Alex Baker

@aabaker

Former (and hopefully future) Dem. data staffer, AZ->Chicago. Russian-American, Double Devil. Cardinals/Bears fan.

618 Folgt237 Follower359 Posts

Bluesky

Ist das dein Profil?Übernimm es — dann gehört dir aabaker.dirty.social.Profil übernehmen

Alex Baker@aabaker· 21d

Yeah, tribute show.

Stubhub screenshot showing tickets for "80 Years of John Prine: Presented by the Prine Family"

Alex Baker@aabaker· 23d

UK PM Harold Wilson's quote "Have you noticed how we only win the World Cup under a Labour government?" from 1966, except "PSOE" is swapped in instead of Labour and the image of Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez is pasted over PM Wilson's.

Alex Baker@aabaker· 26d

He apparently had quite the reputation.

Rabbi Yirmeya raised a dilemma before Rabbi Zeira: If the bird is big and contains such a large amount of blood that it effaces the water, rendering it indistinguishable, or if the bird is small and contains so little blood that its blood is effaced due to the water and indistinguishable, what is the halakha?

Rabbi Zeira said to him: Haven’t I told you not to take yourself out of the bounds of the practical halakha? Do not ask questions about impossible eventualities. The Sages measured the ratio of blood to water specifically with regard to a sparrow. There is no sparrow big enough to efface the water, nor is there one small enough to be effaced due to the water.

Alex Baker@aabaker· Jul 6

Reminds me of how back in 2018 the Arizona State House voted 56-3 to expel habitual sex pest Don Shooter. The two Republicans who opposed the measure - alongside Shooter himself - were David Stringer and Noel Campbell. Their wiki articles got additions in the following years:

A screenshot of Campbell's wiki article that reads "n December 2020, Campbell’s wife accused him of domestic violence according to a police report taken by the City of Prescott Police Department. According to Campbell’s wife, the former state representative pushed her multiple times until she fell over and then “struck her multiple times in the neck and multiple times in the face.” Campbell’s wife did not press charges as she believed Campbell’s violence was a result of early stages of dementia and that they would be seeking medical treatment."

A screenshot of Stringer's wiki article that reads "On January 25, 2019, the Phoenix New Times reported that Stringer had been charged in 1983 with five sex offenses, including two child pornography charges, while he was living in Baltimore. He had accepted a plea bargain on charges of paying two boys for sex, one of whom was developmentally disabled, and was sentenced to five years' probation.[16][17] In 1990, he had the charges expunged from his record. In response to calls for his resignation, Stringer confirmed that he had been arrested and charged with the offenses but stated that he would not be resigning from the Arizona House.[18] On March 27, 2019, facing a deadline to hand over documents regarding his 2018 comments and the 1983 sex offenses, he abruptly resigned from the Arizona House."

Alex Baker@aabaker· Jun 23

Munsil's best known as the sacrificial lamb to the all-conquering tide that was Gov Napolitano's reelection campaign in '06. He ran on kitchen-table issues like griping that the 9/11 Memorial included Balbir Singh Sodhi, and that Piestewa Peak got renamed from its previous racial+gendered slur name.

The wikibox from the 2006 Arizona gubernatorial election showing Republican Len Munsil somehow managing to lose every single county to incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano.

Alex Baker@aabaker· Jun 12

Heck, since I'm bored: Do you believe this excerpt from their PA lawsuit to be true? If yes, what kinds of examples of that occuring in other (non-Russian/Ugandan) elections would you be interested in, and how many? I've got old races, foreign ones, Dem. primaries, nonbinding referenda, the works.

Excerpt from ETA's PA lawsuit that reads "90. In 2012, Dr. Klimek, Yegorov, Hanel, and Thurner published research
demonstrating that fraudulent elections exhibit distinctive statistical patterns. In fair or normal
elections, vote share for winning candidates remains stable across different turnout levels.
Fraudulent elections show unusual clustering at high turnout/high vote percentages.
91. Instead of tight clustering around typical values, fraudulent elections show data
spreading or smearing toward the upper-right corner of vote-turnout plots."

