Anthony Painter

@anthonypainter

Policy. Political economy. Increasing bewilderment. "The Three Economies" Substack here: #ynwa

1.268 Folgt8.299 Follower5.064 Posts

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Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· 28d

Stupidest "labour saving innovation" yet? Pour your own Guinness. Coming soon: cook your own steak at your local restaurant and make your own Cappuccino at Starbucks.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· 29d

Can't beat it. Strong India line-up too so good day ahead.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· 29d

Diane Abbott is absolutely right isn't she? Part of protecting democracy is protecting elected representatives. Social media is right at the heart of the corrosion of public life. And platforms that harm should be confronted.

*Diane* Abbott, the mother of the house, said at one point she was getting more abuse and threats than all other female MPs. She said the situation had got a lot worse since she first became an MP. And she blamed social media companies. She went on:

We need to find a way to make some of these online companies more accountable for the threats and the violence that they allow on their platforms.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 13

Glancing through the IS again two years later: 1. Successful development strategies have usually shielded developing domestic sectors while gaining access to others' markets. We are doing the opposite (esp in AI). 2. This feels completely inadequate:

vi) Nurture the UK's Digital and Technologies economy responsible for building our sovereign capability in the most strategically important areas, £670 million to drive the development and adoption of quantum computers in the UK, £500 million delivered through the Sovereign Al Unit, and a new programme of Al Growth Zones.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 9

Totally genuine

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 9

So much talk about smartphones. So little talk about Covid and wider system overload. The post-vaccine state response was pathetic: the taps were turned off when we needed, in education, health and wider supports, a surge. And now we are paying the price.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 7

USA/Trump humiliated, Farage, Le Pen. The accumulator of accumulators still in play.

EXIT-SALIDA

LIVE - 6,015 viewing

Updated 5 minutes ago

Le Pen at court to learn if she can run for French presidency as appeal judges rule on conviction

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 5

Yes, I mean he doesn't even mention it in his list of achievements! He does say this though....

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say. And I freely admit that one of the failings of my Government has been our struggle to boil the good work we have done into a simple and accessible vision for Britain's future.

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Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 5

When George Cottrell was arrested for wire fraud in 2017, who was with him? His mate. Nigel Farage. Hell of a detail on the story. Farage was, according to the Sunday Times, merrily accepting gifts in kind from him a few years later.

In 2017, Cottrell was jailed for eight months in the US after pleading guilty to a charge of wire fraud after admitting attempting to defraud criminals on the dark web by posing as a money launderer.

Farage was with him when US authorities

pounced as the pair were returning to the UK from a Republican convention.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 4

And the foreign policy speech he gave last December really shows the weakness of his thinking. It didn't get much coverage at the time but this line really stuck out. Showed a real lack of big picture ability.

A more transactional approach to pretty well everything - from trade, tech, and raw materials, to migration and security.

An internationalism that recognises the critical

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 4

And, the good news is, there is a lot of great thinking on the "productive state". Placed in a stronger strategic context, this could really start to bend the UK's economy back into shape.

Whether "abundance” can become anything more than a jarring slogan in the context of climate emergency, vastly increasing demands on energy and power (not least for compute infrastructure), and raging geopolitical conflict in areas pivotal to fundamental resources, I'll leave for another day. The broader point is that there is a bountiful garden of ideas on the productive state, including on devolved power and public control, for the Burnham administration to harvest from. When it comes to “pluralism", there

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 4

On AI.

Technologies such as generative AI enter the societal bloodstream. They become part of the semantic structure of society – how we understand ourselves and others – which changes our culture and democracy, influences our national security, and shapes our ability to provide genuinely public services. We ignored this when it came to social media – foolishly and we are now paying the price in terms of corroded culture, mental health, and democracy.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 2

And yet, there you are Terry, there you are. Posting.

terry christian @terrychrist.... 24m

:

Replying to @lisanandy and @MFIJake

Yep full if crayon eating knobheads and bots

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Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 2

Admiring the heroic levels of cognitive dissonance of the 3200 who liked this - whilst merrily remaining on the "abuse and misinformation" platform...

Lisa Nandy MP

@lisanandy

Follow

I've decided to leave this platform and my Department will too.

A platform originally designed for free speech and expression now favours abuse and misinformation over meaningful debate.

It isn't healthy for our democracy or our communities and I don't want to support it.

4:56 PM

02 Jul 26

1.1M Views

359 Reposts

2,378 Quotes

3,292 Likes

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jul 2

The biggest issue is not planning. Yet again. Quite remarkable that housing delivery is trailing the May, Johnson and on current delivery Sunak Governments. The private sector can't deliver what's needed. The state has to act at much greater scale.

As a result, the government is currently tracking below both the May and Johnson governments for total new homes delivered, and is below the run rate of the Sunak government, let alone what would be needed for 300,000 a year. It appears slogans and red caps aren't enough to counteract inflation and interest rates.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 29

This from LOTO demonstrates an incredibly shallow understanding of political economy.

