On Discord, Kalshi traders who had money on the line discussed ways of changing contract markets, like requiring that someone be photographed before a market is resolved. So far, Kalshi hasn’t announced any changes.

After days of leaving the Brad Pitt situation unresolved, and lots of internal debate at Kalshi, they resolved the market to Y, citing the network affiliates who falsely said Pitt was there. Some $300k was lost from traders who bet Pitt wouldn’t be there, according to Kalshi API data.

Wisconsin Elections Commission warning voters about using Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of midterms: “Voters who place bets on elections and then try to vote in that election may be subject to voter qualification … and could also result in a referral to the District Attorney”

nothing says just how destigmatized and normalized gambling has become like this stat: American adults are more likely to place a bet than read a book

the market rules spelled it out

that includes one trader who bet when odds were very low that Platner would be dropping out and ended up winning $173k on his bets

Meanwhile on Kalshi, traders made $879k betting Platner would drop out today and lost $907k betting he wouldn’t, according to internal market data. That’s just for today. The market overall had $11.5M traded on the question of when Platner would withdraw from the race.

Matt Levine: Prediction markets are “falsehood machines, in the sense that they give people incentives to make bets and then distort reality to make those bets pay off...Prediction markets can make it harder to know what is true.” www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

The Rick Rubin Polymarket ad ends with fine print: “Trading is not available in all jurisdictions. Check local regulations before trading.” (Checks local regulations) Ah yes, trading on Polymarket dot com has been banned in the US since 2022, got it

Spencer Pratt was part of this very online feedback loop where he kept going viral on X, his odds were always bullish on prediction markets and traders were obsessed with him, so I got access to Kalshi API data and ran the numbers.

And while four big trades were made in the final hours of Biden’s term, this same trader had a large position that Hunter Biden would be pardoned well before the market odds reflected that as a likelihood, suggesting the trader had some kind of access to Biden WH pardon decisions.

3.5 days into jury delibs at social media addiction trial in LA and jury just asked if there’s evidence of how often plaintiff KGM used Instagram. KGM testified that she used it quite a bit starting at age 9. Jury may see Q as relevant to filling out verdict form on Meta’s potential liability:

Peek into the twisted life of a prediction market trader: Engaging in heated debates on Discord over whether JD Vance said “American made” or “American-made” at his Michigan speech today.

Strait of Hormuz vessels at a standstill has made prediction market traders excited about a more traditional type of futures contract: the price of crude oil. “Geopol” bets related to the Iran war are “printing” and resulting in “free money,” traders are saying on Discord.

at least on “the world’s largest prediction market” scuffle, the patent and trademark office will have to choose one winner eventually…

a masterclass AND a textbook case? this post is giving written by Claude ngl

This did not happen. The judge issued a general warning about not recording with smart glasses, but she didn’t “upbraid” or call out Meta’s legal team Bookers: Getting nuances like this right is why talking to reporters who actually witnessed something, not professional pontificators, is important

The degree to which MAGA world is embracing prediction markets because Polymarket called the election early for Trump should not be overlooked.

Seeking an edge is an old trading tactic. Very old. It reminded one finance professor of people in the 1600s who would glimpse with a telescope the size of boats docking ashore to secure competitive intel about commodity imports !

Others are sharing tips on buying terrestrial TV antennas to get a millisecond advantage on “mention markets,” when traders stream live events and bet money on someone saying a word or phrase. One trader complained on Discord: “Antenna chads mog us so hard”

Another trader inspected the HTML code of Travis Scott’s website and found an embargoed release on single sales. He used this edge to out-maneuver other traders on Kalshi betting on Billboard 100 charts

After Charlie Puth was spotted in SF, one trader flew from Ohio to Santa Clara with a parabolic bird mic and a stopwatch to record rehearsals of the Super Bowl national anthem. Bettors were taking wagers on Polymarket over how long the national anthem would last. He nailed it and made many thousands

Apple News is an enormous driver of traffic for many publishers that have seen link referrals crater with the rise of AI Overviews/LLMs. If Apple News responds to this by promoting a fever swamp of far-right partisan outlets, many news sites are gonna get utterly walloped

Kalshi loves to say it is federally regulated. But here’s some perspective. Before the Kalshi boom, the CFTC listed around a dozen or so new event contract markets *a year* for crude oil futures etc Today there are 346,056 active Kalshi event contracts. 4/5 CFTC commissioner seats remain vacant.

In prediction market spaces, traders are debating whether the person who has placed a $115k Polymarket bet on the US striking Iran tonight is a pseudonymous military insider or a “degen,” a degenerate nihilist trader. If the strike happens, the payout is $4M.

Days ago someone bet $500k on Kalshi Gaga would perform at halftime show. Wow what luck. Had to be random!!

OK so now the former CEO of Tumblr is running the Washington Post. Tumblr. A company whose history is a textbook case study in corporate value destruction.