Brendan Duke
@brendanvduke
Fiscal policy wonk at Center on Budget & Policy Priorities| Former Biden-Harris White House National Economic Council | Former Senate Aide | CAP/JEC Alum | Brock Purdy Fan Club Founder
We have already seen the number of kids receiving SNAP likely drop by more than 1.5M while nearly 3M fewer people have ACA marketplace coverage after health care cuts. What additional cuts for families are House Republicans plotting?
Lots of rumors swirling on a Reconciliation 3.0, but it appears House Republicans are once again considering fast-track legislation that could take away health care, nutrition assistance, or other help from low-income people. 🧵
They assume no change in revenue (unchanged from CBO projections in Feb despite SCOTUS killing many Trump tariffs!). And assume ~$1.1T increase in defense. So how do they get that deficit reduction? The answer is $9.7T in unspecified spending cuts (“allowances”).
The Budget resolution assumes we reach a 3% deficit — a reasonable fiscal goal essentially stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio. This would require ~$10T in deficit reduction over the decade (incl interest savings). But let’s see how they get there in the Senate GOP tables…
Me discussing how enormous, broad-based middle-class tax cuts threaten the progressive economic agenda with @zeeshanaleem.bsky.social. Reversing Trump’s worst policies is important and expensive—a question is whether those tax cuts will make it harder to offset reversing Trump’s policies.
Finally, the proper way to handle these deductions' irrationality and contradictions isn't just to do more tax cuts for those not getting them (including recent large middle-class tax cut proposals). The answer is to repeal them or let them expire after 2028.
Point #4: More generally, deductions of tipped and overtime income are bad tax policy. They are unfair to workers who make similar amounts of money as workers with tipped and overtime income and can promote distortions in the labor market.
Another example of the kind of tipped worker who would be a net loser from One Big Beautiful Bill.
Point #3: What also goes unsaid in the discussion about the deductions for tips and overtime is that even among the small share of workers who benefit, many could be worse off from the cuts to health care, SNAP and student loans.
Similarly, the tax cut (among those receiving a tax cut) for households making over $200k is several times that for households making under $75k from both policies. Income tax deductions just aren't a good way to help working-class households making under $75k.
Point #2: Both provisions are far more tilted to the top than most most people think. For example, over half of the tax cut from the overtime deduction goes to households making over $200k. This is hardly a populist tax policy.
Point #1: The deductions for overtime and tips make up a huge percentage of the Trump Administration's talking points on behalf of One Big Beautiful Bill. But they are much smaller than the tax cuts for those making over $500k or the cuts to Medicaid/SNAP.
New paper from me on the overhyped and misguided deductions for tips and overtime in the flawed GOP megabill. www.cbpp.org/research/fed...
Yes. Budget claims “fiscal futility is ending” but doesn’t show deficit projections. Plenty of gimmicks though: GDP growth 50%+ higher than CBO/ Fed, $1.7T more in tariff revenue than CBO projected *before* SCOTUS tariff decision; unrealistic disc funding levels over time.
Yes. While the budget doesn’t request add’l immigration enforcement $, it makes clear that the admin will aggressively ramp up detention and deportation efforts with funding provided last year. The budget cuts funding for refugee resettlement & English language acquisition.
N/A. This budget doesn’t include any explicit tax proposals. That doesn’t mean the Admin opposes extending its new temp tax breaks–we can’t tell if they have assumed extension in the tables. The budget shows tariff revs growing, with a total of ~$6T in tariff revenue over decade
No. In fact, it proposes further damage. It brags about continuing to dismantle the Dept of Education, cuts the IRS, cuts $10 billion in total from NIH and the National Science Foundation, and makes large staffing cuts at DOL (17%), USDA (24%) and more.
No. It doesn’t reverse megabill health/food assistance cuts. In fact, it cuts help for moms/kids buying fruits and veggies. It cuts the # of HHs getting help with rent & ends LIHEAP (utility help). It calls for a reconciliation process, when other cuts could come on the table.
Trump's budget's revenue projections not only appear to ignore the Supreme Court ruling invalidating many of the tariffs--they exceed CBO's tariff projections made *before the SCOTUS decision.* Not just implausible but also a sign they may not back off on tariffs anytime soon.
We should do what we did in SNAP and Medicaid on the other 78 means-tested welfare programs at a cost of $1.5T. If we did that, we could offset anything that we want to do...especially including supporting our troops in a time of conflict. -House Budget Chair Jodie Arrington on Squawk Box
The Chair of the House Budget Committee is literally saying they're going to pay for a war by cutting programs for people with low incomes.
The "cost sharing reductions" policy the House Budget Chair is discussing was included in an earlier version of One Big Beautiful Bill. Here's how it works--CBO found in 2018 that it would result in lower tax credits/more uninsured. www.cbpp.org/research/hea...
The Chair of the House Budget Committee "told us yesterday he wants defense money aded to a reconciliation bill AND PAID FOR WITH SPENDING CUTS ACROSS STATE AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS." The "cost-sharing reductions" are a way to make health care more expensive (explained in next post)
House Republicans are seriously considering cutting Americans' health care to pay for a war in the Middle East that is causing Americans to pay more for gas.
This point from a NYT-Sienna poll--widely considered the gold standard of published public opinion--on how voters prioritize taxes compared to health, food etc. has implications for elected officials considering spending trillions on middle-class tax cuts vs. other priorities like Medicaid and SNAP.
This costs more than the ten-year savings from cutting SNAP benefits in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill that will make it harder for low-income people to buy groceries
New data from @budgetlab.bsky.social peg this tax cut as costing $1 trillion, almost exclusively benefiting the top 10% and overwhelmingly benefiting the top 1%. All without Congress. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/ind...