PrSM is largely gone, but that's a new missile with a small inventory. The US has greater depth with long-range air launched missiles like JASSM-ER, but these too are strained. Running low on standoff missiles will alter how the US fights if it can't conduct war from a distance.

The US fired at least a third of its TLAM stockpile. TLAMs are the Trump admin's preferred weapon, so that stockpile may be smaller in reality. Volatile procurement and long production times means these missiles--crucial in a potential China fight--are not easily replenished.

The US consumed 40% of its THAAD interceptors -- and that's a conservative figure. THAAD stockpiles were lean to begin with -- and there's little slack to pull from other regions. The Pentagon may be trying to quadruple production by 2030, but that may be too little, too late.

We estimate the US has fired over half its PAC-3 MSE stockpile. A single interceptor can take 2+ years to build. Air defense is in high demand globally. Dwindling interceptors means less protection for US forces and to allies, and accepting risk that more missiles will get through.

Is the US out of missiles? Not yet -- but it's running low on the right ones. Our new analysis estimates US missile stockpiles in the Iran War, leveraging US budget data and reporting. There's cause for concern, especially for air defense interceptors and long-range standoff missiles.

We analyzed a Kharg Island seizure back in March. It would be a difficult military operation that would put US forces at very high risk. Seizing Kharg would be one thing, but holding it under continued Iranian drone and missile attack puts US forces directly in the firing line. A fools errand.

Despite the Iran war tying up significant military resources, strikes continued in other theaters. The US continued to hit alleged drug vessels in the Western Hemisphere. It also continued its shadow war in Africa, launching near-weekly strikes against al-Shabaab and ISIS affiliates. (3/4)

The enormous Iran war strikes dwarf the rest. But US strikes in Yemen were also sizable: over 1000 in under three months during Operation Rough Rider. Strikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria continued, furthering the US military campaign that began in 2014. Not included: several ground raids. (2/4)

How many military strikes has the US launched in Trump's 2nd term? We compiled every strike acknowledged by the Pentagon. The total: 14,415 worldwide. The data shows Trump's proclivity to use military force worldwide -- even at great cost. That's unlikely to change: more strikes are coming. (1/4)

Will Trump strike Iran again? If he decides yes, then the next 2 weeks stand out as key window. • Econ: blockade impact and oil shut-ins slower than desired • Mil: brief 3 carrier posture until Ford leaves; ARG + ground forces inbound • Pol: mid-May Xi meeting blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Casual reminder that the US has only procured 322 Tomahawks in the last 5 years. If the US shot 850 in Iran + a low estimate of 250 for strikes in the Middle East and Nigeria, it is clear replenishment rates do not match expenditure rates. The math doesn’t math, as they say.

Iran’s arsenal has taken a hit, but it likely isn’t exhausted. Launches are sustained and Saudi Arabia is increasingly in focus. The pattern suggests recalibration, not depletion: Iran can impose outsized costs by causing just enough pain. My analysis @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The US is firing limited advanced munitions - TLAMs, PAC-3s, JASSMs - at a breakneck pace, but replenishing them will take years and billions. Iran is waging a cost-imposing battle on the US defense industrial base -- and it is working. @bloomberg.com gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Iran fired 1200+ projectiles at 5 countries in the first 48 hours. Most were drones. These saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors. $20-50K Shaheds vs. $4.19M air defense interceptors put US partners on the wrong side of the cost curve.

US destroyers launched Tomahawks at Iranian targets, but here’s the problem: America doesn’t have unlimited TLAMs. The Trump admin burned through big numbers in earlier strikes on Iran, Houthis, and Nigeria without replenishing stockpiles. And TLAMs would be vital in a potential China fight.

Iran’s initial response was fast: SRBMs hit US bases in the Gulf. MRBMs are needed for continued strikes on Jordan and Israel, but Tehran may not have as many. Further retaliation and scale of damage hinge on stockpile depth: what was rebuilt after the 12-Day War and what survived the first wave.

To Trump, limited air and missile strikes on Iran may look like a quick win. But without a clear objective, limited campaigns often turn into long, costly endeavors. Iran gets a vote too and its response may defy US expectations. My thoughts @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump’s Middle East buildup has him backed into a corner: he needs a good ROI for the significant forces and resources tied up. This makes strikes more likely — or else this may be one of the costliest bluffs in history if he doesn't go through with it. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

We did the math on the US naval buildup in the Caribbean. The total: $2.9B. At its height, costs topped $20M a day. Much was already funded, but combat operations cost extra -- and opportunity costs are difficult to quantify. My latest for @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Shifting a carrier strike group and F-35s from the Caribbean to the Middle East shows the US can surge forces, but raises the real risk of overstretch. Repeated retaskings are trading tomorrow’s readiness for today’s pressure campaigns. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Iran’s missiles are its only credible deterrent against US and Israel, putting bases, shipping lanes, and energy infrastructure in range. Tehran won’t agree to cap missile stockpiles because it needs large numbers to overwhelm defenses and hit targets. For more: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

The 2026 NDS upends force planning. Homeland and Western Hemisphere first means fewer forward deployments, more reliance on surge forces. But surging depends on access from allies and a force built for China that may not fit new missions. More on the Terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Ukraine’s drones are hitting Russia where it hurts: oil refineries that fuel and fund its war. Each strike cuts output and chips away at Moscow’s war chest. Kyiv’s bet: economic attrition where battlefield gains have stalled. More on Bloomberg Terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

The US isn't at war in Latin America, but the military build up hints it may be readying for strikes on Venezuela -- even if Trump says otherwise. I analyzed the options for a possible military campaign and the low odds of success. Read on Bloomberg terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Zelensky wants Tomahawk missiles and Trump may finally agree this week. But limited stockpiles after overuse in the Middle East and poor procurement decisions means Ukraine may get too few to credibly impact the outcome of the war. Read on Bloomberg terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Russian drones & jets keep testing NATO airspace. Operation Eastern Sentry aims to plug holes in Europe's defenses, but it reveals gaps in capability Russia can exploit -- especially if US reinforcements are not forthcoming. Full analysis on the Terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

China's parade shows its military is advancing fast -- but can it take Taiwan and defeat the US by 2027? A look at how the two militaries stack up in key missions says no, but the balance of power is rapidly shifting. Full analysis available on the Terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

If there is an uptick in defense budgets, can European defense industry rapidly build more weapons? I talked with @evanhd.bsky.social at BBC Radio 4 about why the answer is both yes and no -- and why drone production differs from manufacturing big exquisite platforms. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Big questions for Trump's SecDef pick on key defense issues in today's hearing. What are the DoD priorities? Where are they going to put money and time--readiness or modernization? And what is the priority for deterrence--the Indo-Pacific or brushfires around the globe? Politico's Morning Defense.