Yan Qin
@yanqin
Carbon analyst at ClearBlue Markets, Research Associate at OIES, China energy analyst living in Oslo 🇳🇴, 🇨🇦🇳🇱 |EnergyTransition•SustainableFuels•SupplyChain #carbonsky #energysky
📈 Look ahead, China carbon market will pose further breakthrough in the next five years (15th Five-Year Plan 2026-2030), and improve liquidity and price discovery
🚀Celebrating 5 Years of China National Carbon Market Since the launch of trading in 2021, it has expanded from covering 5 billion tons of emissions from 2162 power sector enterprises, to 8.3 billion tons from 3378 enterprises in Power Aluminium Cement Steel sectors, 65% of China's emissions
💡 A milestone for China's Renewables deployment policy: moving into the 'consumption-driven' era On 22 June, the NDRC and 3 other ministries (industry, buildings, transport) jointed issued Implementation Measures on Renewables consumption targets
🏭China state planner released 3-year action plan on energy savings and carbon reduction in key industries The upgrade and efficiency improvement measures are expected to reduce emissions by a total of 200 million tons. www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/20...
On 12 June, China's environment ministry approved in principle the 'National 15th Five-Year Plan for Addressing Climate Change'
In my view, this operationalization of Carbon Dual Control is laying the structural foundation for achieving the long-term climate trajectory, as China has committed to reduce economy-wide net GHG emissions by 7% to 10% below peak levels #ParisAgreement #NDC
The EU ETS surplus indicator: TNAC for 2025 has been released It stood at 1023.5 Mt, falling below the buffer of 1096 Mt for the first time 190 Mt EU ETS allowances (intake rate 18.6%) to be placed into the Market Stability Reserve between September 2026 and August 2027
❗ China issued high-level Opinions on Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction This policy sends a clear signal that China is staying course on its climate commitment Carbon Peak/Neutral/NDC #ParisAgreement
Market reaction: EU carbon price posted relief rally and hit near EUR 75 after the release. This implied significantly less impactful market changes to the EUETS (increase in short-term supply) than previously anticipated.
On 1 April, the EU announced new measure to reinforce the stability and predictability of its carbon market EUETS The Commission proposes to stop the invalidation mechanism in MSR, allowing these allowances to be kept as a buffer that can support market stability
China “clean energy bases” plan ...from the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) for national economic and social development, submitted to top legislature on 5 March for review. #TwoSessions2026
⛽ China signals new strategic push into #Sustainble fuels ...at this time with energy security high on the agenda amid heightening geopolitical risks #Hormuz 🚢
China 2025 Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development CO2 emissions/GDP (10kCNY) fell 5% y-o-y
✈️China national Carbon market prepares further sectoral expansion, to more industrial sectors and civil Aviation, likely by 2027 The 9 Feb 'Notice on 2026 national ETS work tasks' mandates reporting of 2025 GHG emissions by key enterprises in six more sectors by 31 Mar:
🏒🏒🏒 in sync with #MilanoCortinaOlympic2026 Sunday visit to 1994 Olympic city Lillehammer 🇳🇴 for daughter’s ice-hockey tournament #hockeymum
🔆 🔆 🔆 China to add 180 to 240 GW Solar capacity in 2026 ...latest forecast by China PV industry association released on 5 February. It also projects China to add 265 to 300 GW solar in 2028, 270 to 320 GW in 2030, avg 238-287 GW/yr during 2026-2030
🔆China electricity consumption to grow 5%-6% in 2026 said China Electricity Council in its latest 2025-2026 analysis and outlook report For 2026, it also expects power peak load to rise to 1570-1630 GW, and Solar capacity to take over Coal
The notice www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz... official Q&A www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/jd/jd/2...
NEW: China power market: the shift to 'Energy + Capacity' On 30 Jan, NDRC and NEA released 'Notice on enhancing the capacity mechanism for power generation' 🔑 For the first time at a national level, #energystorage and #gas power are explicitly included in capacity mechanism
China adds more power capacity in a year than most countries have total “The build-out remains very strong, with super robust numbers going from record to record,” said Michal Meidan, the head of China energy research at OIES www.bloomberg.com/news/article...