If you look under the hood of Andy Burnham's proposals, you will find at their core, a mistaken belief, the belief that it is government that creates growth. It is not. It is business that creates growth.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 23

This would be a cracking appointment. James Purnell as Chief of Staff. Quite apart from his political experience, he's actually run things.

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Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

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EXCLUSIVE:

Andy Burnham is expected to appoint a former Blairite cabinet minister who is one of his oldest political allies as his chief of staff as he seeks to overhaul No 10

James Purnell, who served as pensions minister, culture secretary, and work and pensions secretary in the New Labour governments of Sir Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, is the frontrunner for the role, The Times has been told

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 23

We will need somewhere between an *additional* 600k to 1m care workers over the next decade due to retirement, increased demand and people leaving the sector. Are we sure targeting overseas care workers with new citizenship restrictions is sensible? And as for Home Office cost-benefit analysis...

For Adult Social Care, each year, we estimate an average of 40,400 workers needing to be replaced within priority occupations in the sector. Over the 10-year period of 2026 to 2035, the total estimated replacement demand is 404,000 workers. This increases the total demand for workers. When combining this with total additional employment demand to 2035 (281,300), the total demand for workers in Adult Social Care is 685,000.

However, this estimate of replacement demand for Adult Social Care could be a substantial underestimate. DHSC estimate (using Skills for Care data) that the number of staff leaving the "care worker" occupation alone in 2024/25 was greater than 100,000.

For Health labour market projections estimate an average of 67 800 workers each year

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 22

P1 of Labour's 2015 manifesto. Such a lot of nonsense all this stuff about Miliband and markets. Embarrassing actually. And his Net Zero policies are the signature, successful industrial and growth strategy.

The Labour Party Manifesto 2015

Labour's Manifesto Budget Responsibility Lock

Our manifesto begins with the Budget Responsibility Lock we offer the British people. It is the basis for all our plans in this manifesto because it is by securing our national finances that we are able to secure the family finances of the working people of Britain.

The Budget Responsibility Lock guarantees that:

Every policy in this manifesto is paid for. Not one commitment requires additional borrowing. We are the first party to make that pledge and with this manifesto it is delivered. We will legislate to require all major parties to have their manifesto commitments independently audited by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 22

Bond yields surging with fears of Miliband as Chancellor. Er, wait, does not compute.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 20

Yes, it is. It truly is. BBC firing on all political cylinders again.

Is it mad to imagine that other big names from the past - David Miliband or, even Ed Balls -might abandon New York and the breakfast TV sofa, and fancy a comeback too?

Just as there are compelling reasons for Labour

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 19

People don't want fascism. They want change. Labour has two years to show what real change looks like. This is it now. Last chance.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 17

London is scarred by Brexit but resilient. Industrial Britain, the manufacturing heartlands, the red wall, have been absolutely poleaxed. You think the politics align with that? Not a jot.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 16

And here is your periodic reminder of the most common occupations in Labour's most marginal seats. (You can see the full analysis in my Substack linked in bio). Who are they speaking to/for?

Most common occupations in Labour marginal seats

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 12

"criticised leadership". He has been relentlessly agitating on behalf of racial aggression and hard-line anti-migrant demagoguery. BBC News, what have you become?

He has also criticised leadership in the UK and elsewhere, often on topics of immigration and promoting of racial divisions.

Musk has repeatedly clashed with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, including over the murder of 18-year-old British student Henry Nowak.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 9

One of the biggest growth stories in post war Britain "like deindustrialisation under Thatcher" according to this union boss. 1 million jobs at higher than average wages. It's not the green economy that's piling costs onto business. It's the fossil economy.

Earlier this week, Gary Smith, General Secretary of the Labour-supporting GMB union, compared the government's net zero agenda to the deindustrialisation policies of Margaret Thatcher, saying it is "closing factories, hitting investment and hitting jobs". He told Times Radio that the

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 8

My heart sank when I saw the Martin Wolf headline this morning: "big bang reversal of Brexit both unrealistic and unnecessary". But then I saw what he proposes. And well, fine, if we're not calling this big bang.

Ideally, in my view, the UK would join the customs union, EU free trade areas and single market. It would also make financial contributions to essential EU programmes.

The most obvious hurdle would be the need to accept free movement of labour. But there are three reasons why this should be less of a problem than it was before Brexit. The first is

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 6

I keep hearing that hallucinations are a declining problem. But here again, when trying to understand a very specific issue, Claude just makes the whole thing up with *absolute confidence*. This only becomes clear when, as I always do, I ask it for proof. Then, yet again, it melts down.

Honestly, I can't — and I should be straight with you: I've been reasoning from first principles and general hop chemistry knowledge, but I don't have a specific citable source that confirms Nelson Sauvin dry hopping causes pinky-red trub.

Let me search and see if there's anything concrete out there.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 4

Started with Hague of course.

Anthony Painter@anthonypainter· Jun 3

And when I challenged it, completely different tack. (This is just a selection) This is a real problem and means that people will become uncritical of prevailing narrative. And in our current context, that's really bad news.