Adam L

@adam-lg

Data Scientist. Poli sci PhD. Cyclist (Gravel, MTB, road). Bayes, causal inference, etc. Also: cats, food opinions. Views & opinions my own. Not investment advice. He/him

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Adam L@adam-lg· 26d

A train doggo

Adam L@adam-lg· 27d

One of these

Adam L@adam-lg· 27d

🔥🔥🔥(kalikoba.substack.com/p/david-grae..., via @himself.bsky.social)

Graeber seems to have taken exactly the wrong moral from the story that he outlines. He sees theorists making broad generalizations and being disproven by anthropologists, and the thing he takes from it is that the anthropologists should be the ones making the broad generalizations. He sees theorists trying to revolutionize fields they don’t have any sort of expertise in to begin with, and he thinks, “That should be me up there.” He can’t see that, maybe, the lesson is actually to stop making broad generalizations about all of human history. He does not stop to consider the possibility that no one should pretend to intimate knowledge of a discipline they have never seriously studied.

In writing Debt, Graeber showed himself to be no different from the type of “ambitious European or American theorist” he mocks in that passage. The book is filled with factual inaccuracies and internal contradictions. Its “grandiose generalizations” are achieved through a stunning contempt for detail and complexity. He tells us that other anthropologists have avoided writing this kind of Big Book because it “is seen to smack of a kind of arrogance, even an intellectual imperialism.”2 Well, never let it be said that David Graeber ran from an opportunity to be arrogant. He thought he was too good for history.3

Adam L@adam-lg· 27d

If you've never seen it, someone cut together #Simpsons clips to the Moneyball trailer. It's scrubbed from Youtube, but still exists on the WayBack Machine: web.archive.org/web/20130727...

Adam L@adam-lg· 29d

Crazy to think the bad AQI day we're having today in NYC was just "normal" for summer in the 80s-90s. (Note that 2001-5 overlap across the two plots). Data via www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-...

Adam L@adam-lg· Jul 13

Peak technology:

Adam L@adam-lg· Jul 5

Wild how on the East Coast, because we got thunderstorms last night, the AQI is fine everywhere except DC:

Adam L@adam-lg· Jul 3

Failing at “outside the box” thinking

Adam L@adam-lg· Jul 2

@aaronrhanlon.com's article is good, and it's a point that Latour made in "Why Has Critique Run out of Steam?" - it's easier to tear down and "critique" than to build something; there's lots of reward in the humanities to critique, so there's no space/skill for "rebuilding."

Once you strip away the culture-warring over rigor and politics, you come to the humanities problem no one wants to talk about. It’s the problem of the deep conservatism of humanities institutions, which manifests not as reactionary politics but as a refusal to seek and locate our value outside of the traditional gestures of interpretation, cultural critique, and complicating or “problematizing” things (as opposed to clarifying and explaining them). More concisely, this is the problem of “what next?” What is our purpose and value in the world we have, not the world we have lost?
It’s both a shame and a strategic blunder that so few humanities scholars have an answer to “what next?” that isn’t simply a call to activism or a form of special pleading. It’s terribly ironic, for example, that with the rise of AI technologies, scholars across the disciplines are converging on research questions about the mysteries and complexities of language while humanities scholars converge on “AI is bad!” A version of the humanities that begins with curiosity, with what Toril Moi calls “why this?” questions, instead of what we now call “commitments” — conclusions to begin inquiry — would be better prepared to shape the future of AI and AI scholarship, among other things.

Adam L@adam-lg· Jul 1

Manhattanites’ reply:

The USMC “we don’t promise you a rose garden” poster

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 30

“Patron Saint: Matt Levine” 😎

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 29

Ice cream for dinner? Sundae from Ample Hills

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 29

Only drinking coffee this guy is involved in (iykyk)

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 26

One thing NYC doesn't lack for? Parks!

Robert Moses, who famously used his power as Parks commissioner for all sorts of projects.

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 26

Pass the poutine! (britmonkey.com/2020s-politi...)