Alex Baker@aabaker· Jun 12

3. Claimed to have "controlled for demographics" despite the 6 variable combo they used generating far lower (5-10x) partial r^2s for SigC in my run, and the 100+ variable set I threw at it generating even smaller partial r^2 (100-200x lower than claimed).

Partial r^2 test on GOPReg totals (FraudSigC) using just the 7 demographic controls ETA claimed to use, already only 1/5th of their magnitude.

Partial r^2 results for SigC after applying a full demographic battery at the county level. Further drops can be induced by substituting precinct-level stats.

Alex Baker@aabaker· Jun 12

1. Wrote everything they did about FraudSigA without disclosing the only reason 1/GOPReg has such a big coeff. is an outlier precinct (Edgewater 1.5 in Kenton) where there are 7 registered GOP voters and 1 voter turned out (for Masse). Had that voter voted Gallrein the signature would have flipped.

Basic graph of 1/GOPReg in the KY-CD4 race with Massie winning Edgewater 1.5 (upper-right corner) 1-0.

Same graph as before, just now Massie has lost Edgewater 1.5 (bottom right) 1-0 instead of winning it 1-0.

Alex Baker@aabaker· Jun 7

Really loved this cutscene from of Age of Mythology:

A photoshopped image of Nithya Raman's head over the physical embodiment of the Egyptian god Osiris from the game Age of Mythology, seen here saying "I have come upon Sunset Boulevard and with my own two feet taken possession", a slight modification of the in-game "I have come upon the earth and with my own two feet taken possession" (derived purportedly from the Book of the Dead), spoken by Osiris right before he starts flinging meteors from the game's bad guys from the sky.

Alex Baker@aabaker· Jun 6

The State Treasurer race is also functionally indistinguishable from the Pres. one re. distribution shape. The same scary graph shapes ETA loves flagging can be derived from either one. If such distributions were impossible under normal US voting behavior we'd have heard of PA RLA discrepancies.

Side-by-side KDE heatmaps of the correlation between turnout and GOP vote share in the 2024 PA Presidential and State Treasurer races, both showing nigh-identical shapes, and if anything the "anomalous" correlation is stronger in the Treasurer race.

Side-by-side scatterplots of the correlation between total precinct votes and GOP vote share in the 2024 PA Presidential and State Treasurer races, both showing nigh-identical shapes, and if anything the "anomalous" correlation is stronger in the Treasurer race.

Scatterplot of GOP Presidential vote share vs. GOP Treasurer vote share in PA in 2024, showing a >0.985 r^2 correlation.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 27

Were this method actually worthwhile to use in detecting potentially fraudulent anomalies, it'd flag results out of places like Nebraska, Kansas, Oregon, and Minnesota as all visibly benefitting Harris.

Graph showing Harris vote share in Nebraska in 2024 increasing as precinct size does

Graph showing Harris vote share in Minnesota in 2024 increasing as precinct size does

Graph showing Harris vote share in Oregon in 2024 increasing as precinct size does

Graph showing Harris vote share in Kansas in 2024 increasing as precinct size does

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 27

If you ignore municipal boundaries (which are another limitation on just which precincts get drawn where) and only limit yourself on contiguity you can force the r^2 to grow obscenely high. Non-contiguous configurations make the r^2's even larger. These all result in the same countywide vote totals.

Simulation of a theoretically-possible combination of Allegheny County precincts ignoring municipal boundaries that leaves a strongly positive correlation between EDay vote totals and Harris.

Simulation of a theoretically-possible combination of Allegheny County precincts ignoring municipal boundaries that leaves a strongly negative correlation between EDay vote totals and Harris.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 27

If you toy around with which precincts you combine together, you can instead force Pittsburgh to have mega precincts on the right side of the graph, despite changing 0 votes in the process. And the existing negative Harris/positive Trump correlation is only ~1/3rd as strong as it could be.

