Benjamin Braun

@benbraun

Political economist @ LSE | Finance, central banking & more | benjaminbraun.org

1.054 Folgt10.052 Follower1.085 Posts

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Benjamin Braun@benbraun· 23d

Extreme drought, raging fires, "Make America Great Again" Christian nationalism, privatization of "near space programs dealing with communications". If, like me, you hadn't read Parable of the Sower (1993) & Parable of the Talents (1998) before – there's never been a better time.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· 25d

Just installed the Zemble plugin for Zotero. To test it, I shared some literature linked to the "Democracy at work" report we wrote for the Spanish government. Literally one click in Zotero. @semble.so is going places. #atproto #atprotoscience See here: semble.so/profile/benb...

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· 28d

More benign conditions at the museum where the objects and wall paintings retrieved from Akrotiri are displayed. Just absolutely mesmerizing.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· 29d

While you all rushed to the air-conditioned theater after reading one FT interview with Nolan‘s favorite translator I’m breathing hot air thick with volcanic ash at Akrotiri to understand how the eruption of Thera weakened the Minoans, paving the way for the Mycenaean takeover.

Picture from the archeological site at Akrotiri

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jul 10

Imposing heavy losses on top wealth owners in a targeted way is, imo, one of our most pressing political economy challenges. The UK somehow achieved a 50% devaluation of assets held exclusively by the super rich (West London mansions), without much fanfare. www.ft.com/content/1daa...

"One house recently sold for more than 30 per cent below what it might have gone for a decade ago. Taking into account inflation, the price had more than halved."

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jul 10

Blast from the past

“Harvard’s Greg Mankiw and Bill White, formerly of the Bank for International Settlements, will review the central bank’s inflation frameworks alongside Sargent.”

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jul 9

In the literature on green industrial policy, everyone is focused on the state's capacity to mobilize 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭. Equally important, however, is the capacity to mobilize 𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘯𝘴 in support of collective goals. 2/

By contrast, we argue that transformative statecraft also hinges on po- litical actors’ capacity to mobilize citizens in support of collectively agreed goals. As noted by Bartolini (2000, p. 11) in his study of the European left, ‘mobilization’ car- ries a dual meaning, referring to “a complex process of self-mobilization and hetero- mobilization—of ‘being mobilized’ and of mobilizing.” In our definition, transfor- mative democratic statecraft is characterized by a fluid boundary between state-led “hetero-mobilization”—carried out by political parties or governments, with the goal not merely of assembling coalitions but of shaping preferences and forging collective political identities—and bottom-up “self-mobilization.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jul 9

Excited to share a new paper on transformative statecraft. We start from a critique of the compensation consensus in climate politics/political science. Compensating losers works – plenty of evidence for that. But when the goal is transformation (not reform), we need to think about mobilization. 🧵

Title: Beyond compensation: Climate politics, mobilization, and transformative statecraft

Authors: Benjamin Braun & Leah Downey

July 8, 2026

Abstract: Governments have pursued decarbonization through a combination of subsidies for capital and compensation for people. Political scientists have identified the compensation of those who incur losses from climate policies as the the central challenge in building green coalitions and achieving a just transition. However, a decarbonization path aimed at limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius en- tails transformative change for virtually everyone. We argue that, under such con- ditions, a compensation-based approach reduces green backlash to pocketbook concerns; citizens to bundles of fixed preferences; and evaluation to policy-by- policy assessment. Proposing to move beyond compensating existing preferences, we contend that transformative statecraft reshapes preferences through political mobilization. From this perspective, a technocratic approach—focused on calcu- lation and compensation—constitutes a binding constraint on green statecraft. We defend this mobilization-based approach against the objections of manipulation and deprivation of freedom and suggest that a democratic version of transforma- tive statecraft is possible.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jul 7

As usual, Anton says it best: "the desiccation of the mass-party capillary structures that once connected elected governments to local supporters has weakened rulers’ ability to forge hegemonic cross-class blocs or mobilize support for long-term business strategies" newleftreview.org/issues/ii159...

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jul 7

“You see, I merely work there. I, too, hate Belgium.”

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jul 3

Well, at least some in Europe are taking a hard look at those exposures. "Shorting America", as they call it in Kiel. www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Da...

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 29

Who are the crypto bros? The amazing Izaura Solipa crunched the data. Short answer: Crypto bros share the same privileged traits, educational credentials, and institutional access that characterize elites in 'traditional' Wall Street segments. Just out in SER: academic.oup.com/ser/advance-...

Title and Abstract of the linked paper:

New finance, old structures: cryptocurrencies and the reproduction of financial elites in the USA

Crypto research highlights the anarcho-libertarian feature of the crypto movement, characterizing the industry as a radical departure from governmental and corporate influence. This study investigates the characteristics of the US crypto elite, highlighting how the demographic structure and the institutional connections of the industry resemble those of the established financial elite. Drawing on original data from board members of top US crypto and financial firms, Fortune 1000 companies, and major policy-planning organizations, it develops three comparisons. Results show that crypto elites share similar socio-educational traits with traditional finance leaders and engage with powerful corporate and political affiliations, despite being more peripheral in corporate networks—likely due to the sector’s recent emergence. Notably, the White House appears in the career paths of both groups, suggesting a shared pattern of revolving door integration into state structures. Rather than a structural transformation, crypto appears to align with the broader elite configuration of the US political economy.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 28

No way, I’m staying home. #sase

“There are 600 people per shift, so some waiting in line is inevitable, and the cafeteria is at maximum capacity with this number of people. Thus, you will need to share tables, sometimes with strangers – embrace the awkwardness, maybe strike up a conversation!”