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 26

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 25

Some of this seems like the problems of endlessly deferred maintenance keeping costs "artificially" low: they didn't spend the money to fix things when it was cheap, so now that it's expensive, it's going to cost significantly more.

But the buildings are plagued by leaks and elevators so dysfunctional that the Fire Department had to rescue people trapped in them dozens of times in the last year, according to Ms. Hill and the elected officials who signed the letter.

“I always tell tenants: Keep bottles of water in your house, because you never know when they’re going to cut it off,” Ms. Hill said.

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 24

Three #NY13 plots: 1) Pct Darializa (rel to darializa + espaillat) 2) Pct of total darializa + espaillat votes (in Manhattan) 3) Darializa vote share weighted by relative ED size: Basic story is her base was the larger EDs, and she was able to turn out more people there.

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 24

Like, if you look at the Manhattan results, the only AD Espaillat won was Marble Hill/Inwood. Everything below that went to Darializa. He was banking hard on the machine, when it hasn't delivered locally for five years.

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 23

Full disclosure, the head of FoJT is my uncle (pictured)

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 22

Livin' on a Prayer came out in 1986, and a 2nd grader would have been born in approx 2019. For context, this would be the equivalent of someone born in 1990 considering a song from 1964 their song of the summer in second grade. Here were the 20 biggest songs of 1964:

No. Title Artist(s)
1 "I Want to Hold Your Hand" The Beatles
2 "She Loves You"
3 "Hello, Dolly!" Louis Armstrong
4 "Oh, Pretty Woman" Roy Orbison
5 "I Get Around" The Beach Boys
6 "Everybody Loves Somebody" Dean Martin
7 "My Guy" Mary Wells
8 "We'll Sing in the Sunshine" Gale Garnett
9 "Last Kiss" J. Frank Wilson and the Cavaliers
10 "Where Did Our Love Go" The Supremes
11 "People" Barbra Streisand
12 "Java" Al Hirt
13 "A Hard Day's Night" The Beatles
14 "Love Me Do"
15 "Do Wah Diddy Diddy" Manfred Mann
16 "Please Please Me" The Beatles
17 "Dancing in the Street" Martha and the Vandellas
18 "Little Children" Billy J. Kramer & The Dakotas
19 "Love Me with All Your Heart (Cuando Calienta El Sol)" The Ray Charles Singers
20 "Under the Boardwalk" The Drifters

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 21

Biking good

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 21

TPB could have been edited down 30%

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 18

Got my Knicks “I voted” sticker 😎

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 17

This is a very cool looking paper, but the title ("Causal Inference with Missing Exposures and Missing Outcomes") is funny to me: it sounds like you can estimate treatment effects when you're missing both exposures and outcomes for the same observation. Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2506.03336 #statssky

Missing data are ubiquitous in public health research. When estimating causal effects, there are well-established methods to address bias to due missing outcomes. Commonly, causal estimands are defined under hypothetical interventions to "set" the exposure and to prevent missingness. We demonstrate how this framework can be extended to missing exposures. We further extend this framework to incorporate missingness on the baseline outcome, which induces missingness on the population of interest (e.g., persons at-risk). To do so, we highlight Counterfactual Strata Effects, a general class of causal estimands where the focus population is subject to missingness and/or impacted by the exposure. They are termed such because the estimand involves conditioning on a counterfactual this http URL each setting, we present the causal model, relevant counterfactuals, causal estimand, and identification result. We demonstrate with a real-data example to investigate the effect of alcohol consumption on the risk of incident tuberculosis (TB) infection in rural Uganda. We highlight the use of TMLE with Super Learner for estimation and inference and discuss the practical consequences of our approach.

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 17

[grinnellplans] whose [] syntax for tagging other users inspired Twitter's "@"

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 16

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 6

The best D-Day movie ever made

Adam L@adam-lg· Jun 4

Yeah, all the way to Wassaic. They could retire the tiny old diesels. Also, saw this dog on one of them Saturday