Simulation of a theoretically-possible combination of Allegheny County precincts that leaves a strongly positive correlation between EDay vote totals and Harris.

Simulation of a theoretically-possible combination of Allegheny County precincts that leaves a strongly negative correlation between EDay vote totals and Harris.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 27

Time and again in this current political distribution of coalitions you're going to see smaller precincts in Allegheny County go blue and bigger ones go red. It's even visible when you search for splits in primary participation by precinct. This points to something structural from year-to-year.

Split of partisan primary preference by precinct in Allegheny County, 2022

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 27

Yeah, I've got some stuff about Allegheny County and can go a bit more indepth about why the GOP precincts are consistently bigger. First off, the plot of registration total vs. GOPPct, and some races from the 90s showing correlation between votes cast and GOPPct even then.

Graph of precinct count of registrants in Allegheny County vs. what % of them are registered GOP

Comparison between Ballots Cast at an Allegheny County polling place in 1992 and GOP% for the Auditor General race

Comparison between Ballots Cast at an Allegheny County polling place in 1996 and GOP% for the Treasurer race

Comparison between Ballots Cast at an Allegheny County polling place in 1996 and GOP/Dem% for the Presidential race

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 25

Bit further eastwards but Roosevelt and Canal is an interesting corner, to say the least.

Google Maps walking directions from the closest Dollar Tree store to me to the closest Nordstrom store.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 22

Sorry, since this is the 3rd reply I've gotten in this vein I fear I might be being misread: I want to be 1000% clear that I concur, that there is no irony in my first comment, and that I hope Galindo goes the way of Duke. Just felt like drawing a throughline to the last example in a Dem. primary.

A screenshot of my 3 most recent donations through ActBlue, including 2x$25 to Johnny Garcia in Texas.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 16

The funny/bizarre/depressing/unsettling/your adjective of choice thing is that apparently he very much was:

Op-ed coauthored by Platner in the wake of Nord Ost telling Americans to "always ask why" terrorists do terrorism because "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter".

Coverage of Platner getting kicked out of a Bush-Collins rally for protesting Iraq in Oct. 2002

Old Platner yearbook photo where he's holding a poster calling for the liberation of Kurdistan, Palestine, Chechnya, Tibet, Kashmir, and Kosovo

Excerpt from a Platner 2011 Reddit post talking about how he was politically active in HS.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 16

He said as much in a 2011 Reddit post, coincidentally. Explicitly asked for infantry and for Iraq despite believing it to be the less-justifiable of the two wars. www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/...

Platner comment from Reddit in 2011 about how he explicitly asked for the infantry and Iraq upon enlisting in the USMC.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 7

This image of 2-18 participating in it during the 2010 parade now probably looks about as bizarre as a unicorn grazing in Central Park.

Members of the US 2nd Battalion, 18th Infantry Regiment during dress rehearsals for the 2010 Moscow Victory Day Parade

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 6

Eh, you can find those strings upon searching: www.justice.gov/epstein/file...

Epstein email from late 2016 where he uses the phrases "watcha", "bust out", and "cryin"

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 3

Their two tests can also send out conflating signals. In Hendricks County IN for example Harris has positive TotalVote correlation, but Trump has a positive turnout correlation. The same has been taking place across elections in MN since 2016 (though Dem correlations always stronger than GOP).

Timeline showing strength of TotalVotes->Dem and Turnout->GOP correlations in Minnesota since 2008. A noticeable uptick for both metrics across races (President/Senator/Governor) can be seen beginning in 2016, but the strength of Dem correlations (which would be deemed anomalous by ETA) consistently outstrips GOP turnout correlations. In 2018 all 3 statewide races show near-0 correlation between GOP share and turnout.

