Antony Green
@antonygreenelec
Australian Election Analyst
Victoria is today set to abolish group voting tickets (GVTs) for Legislative Council elections. It will increase the power of voter first preference votes and diminish the influence of preferences. Without GVTs the losers will be low polling parties. antonygreen.com.au/how-gvts-hav...
The Impact on Senate Election Results of Abolishing GVTs – the Lessons for Victoria. Abolishing GVTs in 2016 ended preference harvesting and changed who gets elected by increasing the importance of votes over preferences. antonygreen.com.au/the-impact-o...
ABS statistics released today mean no change to state representation in the House at the next Federal election. Queensland falls short of gaining a 31st seat. The official determination will be made by the Electoral Commissioner in July. antonygreen.com.au/abs-populati...
A big win for Labor at the SA election but a warning in the result detail. Swings to Labor in Liberal and Labor marginal seats, but big swings against Labor and to One Nation in Labor's safe seats. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-huge-...
he electoral version of "doing a Bradbury". Independent Lou Nicholson wins the South Australian seat of Finniss from fourth place after the distribution of preferences. #auspol antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-finni...
Early voting going gangbusters for the SA election. With two days to go, numbers have passed total for 2022. This is first SA election where Early votes will be counted on the night. This post has the early and postal numbers plus detailed figures by district. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-track...
88% of Green preferences flowed to Labor at the 2025 election but not by "deals". Green voters reflexively preference Labor which shows up in seats like Fremantle where the Greens didn't recommend preference to Labor but the Independent still lost. antonygreen.com.au/do-greens-vo...
The how-to-votes are out for the SA election. Does it matter what they recommend? Check out my post from December with full detail on whether voters followed HTVs in 2022 including a link to detailed analysis of 2022 preference flows. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...
A record 388 candidates to contest the lower House of Assembly at the South Australian election on 21 March. That's an average of 8.3 candidates per seat. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-close...
My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...
The success of local Independents, the contest in Kooyong and what it tells us about where national politics is going. antonygreen.com.au/the-success-...
One Nation finished as one of the top three candidates versus Labor and the Coalition in 25 seats last May. These seats with One Nation in the 3CP would be amongst the legitimate first targets for the party on current polling. antonygreen.com.au/one-nations-...
As in the past, the Nationals have increased their % of Coalition seats in opposition. The collapse in Liberal seats has delivered the Nationals more power, but can National policy priorities fight ONP and help Liberals win city seats? antonygreen.com.au/here-we-go-a...
The Coalition split and the re-emergence of One Nation. Lessons on what a 20% vote for One Nation looks like from the only other election to produce such a result, Queensland 1998. antonygreen.com.au/the-coalitio...
My wrap of the Federal election result in Queensland. It continues to be Labor's worst state, but as in 2022, not bad enough to deny Labor victory. Labor gained seven seats including two from the Greens and Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...
Do voters just copy how-to-vote preference recommendations? Clearly not if you look at available data. Here's some Christmas reading with my latest post on HTVs and preferences based on data from the 2022 South Australian election. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...
I'm back to looking at the 2025 Federal election result, this time explaining the Victorian results. At the start of the campaign Victoria was where Labor could lose the election, but in the end the state delivered Labor a record result. More detail here. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...
I had a few problems getting my SA Election blog post to re-publish but finally sorted it out. SA Electoral pendulum with colour coded seat maps is now working at new address antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pe...
I've updated my South Australian election pendulum article with colour coded maps of the electorates. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/
A post on the SA Liberal Leadership change today, including an electoral pendulum for the state election in March 2026, and some notes on retiring members and the more complex contests at the election. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/
Comments on the weekend's Hinchinbrook by-election. Strong support for Premier Crisafulli in his home town of Ingham, a major setback for Katter's Australian Party, a strong vote for One Nation, and why did Labor bother? antonygreen.com.au/comments-on-... #qldpol
An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor. antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr... #auspol
In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
Big surge in 2017 and 2021, largely due to preference deals by group voting tickets. The tickets have been abolished in 2025 with the move to state-wide election of the Legislative Council so there will be a much more proportional result. So far 218 Assembly and 73 Council candidates.