Ben Messenger
@benmessenger
QLDer, musician, Green, politics/elections nerd
There are a few seats where the poll implies an independent would reach the 3PP. However the Coalition wins them all. Mildu = Mildura Narracan* is an error, the poll presumed Labor would not run! I've graphed it with the data available. Hawthorn gets it's own graph due to unique 3PP party makeup.
Now seats that involve the Greens instead of One Nation. Note the difference between these two graphs that make different guesses about the effects of the Coalition HTV card. NC = Northcote In Williamstown* and Oakleigh* here I have presumptively excluded One Nation.
West Metro Asterisk on Williamstown* because I will include it again in a later graph on the presumption the Greens make the 3PP
South Metro Asterisk on Oakleigh* because I will include it again in a later graph on the presumption the Greens make the 3PP
South-Eastern Metro I have had to abbreviate Narre Warren North and Narre Warren South to not blot out other seats.
First I'll do all the Labor vs Coalition vs One Nation seats, by region because there's so many: North-Eastern Metro
Last graph... These are right wing independents in contrast to the above graphs of "Teals" and teal adjacent independents.
Labor vs One Nation vs Independent I'm getting really rough and ready with preference estimations in such unique situations.
Coalition vs One Nation vs Independent (teal) The seat labelled "BF" is Bradfield. For whatever reason it was blocking Mackellar from showing up and I happened to notice. I hope that hasn't been too common in the other graphs.
Now a graph of the apparently now rare "traditional" 3PP. Labor vs Coalition vs Greens
Some very quick 3PP work on the new DemosAU MRP! Travelling this week so I'm rushing, rarely double checking, and won't be able to fix mistakes until the weekend, fingers crossed. NSW seats where the last 3 candidates are Labor, Coalition, and One Nation
Note that the "Trump is Hitler" message never existed without centrists and pundits delivering the counter-message like in this article. So how are they so sure that it's "Trump is Hitler" that doesn't work rather than "Trump is not Hitler" watering it down?
Last of this cohort. I flipped: Lingiari from blue to red Braddon from orange to red. Net change against Redbridge +2 Labor, -1 Coalition, -1 One Nation.
Western Australia. I flipped Moore to Labor (+1 Labor, -1 One Nation). Zero Labor vs Coalition marginals! Possible that both major parties will be attacking One Nation in campaign messaging in WA as there may be little to gain attacking each-other.
Next is QLD. One Nation's strongest state. My method disagrees with Redbridge on Groom, Petrie, and Dickson which I take off One Nation (net change +2 Labor, +1 Coalition, -3 One Nation). There's also a large band number of One Nation seats that are quite marginal.
Same type of seat, but this time in Victoria. Unfortunately it's still a very squished graph. I give a large number of marginal seats to a different winner than Redbridge calculated:
I'm making an effort to graph the recent MRP by Redbridge so that marginality is visible at a glance as are 3 party dynamics (exclusion effects). I took the MRP primaries and estimate a 3PP from that. Pref flow rates are from South Australia state election.
Good? The conservative Liberals want to highlight the fact that they're abandoning one wing of their own party. Turnbull is the 5th longest serving leader Do the same for John Hewson too please (6th longest). A shame that Malcolm Fraser (3rd longest) has passed on as he'd probably be similar.
Not just in NSW and Victoria. There should be decent quantities of Liberal voters in every state who sour on the Liberals in a campaign where the conservatives in the Coalition get sucked in a whirlpool trying to outflank One Nation on the right. I would run a serious senate campaign in each state.