estimates of ˙F , ˙P , and ˙T, we can estimate λ. Taking these estimates at face-value suggests that λ is much less negative than is usually thought, which would imply that Earth’s climate sensitivity is much larger than previously assessed [6, 7], perhaps as much as a factor of two or three larger. This is an alarming inference and was a major motivation for the Ringberg meeting."

umsonst@umsonst· Jun 13

In terms of SST it remains suspiciously quiet...