Graph showing Harris vote share in Hendricks County, IN increasing as precinct total votes cast do in 2024

Graph showing Trump vote share in Hendricks County, IN increasing as precinct turnout does in 2024

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 3

And now turnout: * Favoring the Hungarian opposition in 2022 vs. Orban * Favoring Le Pen in France in 2022 * Favoring the LibDems and Tories (and hurting Labour) in the UK in 2024 * Hurting NZ Labour in 2023

Graph showing Hungarian opposition vote share in 2022 increasing as precinct turnout does

Graph showing Marine LePen vote share in 2022 increasing as precinct turnout does

Graph showing UK Conservative/LibDem vote share in 2022 increasing as precinct turnout does while Labour vote share decreases

Graph showing NZ Labour vote share in 2023 decreasing as precinct turnout increases

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 3

The trends are visible in international elections as well. First a small sample of TotalVotesCast correlations: * Against the AFD in Saxony 2025 * Favoring the SPD in Saxony-Anhalt 2025 * Favoring the Canadian Tories in Labrador 2025 * Favoring the Canadian Greens in Outremont 2025

Graph showing AFD vote share in Saxony 2025 decreasing as total precinct votes cast increases

Graph showing SPD vote share in Saxony-Anhalt 2025 increasing as total precinct votes cast increases

Graph showing Tory vote share in Labrador riding 2025 increasing as total precinct votes cast increases

Graph showing Green vote share in Outremont riding 2025 increasing as total precinct votes cast increases

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 3

Their last one swaps total votes cast for turnout. By ETA's logic the following races show pro-Dem anomalies: * 2024 Hawaii for Harris * 2024 San Francisco for Harris * 2024 King County WA (Seattle) for Harris * 2024 Dearborn MI for Harris

Graph showing Harris vote share in Hawaii in 2024 increasing as precinct turnout does

Graph showing Harris vote share in San Francisco in 2024 increasing as precinct turnout does

Graph showing Harris vote share in Dearborn MI in 2024 increasing as precinct turnout does

Graph showing Harris vote share in King County WA in 2024 increasing as precinct turnout does

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 3

Approach #2 is measuring whether or not there's a positive correlation between total votes cast per precinct and candidate vote share. By ETA's logic, the following races show pro-Dem anomalies: * 2024 Nebraska for Harris * 2024 Minnesota for Harris * 2024 Oregon for Harris * 2024 Kansas for Harris

Graph showing Harris vote totals increase as Nebraska precinct size increases

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 3

But that's just not true. 4 of 7 don't have auto recounts at all. In the others the margins easly cleared thresholds. AZ: R+5.53 vs 0.5% threshold GA: R+2.19, no auto recounts MI: 80.1k vote margin vs. 2k vote threshold NV: R+3.1, no auto NC: R+3.21, no auto PA: R+1.71 vs. 0.5% WI: R+0.86, no auto

A table of recount thresholds by state:

AZ: Auto under 0.5%, no manual requests
GA: No auto recounts, manual under 0.5%
MI: Auto under 2K vote margin, no restrictions on manual
NV: No auto recounts, no restrictions on manual
NC: No auto recounts, manual subject to varying limits - statewide race threshold is 0.5%
PA: Auto recounts under 0.5%, no threshold restrictions on manual
WI: No auto recount, manual available under 1%

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 3

Non-zero, though he switches it up with "from the standpoint of". I think both get used semi-often in the JAJ impersonation on SNL.

Various web links of Trump comments where he says the phrase "as it pertains to"

A screenshot of Trump at a Jan 3rd 2026 presser about how the US will have a presence in Venezuela as it pertains to oil.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 2

43 years as an airline, 34 of which (rounding up) were explicitly as Spirit.

A screenshot of Spirit Airlines Wikipedia page, showing when it first became an airline under a different name 43 years ago, and became Spirit ~34 years ago.

Alex Baker@aabaker· May 2

Theyre also undermined by the fact that half of what they have is diametrically opposite from the other half. They have tried and will (thankfully) stupidly continue to try to brand him both as Mr. Totenkopf and the leftie peacenik who wrote we should seek to understand why terrorists do terrorism.