AFP Analytics
@afpanalytics
Hockey analytics consulting firm providing innovative insight to fans, agents, & teams. Focus on player valuation. Weekly episodes of the MaxTermPod. Still hanging around X. @kylestich.bsky.social @jamesfinch.bsky.social Linktree:
Leo Carlsson is taking his talents back to... Long Beach? The Anaheim Ducks have matched the Philadelphia Flyers offer sheet. $18M is much higher than projected, and seemingly much more than Anaheim expected. Gauthier needs a new deal too! All of a sudden, cap is tight for the Ducks! #NHL
The Troy Stecher AAV is $1.35M on a 2 year deal. Fair contract for both sides. Historically, Stecher is a under the radar defensive defenseman. Should help as bottom pair or extra defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs. #NHL
The Anaheim Ducks have traded the UFA rights of defenseman Radko Gudas to the Florida Panthers. If the two sides come to a deal, this would be Gudas' second stint with the team (20-21 through 22-23). #NHL
Brendan Gallagher is headed from the Montreal Canadiens to the Vancouver Canucks. Gallagher fell out of the lineup with Montreal and will now look to reestablish his game and bring a veteran presence to Vancouver. He is technically extension eligible (seems unlikely at this time). #NHL
The Nashville Predators have acquired Nils Hoglander from the Vancouver Canucks for a 3rd round pick. Hoglander is a buy low candidate for Nashville. The hope is he rebounds to his 2023-2024 form. #NHL
Per Pierre LeBrun, the AAV on the new 6 year Beck Malenstyn contract with the Buffalo Sabres is $2.9167M (within reason vs projection). This is in line with a recent 4th line comp from this offseason (C Michael McCarron). At this AAV, shouldn't be worried about that term. #NHL
Mason McTavish, traded from the Anaheim Ducks to the St Louis Blues, is locked in for 5 more seasons at $7M AAV. He is a young center who can provide solid offensive play. The concerns in his game revolve around poor defensive play and lack of speed. #NHL
After one season in Utah, the Utah Mammoth decided to move JJ Peterka to the Boston Bruins for two first round picks. The Bruins acquire a speedy, scoring winger under contract for 4 more seasons at $7.7M AAV. #NHL
The Toronto Maple Leafs have traded Brandon Carlo to the St. Louis Blues for two 3rd round picks. Ultimately, Carlo was not a good fit in TOR. He'll look to find his defensive game again in St. Louis with a familiar head coach in Jim Montgomery. Extension eligible. #NHL
Burakovsky, traded from the Chicago Blackhawks to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for the OTT 2027 6th round pick, is top 9 winger who is eligible for an extension (although unlikely). OTT is likely still looking to add up front. #NHL
The Buffalo Sabres acquired pending RFA D Olen Zellweger from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for prospect C Anton Wahlberg & pick 42 in the 2026 #NHL Draft. Zellweger could battle for a top 4 spot or ultimately settle in on the bottom pair. LT and ST (most likely) projections👇
Samuel Ersson has been traded from the Philadelphia Flyers to the Toronto Maple Leafs, and has now been sent to the Ottawa Senators for a 2027 5th. Ersson's projection this offseason was his qualifying offer. #NHL
One of the big trades yesterday... the Vegas Golden Knights send Dorofeyev to the New York Rangers for a 26 1st, 26 3rd, and 28 1st*. It also produced the biggest contract signed yesterday. Dorofeyev get $11M(!!!!) over 7 years. That's a significant increase over our projected ~$9M. #NHL
Brandt Clarke has locked in long term with the Los Angeles Kings. A little shorter than your traditional long term deal, he comes in 2 years under projected, buying less UFA years. That means, reasonably, a lower AAV than projected. Coming off a very strong year. #NHL
Jordan Spence and the Ottawa Senators have agreed to a new contract. This seems to have put to rest the speculation that he could be moved out of Ottawa. Very good impacts this past season, provides offense from the back end. #NHL
Brett Kulak has signed a new deal with the @Avalanche, keeping him from UFA. This comes in with an extra 2 years and about 450k higher than projected. Kulak is notorious for providing good shutdown defensive play. Last year in EDM was slightly down, but recovered in PIT and COL
Brent Burns has signed a new deal with the Colorado Avalanche. We expected a low value deal, so this is not shocking. Performance bonuses could bring the total value to $3M #NHL
Tony DeAngelo and the New York Islanders have agreed to a new contract, keeping him from UFA. $4.5M is a great deal for DeAngelo. He provides offense from the backend but leaves a lot to be desired defensively. Good win here on the player's side. #NHL
Declan Chisholm has been traded from the Washington Capitals to the New Jersey Devils for a 2027 4th. Making $1.6M for one more season, he currently projects to be the 7th defenseman for New Jersey.
Valeri Nichushkin has been traded from the Colorado Avalanche to the Columbus Blue Jackets for a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th. Nichushkin, when playing, can be a good fit on a second line and bring positive impacts at both ends of the ice. #NHL
Ian Moore, a 3rd pair defenseman, has agreed to a deal with the Anaheim Ducks . Comes in a little bit under projected AAV. It'll be interesting to see what ANA does with their defense. Currently, it's possible there is a bigger role up for grabs. Moore's skill is intriguing! #NHL
Garnet Hathaway has been traded from the Philadelphia Flyers to the Florida Panthers. A veteran 4th liner, Hathaway brings physical play and solid defensive metrics to Florida. Greer replacement? #NHL
Zach Benson and the Buffalo Sabres have agreed to a new deal. About 500k over projection, this isn't much of a surprise. Benson had a great playoff performance that increased his stock. #NHL
In the Tuch trade, the Buffalo Sabres acquired the UFA rights to David Kampf. Ideally a 4th line center, Kampf has had a history of solid defensive play. #NHL
Nashville Predators get best player in trade (Drury): Jack Drury (extension eligible, very good B6C defensively) Chase Bradley (prospect in AHL) 29 3rd Colorado Avalanche get young, controllable #NHL players: Zachary L'Heureux (physical) Fyodor Svechkov (hasn't established offense at NHL level)
Rosen gets a new deal done with the Winnipeg Jets that is very reasonable and can be buried fully if needed. He'll look to establish his scoring game in the #NHL next season.
Alex Tuch has been traded to the Washington Capitals from the Buffalo Sabres in a sign and trade. Tuch gets the 8th year with an AAV a touch north vs projected. Ultimately, about $13M more in total value. Capitals are big game hunting, Kyrou and now Tuch! #NHL
Louis Crevier, a 6'8" right shot defenseman, is headed to the Buffalo Sabres from the Chicago Blackhawks in the Byram trade. Crevier has some interesting traits to bet on and moves well considering his size. #NHL