Impressive heavy rainfall event in the Hudson Valley and Capital Region of NY. Schodack NYSM site recording 9"+ in the past 24 hours. Heavy rainfall will continue through much of today due to a slow moving low-pressure area.

It's like dusk in Albany right now with a very thick layer of smoke blocking out the sun and an orange tint to the sky. Approaching the same feel as June 2023. Smells like campfire outside.

Thick smoke, which is mostly high up in the atmosphere, has overspread Albany. The smoke is from massive wildfires burning in SW Ontario.

Tues. (7/14) severe weather setup in S Quebec & N New England is notable & unusual for this region. 00Z NSSF WRF shows supercells in the St. Lawrence region, growing into a powerful mesoscale convective system that sweeps across N New England in the evening. Significant severe hazards possible.

Band of 1-2"+/hour rainfall rates setting up from the Poconos to lower Hudson Valley to coastal CT with slow cell movement and training. Escalating flash flooding overnight, especially in hilly and urban areas.

After the heatwave, comes the water? Increasing signal for a slow moving storm system and moist airmass combining to produce heavy rainfall somewhere over the Northeast early next week.

One of the more lightning active storms I can remember in Albany. Felt like a classic Midwest evening thunderstorm.

Impressive rear inflow jet and bow echo as MCS continues to gather steam.

Impressive mesoscale convective system in southern Ontario. As instability builds, with sufficient shear, MCS looks like it should maintain itself and potentially produce a swath of damaging winds as it moves SE over Upstate NY.

Shortwave infrared animation shows the terrifying speed at which fires are spreading in the Four Corners region

EC ensemble mean high temperature for next Thursday for NYC is 103 F. That is a strong signal for extreme and dangerous heat next week.

University at Albany and University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez students launching weather balloons this week to study daily cycle of thunderstorms.

It’s so fluffy!

Freezing rain has caused widespread power outages, which will continue to increase as winds pick up behind the cold front, causing additional tree and line failures, and freezing rain continues to fall across N GA, SC, NC, and VA.

00Z HRRR forecasted flat ice accumulations are downright scary. Maximum ice corridor from TX to TN and another maximum in N GA through S Appalachia look to be areas that will see the worst of it with extensive tree & power grid damage. These areas also tend to have high socioeconomic vulnerability.

Upcoming weekend winter storm needs to be watched for potential to produce a large swath of freezing rain, with potentially significant accretion and impacts, somewhere across the South. 12Z ECMWF shows a really nasty scenario 😬.

Northern Lights putting on an impressive show tonight.

NHC 10 am update: Melissa up to 185 mph. NOAA P-3 measuring strongest flight-level winds yet, close to 175 kt, in southern eyewall.

Storm surge is a concern near and to the right of where the storm makes landfall, where the greatest onshore push of water will be. The unusual angle of approach also adds danger. One of the most vulnerable areas, near and S of Black River, will be near Melissa's landfall. (4/n)

Where the eyewall of Melissa traverses across the island, there will catastrophic wind damage. Wind gusts will be violent, resulting in destruction that is reminiscent of of a high-end tornado: well-built structures flattened, trees snapped and stripped entirely of their leaves. (3/n)

Rainfall is still a huge worry. It has already been raining for days and an additional 10-20"+ is expected. In hilly/mountainous terrain, the amount & rate of rainfall will turn streams violent. Also, there will be numerous landslides that will cut across roads and isolate communities. (2/n)

Hurricane Melissa is close to landfall in Jamaica. My thoughts are with the people of Jamaica today as they go through this terrible storm. The hazards: flooding rains, destructive winds, and storm surge... (1/n)

There's the tie for the record.

Hurricane Melissa is going after Hurricane Patricia's satellite-based intensity record.

Just when you think Hurricane Melissa is done intensifying, it says, “Are you sure?” Drop in central pressure measured by both NOAA and AF between center fixes suggests Melissa may incredibly be intensifying further.

Vorticity ring is still there in the most recent TDR swath, but it's contracted inward quickly, so agree it could be more of a merger-type event versus a slower, traditional ERC.

Deja-vu? Striking structural similarities between Melissa (left) and Milton from last year when it was at peak intensity (right). Two Category 5 'M' storms with compact, deep, intense vortices.

A dropsonde released by NOAA started with southerly winds and ended with northerly winds, implying the dropsonde made it approximately halfway around the eyewall from when it was released to when it hit the ocean. That is some incredible movement.

NOAA TDR showing evidence that a secondary eyewall is beginning to form, seen by the ring of larger vorticity and vertical velocities outside the inner eyewall. This signals Melissa has likely peaked in intensity, but the inner core wind field will begin to expand.

Waking up to Category 5 monster. Hurricane Melissa begins its move toward Jamaica today.