I can appreciate that knives might be out for DNC Chair Ken Martin. It comes with the territory. But, I swear, an article like this deserves more than one sentence devoted to the comparative look back to other past parties out of the White House. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/07/26/u...

So with that in mind, let's now talk about Martin's notion that AOC would downplay a FITN SC primary and build firewalls elsewhere in the early window. This is a good one. 6/

Here's another one (a mistake he makes *every* cycle): First of all, and to repeat for the 5th straight cycle now, Republicans allocate delegates proportionally too. States before March 15 are required to. And often have qualifying thresholds lower than the Democrats. ...in NH, for example. 2/

Martin often undermines not unreasonable points with factual inaccuracies about the nomination process. Here's one: The DNC didn't do that. Democratic-controlled state governments across the South, acting within DNC rules for 1988, moved their contests to the earliest spot behind IA/NH. 1/

Donna Brazile is correct here about the DNC waiting to finalize its early calendar lineup for 2028. www.axios.com/2026/07/23/d...

Well, I had to go check. ...just to be sure. But John Connally spent $44m in 2026 dollars for that one delegate he received in the 1980 Republican presidential nomination race.

This was barely 24 hours ago. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

The main questions are still the same as they were after the January meeting in San Juan. www.fhqplus.com/i/186772124/... 27/

This really shouldn't be normalized. Vance may be the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, but I object to the use of "presumptive nominee" at this point. ...*in the invisible primary!* www.wired.com/story/trump-...

Here's the list minus the at-large members who were just elected. I haven't looked for a list with the additional members yet. Don't know if they are public. But even that process changed this time around: www.fhqplus.com/p/the-2028-d...

May as well have some fun with this non-Harris version of the 2028 Democratic presidential trial heat in this way-too-early survey from Echelon. Fun fact: None of the candidates would qualify for delegates because no one reaches the 15% threshold. But... www.newsweek.com/pete-buttigi...

Sure, one has to scroll down to the fifth paragraph, but I appreciated Politico adding this quote to their story about Buttigieg's stop in Iowa. A trip to the Hawkeye state is not without consequence, but Iowa ain't the first state anymore. www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

Harris may or may not run in 2028. I don't know that I'd bet on that either way. However, I would be inclined to place a wager on there being a thermostatic response to the Trump administration. I don't know the extent of it, but I'm fairly confident in the direction. abcnews.go.com/Politics/lon...

Good one from @smotus.bsky.social this morning. Nodded along especially hard at this bit. smotus.substack.com/p/why-democr...

It isn't as pronounced, but the shift is still there from 2020 to 2024.

They held Warren's comments until almost the very end of the piece. ...and they were fairly boilerplate for her.

Lots of time to discuss all of this, but the only "current plan" there is is that the DNC will reexamine the early states every cycle. The states listed are the ones from the "2024 plan," not the "current plan." There is no current plan. The DNC has not written one for 2028 yet. 2/

Hesitate to call the order of states in these WSJ polls unusual. The battlegrounds are all close and tightly clustered. But under this alignment, Harris winning AZ/MI/GA gets her to 268. NC would become the tipping point. Trump would need NC to get to exactly 270. www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

I don't know. The polls in four of those five cycles may not have shown particularly close races at the end but they ended up that way. Seems to me that is a cautionary tale about assuming the polls will be right on the nose come November. However... www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/u...

2 days until the ABC presidential debate 12 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 58 days until the presidential election www.fhqplus.com/p/the-fhq-el...

5 days until the ABC presidential debate 15 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 61 days until the presidential election

6 days until the ABC presidential debate 16 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 62 days until the presidential election

7 days until the ABC presidential debate 17 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 63 days until the presidential election

Indeed. Harris has gained a little each day since I started logging the national polls. Trump has oscillated some but in a very small range. Below's the August trend line. No, the picture is not as dynamic as what one will see elsewhere, but the trend is both noticeable and persistent.

8 days until the ABC presidential debate 18 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 64 days until the presidential election

9 days until the ABC presidential debate 19 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 65 days until the presidential election

10 days until the ABC presidential debate 20 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 66 days until the presidential election

11 days until the ABC presidential debate 21 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 67 days until the presidential election

12 days until the ABC presidential debate 22 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 68 days until the presidential election

13 days until the ABC presidential debate 23 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 69 days until the presidential election