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 26

"one of the biggest ever job-cutting programmes by a European company." www.ft.com/content/d076...

Volkswagen to axe up to 100,000 jobs in sweeping cost-cutting drive
Restructuring follows blockbuster sale of marine engines unit to US private equity firm Bain

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 24

Tragedy of the horizon man strikes again.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 24

Ja, die Idealvariante von Kapitaldeckung läuft über Staatskapitalismus/Sozialisierung. Das ist im verlinkten Artikel mit "Promethean overhaul of the macro-financial architecture" gemeint.

"However, creating the conditions for labor-friendly stew- ardship of labor’s capital is just as ambitious a project. Short of a Promethean overhaul of the macro-financial architecture—think re-regula- tion and public banking—labor-friendly capital stewardship is bound to remain a Sisyphean task."

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 24

Woher kommen die Private Equity Renditen, die im "schwedischen Modell" den Lebensstandard im Alter sichern sollen? Zunehmend aus Krankenhäusern, Pflegeheimen, Mietwohnungen – beliebte Anlageobjekte für Private Equity. Die Konsequenzen für den "Lebensstandard im Alter" sind fatal – literally: 5/

“After private equity acquisition, Medicare beneficiaries admitted to private equity hospitals experienced a 25.4% increase in hospital-acquired conditions compared with those treated at control hospitals.” (Kannan, Bruch, and Song 2023)

“we find that PE ownership increases mortality by 11%. Declines in measures of patient well-being, nurse staffing, and compliance with care standards help to explain the mortality effect.” (Gupta et al. 2023)

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 24

Kapitaldeckung setzt einen selbstverstärkenden Prozess in Gang: Nachfrage nach Finanz-Assets ⬆️ -> Vermögenspreise ⬆️ -> Renditen in dieser Assetklasse ⬇️ -> Druck, in alternative Anlageklassen wie Private Equity umzuschichten ⬆️ Dieses Muster zeigt sich auch in anderen Ländern. 4/

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 24

Die Debatte in Deutschland ignoriert internationale Evidenz, dass Kapitaldeckung durch die Renditemaximierung der Pensionsfonds die Finanzialisierung befeuert. In den USA wäre Private Equity ohne Pensionsfonds nicht halb so groß. Ich habe das hier untersucht: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 23

This is joint work @claraleonard.bsky.social (the lead author 🙏), @jvtk.bsky.social & Eric Monnet. Here's the paper: www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/3082... Monetary Dialogue page: www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/e...

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 23

Another striking chart from our report: The correlation between the fossil fuel share in the energy mix and the inflation rate during the two most recent inflationary episodes. The only exit from this cycle: renewables and electrification. What does that have to do with the ECB? A lot! 3/

Figure 2: Fossil fuel share in the energy mix vs. inflation rate

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 23

... implies a differentiated monetary policy response to fossil fuel price shocks. Consider this: Every single ECB tightening cycle has been in reaction to energy prices (orange) rising much faster than the overall consumer price index (green). 2/

Plot: title = "Energy price inflation and overall inflation, in %", subtitle = "The history of ECB rate hikes is the history of oil price shocks",
x = year, y = "% change, year-on-year"

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 23

The discrepancy between the sober tone of reporting and the insanity of the slow-burn meltdown in private equity is widening by the day. I believe Minsky has a name for this type of borrowing? Starts with a P? www.ft.com/content/1fe7...

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 22

Guess we should have known. Thanks, Burnham.

Met office heat warning for Wednesday: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2026-06-24

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 20

Germany, hotbed of AI accelerationism. We're hoping to leapfrog the digital democracy phase – straight from fax-based government to rule by AGI.

Chart showing that most people in the US think effective regulation of AI is more important than developing the technology faster. Germany and Romania at the bottom of the list.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 19

It's not a short term fluctuation.

Foreign official holdings of US treasuries at the Fed since 2011

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 19

It's been a while since I last checked in on foreign official holdings of US treasuries at the Fed: We're at minus $300 billion since Liberation Day, or minus 10%. Meanwhile, as of May, treasury issuance in 2026 is up 7.7% year-on-year.

Chart showing Foreign official holdings of US treasuries at the Fed since March 2025.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 18

Surely.

The world may not like Trump's Gaza plan - but there is no alternative
If even I, an implacable opponent of the president, can accept this as the best option, then surely others can too?
HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 18

The theory that macro vibes predict World Cup team performance: refuted 100% by round one. Rank these six* by points and goal difference (and absence) and you get the exact inverse. *Assuming that England closely tracks UK in the GDP-per-capita chart.

Chart showing GDP-per-capita for six European countries since 2016.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun· Jun 17

The Commission's Joint Research Service has described Eurosky as "the type of initiative that can help establish European digital autonomy and sovereignty and is worthy of strong support by the EU." That was just two months ago. 4/ publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/h...