Rasmus E. Benestad
@brasmus
Climate scientist, physicist, statistics nerd, and code developer. Contributor to RealClimate.org and leader of Tekna Klima. Working for the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
This is quite impressive and a bit scary. The new seasonal forecast from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social charts.ecmwf.int/products/sea... @met.no
These seasonal outlooks from the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social look dramatic. Maybe we will see the strongest El Nino event in our life by the end of the year? What will that mean for agriculture and water supply? charts.ecmwf.int/products/sea...
Also intersting to look in hindsight how well the seasonal forecasts of last November were: not completely off...
Quite remarkable how indicative the latest seasonal forecasts from the @ecmwf.int are on a mighty El Nino by the end of this year. This needs to be watched over the summer... charts.ecmwf.int/products/sea...
Updating demo("tropicalcyclones") in our R-package 'esd' ( github.com/metno/esd) with recent tropical cyclone numbers from the North Atlantic & a method for estimating them based on the warm pool area according to my analysis from 2009 nhess.copernicus.org/articles/9/6.... A quite skillful method.
Remeber that each cyclist and passenger on trains/metro makes these traffic jams less congested. Tey also lower risks for accidents. And contribute to a healthier planet and reduce pressure on energy costs.
Oops! The prognosis for NINO3.4 is almost off the scale. The outlooks from @ecmwf.int indicate a very severe El Nino by the end of this year.
Looks like we're heading for a new El Nino by the end of the year. Maybe a strong one too. In 2023 a similar, albeit more modest outlook matched the true outcome quite well. @ecmwf.int
Latest seasonal forecasts indicates that we probably are heading for a new El Nino...
Interesting that there is such a difference between traditional numerical model prognosis and machine learning (AI) prognosis when it comes to the tropical cyclone heading for Madagascar and Mozambique.
The outlook points to a new El Nino brewing at the end of this year. A quick-and-dirty evaluation of last year's prognosis suggests that the ensemble embedded the true outcome, but only barely.
Spoiler. Denne ocdp.met.no viser at de fire siste månedene har vært ganske våte i Oslo, men også at året 2025 i helhet ikke har vært så vått fordi det var tørt på våren og om sommeren.
2025 ligger godt an til å bli det varmeste året målt på Blindern, sammen med 2020 (svart kurve). Noen dager gjenstår, og det er ikke meldt noen ordentlig kulde. Når de fargete kurvene legger seg som en regnbue, viser det hvordan temperaturen har endret seg fra 1950 (blå) til i dag (røde).
I sometimes hear that global climate models have underestimated the Arctic warming, but my own evaluation, based on empirical-statistical downscaling for Svalbard (graphic) and common EOF analysis, gives a more nuanced picture. A complicated story with what the data represent & retreating sea-ice.
Forrige innegg handlet om Oslo (beklager). Og i Oslo har temperaturen sluppet seg løs de siste dagene - vi har vel ikke sett maken til desembertemperaturer før...
Denne figuren viser at de siste årene (røde kurver) har vært våtere enn tidligere år (blå kurver), og at 2025 startet ganske tørt, men har tatt en del innpå ut på høsten. Nettsiden hvor man kan leke seg med og utforske oppdaterte norske klimadata er ocdp.met.no
Store nedbørsmengdene i Sokndal i dag omfatter det samme området i Norden som våre beregninger antyder at ekstremnedbøren vil øke mest dramatisk som følge av klimaendringene. Figuren er fra DOI:10.5194/hess-29-45-2025 (figur 7).
Really nice to see more daily rain gauge data from ECA&D (www.ecad.eu/dailydata/pr...). This wll benefit projects such as @springsproject.bsky.social
Kan anbefale sykkel, spesielt på finværsdager. Ingen frihet i køsitting. Bruk bilen med refleksjon, omtenksomhet og vett. Ikke i latskap.
Spanish like temperatures in Norwegian mountains feels a bit weird. Nordic heatwave.