Adam Isacson
@adamisacson
He/Him. I work on security, borders, and migration at the Washington Office on Latin America (my views, not necessarily theirs). I'm also at wola.org, adamisacson.com, borderoversight.org, Mastodon elefanti.co/@adam
In the 10 full months since the "boat strikes" policy began—killing >=221 people so far—CBP has seized 2% *more* cocaine at US borders than it did in the 10 months prior to the boat strikes. Somehow, traffickers have found a way through the administration's lethal gauntlet.
Once again pitying all the kids who signed up to serve their states’ National Guards, only to find themselves roaming Washington's streets doing nothing. Hoping their commanding officers had enough brains rattling around their heads to have issued them N95 masks today.
It’s normal for migration at the U.S.-Mexico border to decline from May to June, as the heat intensifies. It’s a bit surprising, though, that Border Patrol apprehensions only dropped by 2%: June was the 2nd-highest month of the Trump administration (9,848, from 10,006 in May).
The wildfire smoke has reached DC. Everything smells putrid. I've lived in the northeast US most of my life, and never saw this when I was in my 0s, 10s, 20s, or 30s.
This month's increase in ICE-involved killings parallels this month's "quiet" increase in ICE arrests. @haleaziz.bsky.social reported this on July 1:
Why even bother to publish a use-of-force policy if agents are free to ignore its already vague, weak standards with impunity? There’s little evidence that it guides their training. It’s a Cabinet department policy, not a coffee-table book of aspirational suggestions. www.dhs.gov/sites/defaul...
June 21: US military bombed a civilian boat, killing 2. There were 6 survivors. June 22: US Coast Guard stopped looking for the 6, handed the search-and-rescue mission to Venezuela. June 24: Venezuela suffered a historic earthquake. RIP to those 6 people, who may not even have been moving drugs.
Happy Saturday morning. If you're in the eastern US, plant some partridge pea seeds, and you'll make bumblebees happy next year.
The Supreme Court's decisions today, on TPS cancellations and blocking border asylum access, enable arbitrary, capricious denials of protection in the United States. Many vulnerable people will die as a result. No moral code can justify this.
- Southcom leaves 6 civilians to die in the Caribbean. - Southcom says it alerted the Coast Guard to rescue them. - Coast Guard says, "Don't bother us about them, go talk to the Venezuelan government." "Get lost" or "Talk to the hand" would be less offensive.
99.65% of votes counted in Colombia. Far-right De la Espriella is ahead by 0.95%—tighter than expected, since right-of-center candidates were over 50 in the first round. Those who turned in blank "none of the above" ballots were 1.63%: nearly double the margin between the candidates.
It's seasonal: expect a decline in the June heat. And it's much less migration than in the past, when "the legal right to ask for asylum" still existed at the U.S.-Mexico border. But May's Border Patrol apprehensions were the most of Trump's second term. www.cbp.gov/newsroom/sta...
This, from a US embassy release, made my eyes pop: Panama (population 4.5 million) is now almost certainly receiving more US military/police aid than Mexico (130 million) had in recent years. pa.usembassy.gov/u-s-embassy-...
This "search and rescue system" has a really poor record. 3 survivors have been recovered on the spot. 15 more were never found. (And 2 more were killed while clinging to wreckage.) Why not pre-position search-and-rescue assets? Or is the point "keep survivors out of the courts?"
Peru's presidential election, with 98.2% of votes counted. I can't recall ever seeing anything like this. If Keiko Fujimori wins, it will be because of Peruvians voting overseas. Within Peru, Sánchez leads by 77,446 votes. resultadosegundavuelta.onpe.gob.pe/main/preside...
This identical language appears twice, in different sections of the bill. That's all it specifies.
The bill that Congress just passed, lavishing another $69.5 billion on ICE and CBP through 2029, has so few guidelines on how to use the money, and so little built-in oversight, that it's only 1,532 words long. A $69.5b slush fund that could've been an email. www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c...
Peru elections: with 96% counted, Sánchez leads Fujimori by 20,000 votes. But overseas votes are only 30% counted, and Fujimori leads those by 27,000 votes so far. Impossible to predict anything. resultadosegundavuelta.onpe.gob.pe/main/preside...
Peru's current election count: with 93.2% of ballots counted, the candidates are 0.132 percentage points apart. "Nailbiter" barely begins to describe it. Count: resultadosegundavuelta.onpe.gob.pe/main/resumen
Yesterday the Republican majority added another $350 million for ICE ops in areas where local government isn't "cooperating." So update these highlighted numbers, from our last Border Update, to $61,452,000 billion total and $31,075,000 for ICE. Bill text: bit.ly/4fY5XuT Narrative: bit.ly/4uTOske
If your broker says, "Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does!", fire them immediately. (It can't hurt to try saying it to debt collectors, though.)
Right. While dropping the "slush fund" would be great, it would undo the main sticking point keeping Republican legislators from rushing another $61 billion for ICE and Border Patrol through Congress on a party-line, simple-majority vote. Bill info in the Border Update: www.wola.org/2026/05/u-s-...